论文总字数：36178字

摘 要

随着我国城市化进程不断加快，区域一体化协同发展已成为未来我国经济发展的必然趋势，其发展需要以高效、快速、便捷的交通运输体系为支撑。为此需要把握不同交通方式的基本需求，引导各出行方式良性竞争，实现出行结构优化，更好的配合区域一体化的建设。因此，区域出行结构的分析与优化也开始成为现阶段交通领域的一个重要研究方向。本文旨在提出一套对实际出行需求描述更为精确且更为实用的出行方式消耗计算模型与出行结构优化方法，在理论和实践层面均有较高的研究价值。

本文从交通特性及经济特性两方面分析不同出行方式（汽车、火车和飞机）的基本属性，包括出行时间、出行费用、出行距离等，探究各属性间的相关关系。在此基础上，从系统层面出发，计算不同出行方式的广义消耗函数，本文定义广义消耗包括时间消耗、空间消耗、金钱消耗以及其他消耗。在广义消耗给定的情况下，充分考虑影响出行结构的供给、需求以及政策因素，构建系统区域交通出行结构优化模型，并获得两种出行方式下区域交通最优出行结构的解析解，进而实现出行方式结构的优化与调整。

本文选择南京-北京出行结构的优化作为案例进行分析，以早高峰时段为例，运用lingo及MATLAB对模型进行求解，给出南京市出行结构的优化方案，同时在有空间消耗限制的条件下进行最优出行结构的敏感性分析，确定了相关变量对出行结构的影响程度。

关键词：区域交通，广义消耗，多方式交通系统，区域出行结构优化，敏感性分析

Abstract

As China's urbanization process continues to accelerate, the coordinated development of regional integration has become an inevitable trend of China's economic development in the future, and its development needs to be supported by an efficient, fast and convenient transportation system. To this end, it is necessary to grasp the basic needs of different modes of transportation, guide the benign competition of various modes of travel, optimize the travel structure, and better cooperate with the construction of regional integration. Therefore, the analysis and optimization of regional travel structure has also become an important research direction in the current transportation field. The purpose of this paper is to propose a more accurate and practical travel mode consumption calculation model and travel structure optimization method, which has high research value both in theory and in practice.

This paper analyses the basic attributes of different modes of travel (automobiles, trains and airplanes) from traffic characteristics and economic characteristics, including travel time, travel cost, travel distance and so on, and explores the correlation among these attributes. On this basis, from the system level, the generalized consumption functions of different travel modes are calculated. This paper defines the generalized consumption including time consumption, space consumption, money consumption and other consumption. Given the generalized consumption, considering the supply, demand and policy factors affecting the travel structure, an optimization model of regional traffic structure is constructed, and the analytical solutions of the optimal travel structure of regional traffic under the two modes of travel are obtained, thus realizing the optimization and adjustment of the travel mode structure.

This paper chooses the optimization of Nanjing-Beijing travel structure as a case study, takes the early peak period as an example, uses lingo and MATLAB to solve the model, gives the optimization scheme of Nanjing travel structure, and carries out sensitivity analysis of the optimal travel structure under the condition of space consumption restriction, determines the degree of the influence of relevant variables on the travel structure.

KEY WORDS: regional traffic, generalized consumption, multimodal traffic system, regional travel structure optimization, sensitivity analysis

目 录

摘 要 I

Abstract II

第一章 绪论 1

1.1研究背景及意义 1

1.1.1研究背景 1

1.1.2研究意义 1

1.2文献综述 1

1.2.1区域出行方式选择行为 2

1.2.2出行方式成本消耗 2

1.2.3区域出行交通结构优化模型 3

1.2.4国内外研究现状的不足 4

1.3论文内容和技术路线 4

1.3.1论文内容 4

1.3.2技术路线 5

1.4本章小结 5

第二章 区域交通出行方式的特征分析 6

2.1区域交通出行结构 6

2.1.1区域交通出行结构现状 6

2.1.2区域交通出行结构影响因素 6

2.2区域交通出行方式基本属性分析 8

2.2.1区域交通出行方式交通特性 8

2.2.2区域交通出行方式经济特性 10

2.3本章小结 12

第三章 区域交通出行结构优化模型 13

3.1区域交通最优出行结构 13

3.1.1系统区域交通最优出行结构 13

3.1.2用户区域交通最优出行结构 13

3.2区域交通出行方式消耗 13

3.2.1系统层面出行消耗 13

3.2.2各出行方式出行消耗分析 14

3.3区域交通出行结构优化模型 21

3.3.1区域出行结构优化模型构建 21

3.3.2出行结构优化模型解析解 22

3.4本章小结 23

第四章 系统区域出行结构优化模型应用及分析 25

4.1典型案例 25

4.1.1南京-北京各出行方式属性数据获取 25

4.1.2模型求解及结果分析 33

4.2有空间消耗限制下的最优出行结构分析 35

4.3本章小结 37

第五章 总结与展望 38

5.1研究成果与结论 38

5.2创新点 39

5.3展望 39

参考文献 41

致 谢 43

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