论文总字数：26995字

摘 要

现今，随着国家政策的支持和个人保健意识的增强，我国商业健康保险蓬勃发展，健康险产品种类日益丰富，在受到消费者热捧的同时也成为了保险行业发展最为迅速的一类险种。然而，在高速增长的背景下，现有专业健康险公司的业绩表现尚不突出，面临着较大的盈利困境。基于此，本文选取国内4家专业健康险公司作为研究对象，运用其2010-2016年的盈利能力、偿债能力、投资收益比、退保率等变量构成的面板数据，建立PVAR模型分析各个变量之间的动态关系，并将国内22家人身险公司面板数据的PVAR模型回归结果与之对比，突出健康险公司的特点和问题所在。结果表明，健康险公司的盈利能力、投资收益占比和退保率均存在着自我强化机制。前期成本收入比与当期投资收益比有负向关系，意味着前期盈利状况越弱，当期投资收益的收入贡献度越高。此外，前期偿债能力与当期成本收入比之间存在显著的负相关关系，表示着健康险公司前期较高的风险管理水平会制约当期盈利表现，公司经营面临着风险管理和盈利能力的冲突问题。基于回归分析结果，本文对健康险公司在主营业务经营、投资活动、风险管理等方面提出了几点针对性建议：第一，健康险公司亟需完善其保险产品体系，促进产品质量升级和业务创新，提升经营业务质量。第二，健康险公司应当遵循“保险姓保”理念，降低对投资的依赖程度，优化盈利模式。第三，健康险公司应当优化筹资结构，缓解风险管理和盈利能力之间的对立关系。

关键词：健康险公司、盈利能力、风险管理、PVAR

Abstract

Nowadays, with the support of national policies and the enhancement of people’s health awareness, China’s private health insurance is booming. Various types of health insurance products step into the market, and the private health insurance gradually becomes an outstanding type in the insurance industry. However, the performance of China’s private health insurance companies is not yet satisfying, and these companies are faced with a serious problem in their profitability. Based on this, this paper focuses on four domestic private health insurance companies, and uses their financial data in the period of 2010-2016 to analyze their profitability and risk management problems. The data of 22 life insurance companies are also analyzed in the same way to make comparisons so that the characteristics and problems of private health insurance companies can be highlighted. This paper uses 4 variables including cost-to-income ratio, investment income ratio, solvency and withdraw rate. PVAR model is used to analyze the dynamic relationships among variables. The results show that there are self-reinforcing mechanisms for private health insurance companies’ profitability, investment income ratio and withdraw rate. The cost-to-income ratio in the previous period has a negative correlation with the current investment income ratio, which means the lower the profitability in the previous period, the higher the proportion of revenue from investment income is in this period. In addition, there is a significant negative relationship between the solvency in the previous period and current cost-to-income ratio. It indicates that the better risk management of private health insurance companies in the previous period is associated with a lower profitability at present, which means that these companies have to balance risk management and profitability. Based on the results of empirical analysis, this paper puts forward some suggestions for private health insurance companies. First, the companies should make innovations in their insurance products and improve the quality of services, so that they can be more competitive in the market. Second, the companies should attach more attention to the improvement of their profit models with less addiction in investment. Third, the companies should build a flexible funding structure to deliver a premium solution to balancing profitability and solvency.

Keywords: health insurance companies, profitability, risk management, PVAR model.

目 录

摘 要 I

Abstract II

第一章 引言 1

1.1 选题背景 1

1.2 选题意义 3

1.3 研究方法与研究框架 3

1.4可能的创新点和不足 4

第二章 文献综述 5

2.1 基于盈利能力的文献综述 5

2.2基于风险管理的文献综述 6

2.3 文献简述 6

第三章 PVAR模型构建与变量选取 8

3.1 PVAR模型简介 8

3.2 模型构建 8

3.3 样本和描述性统计 9

3.4 单位根检验 9

第四章 实证分析 11

4.1 健康险公司实证分析 11

4.1.1 参数估计 11

4.1.2方差分解 12

4.1.3 脉冲响应 13

4.2 人身险公司实证结果 14

4.2.1 参数估计 14

4.2.2 方差分解 15

4.2.3 脉冲响应 17

4.3实证小结 18

第五章 结论及政策建议 20

5.1 本文的主要结论 20

5.2 健康险公司发展建议 20

参考文献 22

致 谢 24

健康保险公司盈利能力和风险管理研究：来自中国市场的新证据

第一章 引言

1.1 选题背景

商业保险按险种划分可分为财产险和人身险两大类，健康险则是人身险类保险的一个分支（如图1-1所示），对因身体意外伤害或疾病所导致的医疗费用支出和某些特定经济损失进行承保。商业健康保险是当前医疗体系的有力补充，其通过提供丰富的保险产品和多样化的医疗保险服务，满足了不同群体对保险的差异化需求，有效扩充了保险体系的覆盖面，促进了医疗资源的优化配置。

图1-1 商业保险分类图

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