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摘 要

中美贸易战是由美国主动挑起的。随着中美来回博弈，中美贸易战逐步升级，对两国的发展甚至世界的稳定造成了一定的影响。本文在宏观的背景下，通过数据、各国媒体的声音与可查到的资料，对中美贸易战背后的成因进行全面综述。本文从美国的角度进行分析，从政治因素、经济因素与历史因素三个层面进行研究。通过数据对比与论证后最终得出结论：作为奉行单边主义的美国，当中国的发展威胁到它的超然的大国地位时，出于霸权主义与贸易保护主义的传统，美国对华发起贸易战。基于对中美贸易战成因的正确理解，能找到解决贸易争端的方法，避免中美误解越来越深，也避免对各国经济带来负面影响。

关键词：贸易争端；霸权主义；贸易保护主义；单边主义

Contents

1. Introduction 1

2. Literature Review 1

3. The Process of Sino-US Trade War 2

4. Reasons for the Sino-US Trade War 4

4.1 Political Factors 4

4.1.1 The aim to curb China"s renaissance 4

4.1.2 Preparations for the midterm elections 5

4.1.3 The impact of interest groups 6

4.2 Economic Factors 7

4.2.1 Serious trade imbalance between China and the United States 7

4.2.2 The needs to developing its national economy 7

4.2.3 The threat that China brought to its leadership in research and technology 8

4.3 Historical Factors 9

4.3.1 The tradition of trade protectionism and economic nationalism 9

4.3.2 The tradition of applying trade war 10

5. Conclusion 11

Works Cited 12

1. Introduction

Under the pretext of huge trade deficit in goods, the United States initiated bilateral trade frictions between China and itself. A series of measures have been taken to suppress China in the fields of trade and investment on this account and China then countered, so trade frictions between the two countries escalated into trade wars. We need to realize that the Sino-US trade war not only affects the development of China and the United States, but also affects the world pattern. If all countries adopt trade protectionism, the world will experience economic recession. The purpose of this paper is to find a solution to Sino-US trade disputes by studying the causes of Sino-US trade war so as to avoid further deepening of the contradictions of two countries. So why did the Sino-US trade war arise? Wolface proposed that China’s inadequate protection of intellectual property rights was the cause (Wolface 19), and some media studied that the unilateralism of the United States was the cause, while most domestic scholars proposed that the trade deficit between the two countries was the main reason. To our knowledge, no study has yielded in the political factors and the unique characteristics of Trump government. A whole range of different approaches to the problem are available. This paper will first study the bilateral game in Sino-US trade war from the perspective of the history of Sino-US trade war, and then study the causes of Sino-US trade war from three aspects through the perspective of America: political, economic and historical factors.

2. Literature Review

There are many achievements in this field at home and abroad. The Sunday Telegraph’s article “Trade War Reveals Three Conflicts of Views” revealed that the Sino-US trade war was caused by the United States’ pursuit of unilateralism and hegemonism that does not conform to the trend of world development (Liu 5). The article of Wolface “In a China-US Trade War, Who Has More to Lose” studied that the Sino-US trade war was caused by China’s lack of protection of intellectual property rights (Wolface 19). The South German Newspaper studied that Sino-US trade war was caused by US political suppression towards China and Sino-US trade deficit. Many domestic scholars, such as Chen Jiyong and Zheng Yongnian, concluded their studies that the essence of the Sino-US trade war was the fear of China’s rise (Chen 7, Yu 4, Zheng 11). Ren Ping also demonstrated this in People’s Daily. Existing research results show that the Sino-US trade war is an economic strategy implemented by America to stifle China’s development. But these studies only analyzed from the perspective of Chinese and American governments and enterprises and didn’t take the particularity of Trump Government into account. So, this paper studied this field from the perspective of the populist sentiment of American people, the tradition of American trade protectionism and economic nationalism, etc. The purpose of this study is to explore the causes of Sino-US trade war and find out effective solutions to solve the problem.

3. The Process of Sino-US Trade War

Trump signed a presidential memorandum at the White House on 22 March 2018, announcing that America would impose tariffs on some imports valued at about $60 billion from China based on a Special 301 Trade Survey launched to China.

The Office of American Trade Representatives released a list of Chinese products that proposed to levy tariffs on April 4. On the same day, the Tariff Commission of the State Council decided to impose a 25% tariff on 106 items of 14 categories.

Trump stated that he would impose tariffs on an additional $100 billion of goods imported from China on April 6. On the same day, the Ministry of Commerce of China said that if America announces a list of 100 billion new tariff-added products, China is fully prepared and will launch a vigorous counterattack with no hesitation.

The U.S. Department of Commerce issued a statement on April 16, saying that ZTE would be executed an export ban because of its violation of the settlements reached with the U.S. government last year.

The Ministry of Commerce issued a preliminary ruling on the investigation of imported sorghum originating in America and decided to implement temporary anti-dumping measures on April 17.

Liu He held discussions on issues of common interest in China-U.S. economy and trade with the U.S. delegation headed by Mnuchin on May 3 .

