基于农业供给侧结构性改革背景下的农业政策调整对农业上市公司业绩影响的研究

论文总字数：23630字

摘 要

作为农业突出代表的农业上市公司，其经营绩效的好坏，关系到我国农业的健康发展。农业上市公司的业绩发展不仅取决于管理者的经营，也受到农业政策的影响。在我国农业进行供给侧结构性改革时期，关注农业上市公司的发展对推进农业供给侧结构性改革有重要意义。

本文对我国实施农业供给侧结构性改革以来的政策调整以及农业政策对农业上市公司业绩影响的途径进行分析总结，选取2014-2017年沪深53家农业上市公司财务数据为研究对象，运用因子分析法从偿债、盈利、营运、发展等方面对农业上市公司进行综合业绩分析，分析结果发现：农业供给侧结构性改革以来农业上市公司在偿债能力、营运能力、发展能力等方面有所改善，在盈利能力方面有所下降，总体综合业绩虽有改善，但还是处于较低水平。

通过分析，本文得出结论：农业供给侧结构性改革以来的相关政策对农业上市公司发展能力影响最为显著，对盈利能力有不利影响，对业绩的总体影响是有利的，但影响较小。因此本文提出相应的建议：国家应充分重视农业上市公司在农业发展中的积极作用，制订相关政策推动农业上市公司发展；农业上市公司应全面协调平衡发展，在农业供给侧结构性改革中积极打造品牌农业，抓住政策机遇大力发展。

关键词：农业供给侧结构性改革，农业政策调整，农业上市公司业绩，因子分析法

Abstract

 As an agricultural listed company, the performance of agricultural listed companies is related to the healthy development of our country's agriculture. The performance of agricultural listed companies depends not only on their management but also on their agricultural policies. In the period of China's agricultural supply-side structural reform, attention to the development of agricultural listed companies is of great significance in promoting the structural reform of the agricultural supply side.

This article analyzes and summarizes the policy adjustments that have taken place since the implementation of structural reforms in the agricultural supply side of China and the impact of agricultural policies on the performance of agricultural listed companies. We have selected financial data from 53 agricultural listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen in 2014-2017 as research objects and applied factor analysis. The law analyzes the comprehensive performance of listed agricultural companies from the perspectives of debt repayment, profitability, operations, and development. The analysis found that agricultural listed companies have improved their solvency, operating capacity, and development capacity since the structural reform of the agricultural supply side. In terms of profitability, the overall performance has improved, but it is still at a relatively low level.

Through analysis, this paper concludes that the relevant policies since the structural reform of the agricultural supply side have the most significant impact on the development capabilities of listed agricultural companies, have an adverse impact on profitability, and have an overall impact on performance, but have less impact. Therefore, this paper puts forward corresponding suggestions: the state should pay full attention to the active role of agricultural listed companies in agricultural development, formulate relevant policies to promote the development of agricultural listed companies. Agricultural listed companies should fully coordinate and balance development, actively build brand agriculture in the structural reform of the agricultural supply side, and seize policy opportunities to develop vigorously.

KEY WORDS: agricultural supply-side structural reform, agricultural policy adjustment, agricultural listed company performance, factor analysis

目 录

摘要 I

Abstract II

第一章 绪论 1

1.1研究背景及意义 1

1.1.1研究背景 1

1.1.2研究意义 1

1.2研究方法 2

1.3研究内容与框架 2

1.4本文可能的创新 4

第二章 相关研究综述 5

2.1关于农业政策对农业上市公司绩效影响的研究 5

2.2 因子分析法研究综述 5

2.3 现有文献简要评述 6

第三章 农业供给侧结构性改革的政策分析 7

3.1农业供给侧结构性改革介绍 7

3.1.1农业供给侧结构性改革的背景 8

3.1.2农业供给侧结构性改革的改革途径 8

3.2农业供给侧结构性改革中农业政策调整的内容 9

第四章 农业政策调整对农业上市公司业绩影响的传导机制 11

第五章 农业上市公司业绩分析 13

5.1 分析方法的选择与步骤 13

5.1.1因子分析法 13

5.1.2因子分析法的步骤 13

5.2农业上市公司业绩分析指标选择 13

5.3样本数据选择 14

5.4因子分析 15

5.4.1样本数据相关性检验 15

5.4.2公共因子数量的确定 16

5.4.3公共因子的解释与命名 17

5.4.4求解因子得分 17

5.4.5计算综合业绩得分 19

5.5结果分析 19

第六章 研究结论及建议 22

6.1结论 22

6.2建议 22

6.2.1对农业供给侧结构性改革政策调整的建议 22

6.2.2对农业上市公司的建议 23

6.3论文研究不足与展望 23

致 谢 24

参考文献 25

1. 绪论

1.1研究背景及意义

1.1.1研究背景

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