论文总字数：24953字

摘 要

随着一系列监管文件的下发，我国互联网消费金融迎来监管“寒冬”，进入新的发展阶段，行业面临整顿与洗牌，交易规模增长速度放缓。但随着居民生活水平的提高，金融观念的渗透，我国居民的消费需求和消费支出依旧不断增加，加之我国消费信贷占GDP比例仍和美国有较大差距，我国互联网消费金融仍有万亿市场待挖掘。

消费场景之争愈加激烈。有场景依托的消费贷业务逐渐突显出市场优势，占有市场份额不断扩大。电子商务平台继续保持自己场景优势，同时持续拓展线上线下场景。银行凭借自己资本优势和风控经验，积极与展开合作、创新，加快自身消费金融互联网化速度。分期购物平台开始细分场景，开始着眼于教育、家装、租房、旅游等这些年发展迅速的领域。持牌消费金融机构“躺着赚钱”，P2P平台“高风险、高收益”的时代都在逐步远去，如何寻求新的突破是现阶段他们面临的问题。完善监管制度和信用体系，提高风控水平，在严监管之下寻求出路与方向，是我国互联网消费金融目前面临的问题。

本文一共分为四部分，核心章节为第二、三、四、五部分，分别阐述了我国消费金融发展现状、我国互联网消费金融发展影响因素分析、我国互联网消费金融发展建议。通过2003-2017年全国的相关数据，以及2007-2017年一级行政区的数据，利用最小二乘法分析了影响互联网消费金融发展的主要因素，通过对计量模型的修正，最终得到，人们生活水平的提高、产业结构的优化以及风控水平的提高，都将有效促进消费金融发展。

关键词：互联网金融，消费金融，影响因素

ABSTRACT

With the issuance of a series of regulatory documents, China's Internet consumer finance ushered in a regulatory "winter", entering a new development stage, the industry is facing reorganization and reshuffle, the growth rate of transaction size slowed down. However, with the improvement of residents' living standards and the penetration of financial concepts, the consumption demand and consumption expenditure of Chinese residents continue to increase. In addition, there is still a large gap between the proportion of consumer credit in GDP and that of the United States. China still has a trillion market of Internet consumer finance to be tapped.

The battle over the consumption scene is getting fiercer. The consumer loan business that has the scene to rely on gradually highlights the market advantage, occupies the market share to expand unceasingly. E-commerce platforms continue to maintain their own scene advantages, and continue to expand the online and offline scene. Banks, relying on their own capital advantages and risk control experience, actively cooperate and innovate to speed up the Internet of their own consumer finance. Shopping platform began to segment the scene, began to focus on education, home decoration, rental, tourism and other areas that have developed rapidly in recent years. Licensed consumer financial institutions "make money lying down", P2P platforms "high-risk, high yield" era is gradually fading away, how to seek new breakthroughs is the current stage of their problems. China's Internet consumer finance is currently facing the problem of perfecting the supervision system and credit system, raising the level of risk control, and seeking the way and direction under strict supervision.

This paper is divided into four parts, the core chapter is the second, third, fourth, five parts, respectively elaborated the current situation of China's consumer finance development, China's Internet consumer finance development factors analysis, China's Internet consumer finance development recommendations. Through the relevant data, 2003-2017 national and provincial data from 2007 to 2017, using the least-squares method are analyzed the main factors affecting the development of the Internet consumer finance, through to the econometric model correction, eventually, people living standard rise, optimization of the industrial structure and raise the level of risk control will effectively promote the development of consumer finance.

KEY WORDS: Internet finance, consumer finance, influencing factors

目 录

摘要 Ⅰ

Abstract Ⅰ

第一章 绪论 1

1.1 研究背景 1

1.2 文献综述 1

1.3 论文研究方法及主要内容 2

1.3.1 研究方法 2

1.3.2主要内容 2

第二章 我国互联网消费金融发展现状 4

2.1 我国互联网消费金融发展概况 4

2.2 我国互联网消费金融市场格局 5

2.2.1 行业结构变化 5

2.2.2 参与者市场占有率变化 6

2.3 典型案例分析 9

2.3.1 蚂蚁花呗和京东白条 9

2.3.2 招商银行 9

第三章 我国消费金融发展影响因素及实证研究 10

3.1 影响因素 11

3.2 数据来源及统计分析 14

3.2.1 数据来源和变量选择 14

3.2.2 数据统计分析 15

3.3 模型构建 16

第四章 实证结果分析 18

4.1 全国互联网消费金融影响因素分析 18

4.1.1 实证结果 18

4.1.2 实证结果分析 18

4.2 省级行政区互联网消费金融影响因素分析 19

4.3 分地区互联网消费金融影响因素分析 21

第五章 我国互联网消费金融发展建议 23

5.1 因地制宜地发展 23

5.2 全面优化产业结构 23

5.3 提高风控能力和水平 24

参考文献 25

致谢 26

第一章 绪论

1.1研究背景

消费金融从金融产品创新、扩大内需和实现普惠金融的角度看都具有重大意义（冯科，2016）。我国国内消费在 GDP 中所占比例重远低于美国、欧盟、日本等世界发达经济体的水平。通过与发达经济体的消费金融情况对比，我国消费金融大有可为。

其中主要原因之一是过去我国居民可支配收入较低，在社会保障体系还不健全的情况下，居民不敢过多消费不敢超前消费。如今我国经济飞速发展，同时伴随着互联网技术与金融科技发展，我国居民的消费需求和消费支出不断增加，人们的消费模式也在发生质变，由以前的“量入为出”的保守消费方式，转变为超前消费、个性消费。有了更广泛的消费信贷的需求（张曾博等，2019）。

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