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Liu He would visit America from May 15 to 19 at the invitation of America Government on May 14. The economic teams of the two countries continued to hold consultations on economic and trade issues between the two countries after the arrival of Liu He.

The White House announced that it would impose a 25% tariff on China’s $50 billion high-tech products on May 29, and that the list would be released by June 15.

At the press conference that held on June 11, the Ministry of Commerce said that during the last weekend’s consultations, China and America conducted in-depth and concrete discussions on specific areas of trade cooperation, especially in the areas of agricultural products and energy.

The White House imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese imports on June 15.Z

The Tariff Commission of the State Council decided to impose tariffs on soybeans, automobile and other imports originating in America on June 16.

Trump said in a statement from the White House on June 18 that he had instructed the Office of America Trade Representative to issue a list to consider imposing a 10% tariff on an additional $200 billion of Chinese goods.

Xinhua News Agency announced on June 20 that in the face of challenges, China would make a strong counteraction, and would firmly take the road of reform and opening up.

America imposed tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports on July 6. On the same day, China began to impose tariffs on some imported goods from America. Later then, America threatened to impose tariffs on all $500 billion of Chinese products sold to America if the two countries could not reach a trade agreement soon.

The Trump Administration issued a plan on July 10 to impose tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods.

China forwarded “Opinions on Expanding Imports to Promote Balanced Development of Foreign Trade” on July 11.

The White House issued a statement on August 2 to raise the tariff rate on $200 billion of Chinese goods sold to America from 10% to 25%.

China decided to separately impose tariffs of 25%, 20%, 10% and 5% on 5207 items of goods originating in America on August 3.

The U.S. Office of Trade Representatives released a list of the second batch of tariffs imposed on Chinese imports on August 8, involving goods valued at $16 billion, which came into effect on August 23. On the same day, after making appropriate adjustments to the goods in List II of Tariff Commodities imposed to America, China began to impose an additional 25% tariff on August 23, 2018.

Trump announced on September 9 that after $200 billion, tariffs would be imposed on an additional $267 billion of goods.

Kudrow, director of the White House National Economic Commission, said on September 12 that the Trump Administration had invited Chinese officials to resume trade negotiations.

The White House issued a statement on September 17, announcing that it would impose a 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese imports from September 24, and that the tariff rate would be adjusted to 25% on January 1, 2019.

The State Council Tariff Commission imposed tariffs on imports originating in America of about $60 billion on September 18.

Wang Yi stated at the meeting on the evening of December 1 that the heads of state of China and America reached a consensus to stop imposing new tariffs on each other(Wang 1).

4. Reasons for the Sino-US Trade War

With the rise of China, America thinks that China threatens its hegemony in the world. Under the tradition of trade protectionism, the United States, which pursues unilateralism, launched a trade war( a trade dispute) with China.

4.1 Political Factors

4.1.1 The aim to curb China’s renaissance

After China’s accession to the WTO, America holds the belief that the rapid economic development of China threats the hegemonic status of it. In 2017, China’s GDP reached $1.2 trillion, equivalent to 63% of that of the United States, and China’s economic growth rate was 6.9%, much higher than that of America’s 2.3%. If the GDP growth rate is about 6% for another 10 years, China is expected to become the world’s largest economy instead of America around 2027. So the United States has been trying to curb China’s renaissance. In 2000, George W. Bush made it clear during his election campaign that “China is not a strategic partner of the United States, but a competitor of us.” Then in 2009, Barack Obama announced the “return to Asia” and the implementation of the “Asian rebalancing” plan, which targeted at rapidly growing China. What’s worse, from the list of tariffs levied on Sino-US trade, previous period mainly covers the products in these ten areas of “Made-in-China 2025”, in order to curb the export of China’s related products, and further curb the development of related industries. The White House trade consultant Navarro has also made it clear that “301 tariffs” will be directly targeted at Chinese plan “Made-in-China 2025”. Trump even more bluntly announced that “Made-in-China 2025” damaged the interests of America.

4.1.2 Preparations for the midterm elections

Trump chose to launch a trade war in the first half of 2018 because of the mid-term elections to the U.S. Congress in November 2018. The essence of the mid-term elections is that Democrats and Republicans (Trump’s party) compete for control of Congress. Republicans must ensure their control in the House of Representatives or the Senate so that Trump can enact new laws. However, after being a president, the frequent replacement of high-level personnel and the continuous scandal of the Tong’oumen disturbance affect Trump’s support rate. Trump has been in the White House for one year on January 20, 2018. The latest polls conducted on that day show him to be the worst president in the first year of office in modern American history. Trump’s approval rating was only 39% in a joint poll released by NBC and Wall Street Journal on Friday, making him the most unpopular president in office for a year since the poll was launched. So Trump urgently needs a topic that can divert domestic attention - the implementation of trade war against China. Some forces in American manufacturing, such as trade unions and some Democrats, are very dissatisfied with the dilemma of American manufacturing caused by international trade, and think that they will change even if there is a trade war. So Trump’s tax increase can be supported by these people, including some Democrats.

