论文总字数：31077字

摘 要

在决策有用观越来越重要的现代经济社会中，以经营业绩信息为主的传统财务报表已经无法满足外部信息使用者们的需要，投资者们越来越渴求公司的管理层能更多的披露一些前瞻性信息来帮助其做投资决策，而公司的管理层也认识到了披露的前瞻性信息能为公司吸引更多的关注，于是国家在2001年引进了管理层讨论与分析（英文缩写MDamp;A）并逐渐完善其中的前瞻性信息披露规则。受到了多方的关注。

本文研究的是我国上市公司对公司财务业绩的预测作用，首先在制度基础上介绍了我国的的演进过程，结合理论基础和文献综述提出本文的研究假设。接着选择数据和建立模型来验证假设，其中在数据的选择上，本文采用了三个样本，样本一是不控制公司规模随机抽取的194家上市公司，样本二是沪深两市2018年A股市值前99的上市公司，样本三是随机抽取市值后50%的上市公司96家。最后处理相关数据，得出结论。研究结果表明在10%的显著性水平上，我国MDamp;A中的前瞻性信息披露有助于预测下一年度财务绩效状况，前瞻性信息披露和下一年度净资产报酬率正相关。更进一步，通过对比样本二和样本三的回归结果，可以认为 “龙头企业”的前瞻性信息披露比其他企业的前瞻性信息披露与企业的下一年度净资产报酬率相关程度更大。

关键词：前瞻性信息披露，财务绩效预测，龙头企业

ABSTRACT

In the modern economic society where the decision-making usefulness is more and more important, the traditional financial statements based on business performance information can no longer meet the needs of external information users. Investors are increasingly eager for the company's management to have more Disclosure of some forward-looking information to help them make investment decisions, and the company's management also recognized that the forward-looking information disclosed can attract more attention to the company, so the state introduced management discussion and analysis in 2001 (English abbreviation MDamp;A) ) and gradually improve the forward-looking information disclosure rules. Forward-looking information has received a lot of attention.

This paper studies the forward-looking information of listed companies in China on the financial performance of the company. Firstly, it introduces the evolution process of China's MDamp;A information disclosure system based on the system, and combines the theoretical basis and literature review to propose the research hypothesis. Then select the data and establish a model to verify the hypothesis. In the selection of the data, this paper uses three samples. The first sample is 194 listed companies that do not control the random size of the company. The second sample is the 2018 A shares of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. For the listed companies with the top 99 market value, sample 3 is 96 listed companies with last 50% of the market value. Finally, the relevant data is processed and the conclusion is drawn. The results show that at the 10% level of significance, forward-looking information disclosure in China's MDamp;A can help predict the financial performance of the next year, and forward-looking information disclosure is positively correlated with the next year's ROE. Furthermore, by comparing the regression results of Sample 2 and Sample 3, it can be considered that the forward-looking disclosure of “leading companies” is more relevant than the forward-looking information disclosure of other companies and the next year's ROE.

KEY WORDS: forward-looking information disclosure, financial performance forecasting, leading enterprises

目 录

摘 要 I

ABSTRACT II

第一章 绪论 1

1.1研究背景和意义 1

1.1.1研究背景 1

1.1.2研究意义 1

1.2研究内容和方法 2

1.2.1研究内容和框架 2

1.2.2研究方法 2

1.3相关概念界定 3

1.4可能的创新之处 3

第二章 制度背景、理论基础和文献综述 5

2.1制度背景 5

2.2理论回顾 6

2.2.1信息不对称理论 6

2.2.2信号传递理论 7

2.2.3决策有用观理论 7

2.3文献综述 7

2.3.1关于“管理层讨论与分析”信息披露充分性 8

2.3.2关于前瞻性信息有用性 9

2.4研究评述 11

第三章 理论分析和研究设计 13

3.1理论分析 13

3.2研究设计 14

3.2.1数据选择 14

3.2.2变量设计 14

3.2.3模型设计 16

第四章 实证结果分析 17

4.1描述性统计分析 17

4.2相关性分析 18

4.3多元回归统计分析 19

4.4稳健性分析 21

第五章 结论与展望 23

5.1研究结论 23

5.2展望与不足 24

参考文献 25

附 表 28

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