进口技术复杂度对经济增长的影响效应

论文总字数：28071字

摘 要

进口作为国际贸易中的重要环节，在经济发展过程中起着不可或缺的作用，而进口贸易中涵盖的技术复杂度这一概念，能够反映进口商品的技术含量和商品结构，对经济增长带来一定的影响。改革开放以来尤其是中国加入世界贸易组织到至今，对外开放程度不断加深，经济飞速发展，进出口贸易成为经济学研究的热门方向之一。与此同时伴随着近年来“一带一路”的提出和推行，我国对外开放的深度和广度进一步得到提升，对进口政策的优化和改革受到更多人关注，特别是进口技术复杂度，相对比出口技术复杂度而言受到的关注侧重较少。对此本文以进口技术复杂度为切入口，针对与之相关的进口贸易、进口商品结构进行简要分析，引出我国进口技术复杂度发展趋势和现状。

在说明了进口技术复杂度与经济增长之间的内在联系之后，本文通过收集的从1995年到2014年之间我国的相关数据，将进口技术复杂度与进口、消费和投资对经济增长的影响进行实证分析。实证结果表明了服务进口贸易，这类包括信息、计算机等技术含量相对较高的进口类别的技术复杂度对经济增长有较为明显的促进作用，同时进口、消费和投资与经济增长之间也有程度不同的正向关联度。旨在通过论证进口技术复杂度对经济增长的正向影响作用，从而为我国经济发展注入新的推动力给予理论支撑，为经济发展与进口贸易的扩进提供更有力的政策性建议。

关键词：进口 进口技术复杂度 经济增长

Abstract

As an important link in international trade, import plays an indispensable role in the process of economic development. The technical complexity covered by import trade can reflect the technical content and commodity structure of imported goods, and bring certain impact on economic growth. Since the reform and opening up, especially since China's accession to the world trade organization, the degree of opening up to the outside world has been deepening and the economy has been developing rapidly. Import and export trade has become one of the hot directions of economics research. At the same time, with the proposal and implementation of "One Belt And One Road" in recent years, the depth and breadth of China's opening to the outside world have been further improved, and the optimization and reform of import policy has attracted more attention, especially the technical complexity of import, which has received less attention than that of export. This paper takes imported technical complexity as the entry point, makes a brief analysis of related import trade and import commodity structure, and leads to the development trend and current situation of imported technical complexity in China.

After explaining the internal relationship between import technological complexity and economic growth, this paper conducts an empirical analysis of the impact of import technological complexity and import, consumption and investment on economic growth through the collection of relevant data in China from 1995 to 2014. The empirical results show that the technical complexity of the import trade of services, which includes information, computer and other relatively high technical content, has a significant promoting effect on economic growth, and there is also a positive correlation between import, consumption and investment and economic growth to different degrees. The purpose is to prove the positive effect of technical complexity of imports on economic growth, so as to provide theoretical support for injecting new impetus into China's economic development and provide more powerful policy Suggestions for economic development and the expansion of import trade.

Key words: import, import technical complexity, economic growth

目 录

摘 要 Ⅰ

Abstract Ⅱ

第一章 绪论 1

1.1选题背景 1

1.2选题意义 2

1.3研究思路 3

1.4关键点和难点 3

第二章 理论基础与文献综述 4

2.1理论基础 4

2.1.1比较优势理论 4

2.1.2要素禀赋理论 4

2.1.3技术差距论 4

2.2文献综述 5

2.2.1关于进口技术复杂度 5

2.2.2技术复杂度的测算 5

2.2.3技术复杂度对经济增长的影响 6

2.2.4文献综评 6

第三章 我国进口技术复杂度的演变和测度 8

3.1中国进口贸易 8

3.2进口商品技术结构 9

3.3进口技术复杂度的测算 10

3.4测算结果分析 11

第四章 进口技术复杂度对经济增长的机制说明和实证分析 13

4.1指标选取和模型构建 13

4.1.1技术复杂度、技术差距与经济增长 13

4.1.2技术复杂度、人力资本与经济增长 13

4.1.3进口技术复杂度与经济增长之间机理 13

4.2指标选取和模型构建 14

4.2.1选择指标 14

4.2.2建立模型 14

4.3单位根检验与协整检验 15

4.3.1单位根检验与协整 15

4.3.2协整检验 15

4.4新模型回归与检验 16

4.4.1新模型回归 16

4.4.2平稳性检验 16

4.4.3自相关检验 17

4.4.4多重共线性检验 17

4.5回归结果分析 17

第五章 结论与政策建议 18

5.1结论 18

5.2政策建议 18

致 谢 21

参考文献 22

第一章 绪论

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