论文总字数：35240字

摘 要

长江有着“黄金水道”之称，长江流域是我国重要的经济腹地，流域沿线地区经济发达、资源丰富、人口和城市相对集中，具有独特的发展优势和巨大的增长潜力。2014年国务院发布《关于依托黄金水道推动长江经济带发展的指导意见》，长江经济带作为我国重要的工业走廊之一，迎来新的发展机遇与挑战。党中央提倡经济的高质量发展，提出了空间优化、结构转型等要求，并以上海为代表的长三角地区作为重要的抓手，引领长江经济带的快速高质量的发展。本文运用理论论证与实证检验、定量与定性分析以及协整分析相结合的方法，分析长江经济带发展现状，指出长三角地区的发展优势，以及发展过程中合作机制存在的缺陷与不足，并根据现实提出合理的政策建议。

首先从总体来看，长江经济带体经济体量巨大，人力资源与创新能力领先，产业分布有各自的特色。但是存在区域发展不平衡，未充分利用水道优势等问题。其次，从上中下游地区经济来看，在经济总量、经济开放程度、金融市场规模等长三角地区处于领先地位。长三角相比于中游和上游产业结构更加合理。通过协整分析可知，长江经济带上、中、下游地区的国内生产总值、市场开放程度、科技创新能力、之间不存在协整关系，即不存在均衡关系。而长江经济带各地区的产业结构、金融市场规模存在协整关系，形成联动发展。长三角地区能通过产业转移等方式带动中游产业结构转变，通过人才、资本引流政策等带动上游金融市场的发展。最后提出从政府、企业、联动机制等角度提出政策建议。认为应当一体化布局，通过建立长期的高层发展论坛和会议，设立内容多样的区域联盟，长三角与中上游地区企业进行对接，增强各地区之间的合作联系，加速长江经济带的联动发展。

关键词：流域经济，长江经济带，协整分析

Abstract

The Yangtze River is known as the "golden waterway". The Yangtze River Basin is an important economic hinterland of our country. The area along the river basin is economically developed, rich in resources, with a relatively concentrated population and city, with unique development advantages and huge growth potential. In 2014, the State Council issued the guidance on the development of the Yangtze Economic Belt on the basis of the golden waterway. As one of the important industrial corridors in China, the economic belt of the Yangtze River ushered in new development opportunities and challenges. The Party Central Committee advocates the development of high quality, puts forward the requirements of space optimization and structural transformation, and takes the Yangtze River Delta region as an important hand to lead the rapid and high quality development of the Yangtze River economic belt, which is represented by Shanghai. This paper analyzes the development status of the Yangtze River economic belt, points out the development advantages of the Yangtze River Delta region, and points out the shortcomings and shortcomings of the cooperation mechanism in the development process by combining theoretical demonstration and empirical test, quantitative and qualitative analysis and co integration analysis, and puts forward reasonable policy suggestions according to the reality.

First, on the whole, the Yangtze River economic belt has huge economic volume, leading human resources and innovation ability, and its industrial distribution has its own characteristics. However, there are some problems such as unbalanced regional development and inadequate utilization of watercourses. Secondly, from the economic perspective of the upper and middle reaches, it is in the leading position in the Yangtze River Delta region, such as the total economic volume, the degree of economic openness and the scale of financial market. Compared with the middle and upper reaches, the Yangtze River Delta has a more rational industrial structure. Through cointegration analysis, we know that there is no cointegration relationship between the gross domestic product of the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River economic belt, the degree of market opening, and the innovation ability of science and technology, that is, there is no equilibrium relationship. There is a co integration relationship between the industrial structure and the scale of financial markets in the Yangtze River economic belt. The Yangtze River Delta region can transform the industrial structure of the middle reaches through industrial transfer, and promote the development of the upstream financial market through talents and capital drainage policies. Finally, it puts forward policy recommendations from the perspective of government, enterprises and linkage mechanism. It is believed that the integrated layout should be integrated, through the establishment of long-term high-level development forums and meetings, the establishment of a variety of regional alliances, the Yangtze River Delta and the middle and upper reaches of enterprises to dock, enhance the cooperation between the regions and accelerate the linkage and development of the Yangtze Economic Zone.

KEY WORDS: Basin economy, The economic belt of the Yangtze River, Cointegration Analysis,

目录

摘要 I

Abstract II

第一章 绪论 1

1.1 背景 1

1.2 选题意义 1

1.3 研究方法与研究框架 2

1.4 创新与不足之处 2

第二章 文献综述 3

2.1 理论基础 3

2.2 长江经济带研究动态 4

2.3长三角与长江经济带关系研究 6

第三章 长江经济带发展现状分析 7

3.1长江经济带的区位界定 7

3.2 长江经济带发展概况 7

第四章 上中下游区域联动分析 10

4.1 经济总量与产业结构联动 11

4.2 经济开放联动 15

4.3 金融市场联动 18

4.4 交通运输联动 20

4.5 城市创新联动 20

第五章 实证分析 22

5.1 指标选择与数据来源 22

5.2 单位根检验 22

5.3 协整检验 24

5.4 Granger因果关系检验 25

5.5 回归分析 26

第六章 结论与政策建议 29

6.1 结论 29

6.2政策建议 29

致谢 31

参考文献： 32

第一章 绪论

1.1 背景

长江是有着“黄金水道”之称，长江流域则是我国重要的经济腹地。流域沿线地区经济发达、资源丰富、人口和城市相对集中，具有独特的发展优势和巨大的增长潜力。长江经济带在省级层面上覆盖了沪、苏、浙、皖、赣、鄂、湘、渝、川、滇、黔等在内的11省市，其面子占全国约为21%，经济总量庞大、发展潜力巨大。

长江经济带的经济建设稳步推进，并于2014年进入了具有重要历史意义的新阶段。国务院高度重视长江流域的建设发展，提出经济带规划与建设意见， 为首次面向全长江流域，覆盖省市众多，规模庞大。在政府工作报告中，李克强总理认为，要以黄金水道为依托，重新布局长江流域的区域发展，根据长江河流和铁路公路干线分布特征，形成自东往西、由外向里、由沿海向内陆的梯度发展势态，成为国家发展壮大的重要经济新支撑，打造成在全球范围内具有巨大的影响力的全新开放合作平台。

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