“一带一路”沿线国家电力贸易供需格局研究

论文总字数：24441字

摘 要

目前，中国电力企业在世界占有重要地位，成为仅次于美国的第二重要电力供应国，积极寻求对外投资。一带一路战略为中国展开与沿线国家的电力贸易提供了平台。对“一带一路”沿线国家的电力需求格局进行分析，不仅有助于调整我国电力行业结构，为建设统一开放的市场化电力体系，深化电力市场改革提供试点建议。更有助于我国从实际出发，对电力投资规模进行合理规划，进一步提高能源利用效率，扩大投资收益。对中国加强跨境电力贸易建设，以超高效率参与到电网互联的浪潮，便利本国以及“一带一路”沿线国家的人民等有着极其深远的影响和意义。

基于此，本文在分析沿线国家电力贸易现状基础上，建立以总用电量为被解释变量，总GDP、城市人口占比、单位能耗和总人口为解释变量的面板模型，选择54个一带一路国家作为研究对象，结果表明，以上几种变量的提高均会促进电力需求，提出中国在一带一路电力贸易中应选择经济水平高和人口多国家进行电力贸易投资，互惠共利发展。

关键词：一带一路；GDP；电力贸易；能耗

The Study of Electricity Trade’s Supply and Demand Pattern of The Countries along The belt and Road Initiative Strategy

14Y14102 Qian Yutong

Supervised by Gu Xin

ABSTRACT

At present, China's power enterprises occupy an important position in the world, become the second most important power supply country after the United States, and actively seek foreign investment. The belt and road initiative strategy provides a platform for China to launch electricity trade with countries along the line. The analysis of the power trade supply and demand pattern of the countries along the " the belt and road initiative" will not only help to adjust the structure of China's power industry, but also provide pilot suggestions for the construction of a unified and open market-oriented power system and deepening the reform of the power market. More conducive to China from the actual point of view, the power investment scale of rational planning, further improve the efficiency of energy utilization, expand investment income. It has far-reaching influence and significance for China to strengthen the construction of cross-border power trade, participate in the wave of power grid interconnection with high efficiency, and facilitate the people of China and the countries along the " the belt and road initiative" line.

Based on the analysis of the current situation of power trade in the countries along the line, this paper establishes a panel model with GDP, population, the proportion of urban population and energy intensity level of primary energy and selects 54 countries along The belt and Road Initiative Strategy as the research objects. the results show that all the variables above will promote the demand for power. It is pointed out that China should choose the countries with high economic level and large population to invest in power trade in the belt and road initiative for mutual benefit and development.

Keywords: the belt and road initiative; GDP; Electricity trade; Energy consumption

目 录

摘要 ……………………………………………………………………………………………… Ⅰ

Abstract ………………………………………………………………………………………… Ⅱ

第一章 绪论 ………………………………………………………………………… 1

1.1 选题背景 ………………………………………………………………… 1

1.2 研究意义 ………………………………………………………………… 2

第二章 文献综述 …………………………………………………………………… 2

2.1 国内的相关研究 …………………………………………………………… 2

2.2 国外的相关研究 …………………………………………………………… 3

第三章 相关贸易政策 ………………………………………………………………… 4

3.1 电力贸易的形式及推广 …………………………………………………… 4

3.2 一带一路政策方针介绍 …………………………………………………… 5

第四章 一带一路沿线国家电力现状 ………………………………………………… 6

4.1 低等收入水平国家 ………………………………………………………… 6

4.2 中等收入水平国家 ………………………………………………………… 7

4.3 高等收入水平国家 ………………………………………………………… 10

第五章 实证建模与分析 ……………………………………………………………… 12

5.1 电力贸易供需格局研究方法 ……………………………………………… 12

5.2 模型建立 …………………………………………………………………… 12

5.2.1 数据来源 ………………………………………………………… 12

5.2.2 因素分析 ………………………………………………………… 12

5.2.3 变量设置 ………………………………………………………… 13

5.3 回归过程及结果分析 ……………………………………………………… 13

第六章 总结与展望 …………………………………………………………………… 15

6.1 实证总结 …………………………………………………………………… 15

6.2 中国电力贸易现状总结 …………………………………………………… 15

6.3 政策总结 …………………………………………………………………… 16

6.3.1 搭建和谐的国际环境 …………………………………………… 16

6.3.2 加强区域经济和贸易往来 ……………………………………… 16

6.3.3 加强货币合作，促进各国之间的资金互动 …………………… 16

6.3.4 以大型电力项目合作为依托，加强与沿线国家的投资合作 … 16

6.4 结语 ………………………………………………………………………… 16

致谢 …………………………………………………………………………………… 17

参考文献（References） ……………………………………………………………… 17

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