中韩FTA对两国贸易影响的实证研究

论文总字数：32357字

摘 要

区域经济不断融合，推动全球经济的持续向前发展。中国是最大的发展中国家，全球经济总量仅次美国，拥有巨大的资源优势和劳动力优势，一直在倡导与其他国家合作，达到互惠互利，多方共赢的局面。截止到2019年5月，中国已经和24个国家或地区签署了16个自由贸易协定，这16个贸易协定为中国的国际贸易发展提供了广阔的空间。2015年6月1日，中韩两国正式签订了《中韩自由贸易协定》，并在同年12月20日正式生效。通过数据分析比对，我们发现，2017-2018年连续两年中韩进出口额稳定增长，增长率保持在10%以上。韩国与我国经济互补性很强，加强研究FTA对中韩两国之间贸易的推动作用具有很重要的现实和理论意义。

本文首先对中韩两国贸易规模和贸易结构进行分析。自中韩FTA签署以来，两国之间的进出口贸易得到快速的发展。韩国对中国的出口产品主要以技术密集型为主,中国出口则以劳动力密集型产品为主。其次，本文通过引入比较优势理论以及自由贸易区理论，对FTA成员国之间的贸易影响效应进行了理论分析，并指出中韩两国签署FTA可以减少两国进出口贸易过程中的关税壁垒，可以充分发挥两国各自的比较优势。最后，本文通过贸易引力模型，选择国民生产总值、国家人口总数、国家之间的距离等作为变量，并引入虚拟变量FTA，首先对中国和20个重要的贸易合作伙伴从2001年-2017年的进出口贸易数据进行回归结果分析，得出各变量的影响系数，然后计算中韩两国之间理论模拟出口额，再与实际出口额比较得出中韩两国从2001年至2017之间的出口贸易潜力值。分析结果可以看出，中韩FTA对两国的贸易有着积极的推动作用，并且自中韩FTA签署以来，中国对韩国的出口潜力越来越大。基于分析结果，本文针对中韩贸易未来发展提出了四点建议1、友好协商，尽可能开放市场，发挥两国的比较优势;2、加大技术投入，鼓励技术创新;3、促进互联网行业的合作;4、建立争端解决机制。

关键词：FTA； 进出口贸易；中国； 韩国； 贸易引力模型

Abstract

With the steady development of the international economy, the regional economy continues to merge. As the largest developing country and the second largest economy in the world, China has enormous resource advantages and labor advantages, and has been advocating cooperation with other countries to achieve a mutually beneficial and multi-win situation. As of May 2019, China had signed 16 free trade agreements with 24 countries or regions, which provided broad space for China’s international trade development. On June 1, 2015, China and South Korea formally signed the "China-South Korea Free Trade Agreement" and become effective on December 20 of the same year. Through data testing, we found that the import and export volume of China and South Korea has been growing steadily for two consecutive years from 2017 to 2018, and the growth rate has remained above 10%. South Korea and China's economy are highly complementary at all. It is of great practical and theoretical meaning to strengthen the study of FTA’s role in promoting trade between the two countries.

This paper first analyzed the trade scale and trade structure between the two countries. Since the signing of the China-South Korea FTA, the import and export trade between South Korea and China has fast-growing. South Korea mainly exports technology-intensive products to China, while China dominantly exports labor-intensive products. Secondly, this paper analyzed the trade impact effect of FTA member countries by introducing comparative advantage and free trade theory, then points out that the signing of FTA between China and South Korea can reduce tariff barriers in the process of import and export trade between the two countries, then can give full play to their respective comparative advantages. Finally, through the trade gravity model, this paper chose GDP, national population, distance between countries as variables, and introduces the fictitious variable FTA. The first is analyzed the regression results of the trade data of China and 20 important trading partners from 2001 to 2017,and the influence coefficient of each variable is obtained. Then the theoretical simulation export volume between China and South Korea is calculated. The potential value of export trade between China and South Korea from 2001 to 2017 is obtained by comparing the proposed export volume with the actual export volume. The analysis results show that the China-South Korea FTA has a positive role in promoting trade between the two countries, and since the signing of the China-South Korea FTA, China's export potential to South Korea has grown.

Based on the empirical analysis of the potential value of Sino-Korea trade, this paper proposes four suggestions for the future development of Sino-Korean trade. 1. Friendly consultation, opening up the market as far as possible; 2. Increase investment in technology and encourage technological innovation; 3. Promote the Internet industry. Cooperation; 4. Establish a dispute resolution mechanism.

KEY WORDS: FTA; import and export trade; China; Korea; trade gravity mode

目 录

摘要 ………………………………………………………………………………………………………Ⅰ

Abstract ……………………………………………………………………………………………… Ⅱ

第一章 绪论 ……………………………………………………………………………………………1

• 1. 研究背景与意义 ……………………………………………………………………1
     1. 研究背景 ……………………………………………………………………1
     2. 研究意义 …………………………………………………………………1
  2. 国内外研究现状 ………………………………………………………………………2
     1. 国外研究现状 ……………………………………………………………2
     2. 国内研究现状 ……………………………………………………………3

第二章 中韩两国贸易现状研究 ………………………………………………………………4

2.1 中韩两国贸易规模研究 …………………………………………………………4

2.2 中韩两国贸易结构研究 ………………………………………………………………5

第三章 中韩FTA对两国贸易影响的理论分析 ………………………………………………8

3.1 中韩FTA主要内容 ……………………………………………………………8

3.2 中韩FTA理论研究 ……………………………………………………………………8

3.2.1 比较优势理论 ………………………………………… ……………………8

3.2.2 自由贸易区理论 …………………………………………………………9

3.3 中韩FTA签署的影响 ……………………………………………………………………9

3.3.1 中韩FTA签署的积极影响 ……………… ………………………………9

3.3.2 中韩FTA签署的消极影响 ………………………………………………10

第四章 中韩FTA对两国贸易影响的实证分析 …………………………………11

4.1 模型介绍 …………………………………………………………………………11

4.2 模型构建 …………………………………………………………………………………11

4.3 样本选取及数据来源 ……………………………………………………………………12

4.3.1 样本选择依据 ……………………………………………………… ………12

4.3.2 样本选取 …………………………………………………………………12

4.3.3 数据来源 …………………………………………………………………13

4.4 实证研究 …………………………………………………………………………………13

4.4.1 单位跟检验 …………………………………………………… ………13

4.4.2 回归分析 …………………………………………………………………14

4.4.3 中国向韩国出口潜力值 ………………………………………………16

第五章 研究结论与政策建议 ………………………………………………………………18

5.1 研究结论 …………………………………………………………………………18

5.2 政策建议 …………………………………………………………………………………19

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参考文献（References） …………………………………………………………………………21

致谢 …………………………………………………………………………………………23

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