江苏省对外贸易与经济增长的协整检验研究

论文总字数：17182字

摘 要

18世纪起，对外贸易与经济增长之间关系的研究至今是经济学家们不断探索和研究的热点。由此引发的争论和分歧也不在少数。对于对外贸易是否确实能够促进经济的发展，有的经济学者支持促进论，有的则支持阻碍论，还有的支持折衷论。这三种论调基本就形成了在对外贸易和经济发展关系这一问题上的三大派别。西方学者在很长一段时间内得出的不同结论很大程度上要归结于他们对所选取数据的处理方法的不同。另一方面的原因，对外贸易和经济增长的关系也会因为不同时间的经济发展程度不同而产生差异。而国内学者对两者关系的研究主要以介绍、评价和借鉴国外已有的理论成果为主。由于我国地区间经济建设和发展的差异很大，因此国内学者大多将研究的重心放在以整个国家为对象的研究上。对一个国家或一个地区的数据运用经济计量学的方法进行实证分析是研究对外贸易与经济增长关系的常用手段。故本文将根据江苏省1985—2014年的数据，使用EVIEWS软件，用协整检验和Granger因果关系检验判断对外贸易与经济增长之间是否存在因果关系。最终从导出的数据中分析得出，对外贸易的确是促进经济增长的原因。出口、进口和国民生产总值互为因果关系，表明对外贸易是促进江苏省经济增长的主要原因。本文最后总结了江苏省对外贸易中存在的问题，从理论和现状两个层面分析并给出了具体的建议。

关键词：对外贸易；经济增长；协整检验；格兰杰因果关系检验

Abstract

Since eighteenth Century, research on the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth is still economists continue to explore and research. The arguments and disagreements are not unusual. For foreign trade is indeed able to promote economic development, some economists support the promotion theory, some support block theory, support theory and compromise. The three argument basically formed three major factions in the problem of the relationship between foreign trade and economic development. Different conclusions of western scholars for a long period of time is largely attributed to them on the selected data treatment method for different reasons. On the other hand, the foreign trade and the The relationship between the economic growth will be because of different time and different economic development differences. And the research on the relationship between the two domestic scholars mainly introduced the main evaluation and reference theories abroad. Because of the difference between our country area economic construction and development, the domestic scholars mostly focused on in the whole country as the object of study. In a country or a region of data by using the method of econometric empirical analysis is a common means of foreign trade and economic growth of Jiangsu province. This paper will according to the data from 1985 to 2014, the use of EVIEWS software, using cointegration Test and Granger causality test to determine whether there is a causal relationship between foreign trade and economic growth. Finally derived from data analysis, foreign trade is indeed the reason for promoting economic growth. Imports and exports, GDP of foreign trade show that the reciprocal causation relationship is the main reason for promoting economic growth in Jiangsu province. This paper summarizes the presence of foreign trade in Jiangsu Province, from the two aspects of the theory and the status quo analysis and specific recommendations were given.

Keywrods:Foreign trade; Economic growth; Cointegration test; Granger causality test

目录

摘 要 I

Abstract II

第一章 绪论 1

1.1选题背景及研究目的与意义 1

1.2论文框架 1

第二章 文献综述 3

第三章 实证分析 5

3.1 样本数据描述性分析 5

3.2 实证分析与结果说明 7

3.2.1 平稳性检验 7

3.2.2 协整检验 8

3.2.3 格兰杰因果关系检验 11

第四章 结论 12

4.1 理论分析 12

4.2 现状分析 12

4.3 提高江苏省外贸发展水平对策 13

致谢 14

参考文献（References） 15

第一章 绪论

1.1选题背景及研究目的与意义

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