Despite of the support of manufacturing forces, Trump also wants the support of common people. Trump promised American citizens in his campaign to solve the trade deficit. At this time, launching a trade war with China is conducive to his mid-term elections. Before Trump came to power in 2016, there were two typical slogans in his campaign. One was the so-called American Priority Principle. Trump promised to develop the domestic industrial system through trade wars, and to revive the old American industrial system. During the campaign period, he also proposed stricter trade protection policies for China, declared that China should be listed as a currency manipulator, and he adopted more anti-dumping and anti-subsidy trade protection measures against China. He even imposed 45% tariffs on Chinese products. These policies undoubtedly aggravated Sino-US trade frictions. But since his election campaign, Trump has repeatedly stressed that China and Mexico have stolen American jobs. He has also emphasized that China and other countries have been taking advantages of trade with the United States, so America has lost many benefits. He has underlined that the manufacturing industry of America has flowed overseas and that many workers are unemployed as well. He declared that this situation must be changed. This catered to the populist mood in the United States and won the support of voters, making Trump elected successfully. With the mid-term elections approaching in November 2018, Trump naturally hopes to consolidate his ruling position through the mid-term elections. So he launched the Sino-US trade war.

4.1.3 The impact of interest groups

Interest groups have an important impact on trade policy. In order to achieve common goals and interests, various interest groups actively influence American legislation and other policy decisions, and exert influence on public relations decisions directly or indirectly related to their members. Under the special system of the United States, we often see that American politicians turn a blind eye to what is good for the United States, and there will be immediate objections to what is not good for the United States, even if it only affects the interests of a small number of people. Because in American democracy, parliamentarians and government officials are often the spokespersons for certain interests. Under the electoral system, personal influence and visibility have a vital impact on the candidates’ future. In order to enhance their influence, strong financial assistance is indispensable for candidates to make speeches on television, radio and rallies so that voters can understand and familiarize themselves (when voters vote, they tend to vote for people they know better). That’s why American politicians either own enormous amounts of property or can get funding from others. When officials are elected, the demand for subsidies can be reflected, so it is easy to cause trade frictions because of some officials’ interests. As Trump was a businessman, it was natural for him to consider the development of American trade by using special businessmen’s thinking, which eventually led to the emergence of Sino-US trade war.

4.2 Economic Factors

4.2.1 Serious trade imbalance between China and the United States

The serious trade imbalance between China and the United States is the direct cause of Trump’s provocation of trade war. The United States believes that China has a huge trade surplus towards America, which means that it produces a lot of goods and sells them to the United States, while the United States loses the opportunity to produce these goods and American workers lose their jobs. So, the trade deficit between China and the United States has triggered domestic debt problems and national discontent in America, which prompted the US to launch a trade war against China. The total trade deficit of goods in the United States showed an expanding trend from 2002 to 2008. It contracted sharply in 2009 under the influence of the global financial crisis and began to recover and rise in fluctuation in 2010. Among them, the United States trade deficit of goods in China accounted for 47% of the total trade deficit of goods in the United States, which increased from 22% in 2002 to 47% in 2017. From a numerical point of view, China’s trade surplus in goods with the United States reached 375.2 billion US dollars in 2017, accounting for nearly half of the total trade deficit in goods of the United States. So it is not difficult to understand why the United States attaches great importance to the imbalance of trade balance with China and why President Trump has repeatedly targeted China on economic and trade issues. During the first trade negotiations between China and the United States in May 2018, America demanded China to reduce its trade deficit with the United States by $200 billion and to stop subsidizing “Made in China 2025” and other forms of government support. And on July 20, Trump announced that he would further expand the tax to $500 billion, covering almost all goods exported by China to the United States.

4.2.2 The needs to developing its national economy

The serious social problems in America require the development of the national economy. Since the 1970s, the relaxation of capital control in America and the “de-industrialization” triggered by financial capitalism have led to the bankruptcy of the old industrial zones in the US, doubling the unemployment rate and forming a huge “rust belt”. The proportion of manufacturing jobs in it has been declining for 65 consecutive years, from 32% in 1953 to 8.5% in 2017. At present, the richest 1% of the population in the United States account for 38% of the nation’s wealth, while the poorest 40% of the population only account for 1% of the nation’s wealth. Social problems such as the lower middle class in the whole country continue to remain unsolved. In the view of many Americans, the economic globalization and trade liberalization pushed by the United States have not only improved the economic situation of the US, but also caused a series of problems, such as increasing trade deficit and rising unemployment rate. So, the middle and lower class of Americans (especially the white people) generally resent the process of economic globalization and are eager to relaunch themselves by trade protectionism to realize the “re-industrialization” of the national economy of the United States. In recent years, China has made great efforts to attract foreign investment, and multinational enterprises have set up in China. Trump hopes to attract manufacturing industry back to the United States through trade wars. Therefore, it puts pressure on relevant companies by means of launching trade wars against China. At home, he pursued tax cuts to attract manufacturing industries back to create jobs and economic value.

4.2.3 The threat that China brought to its leadership in research and technology

In the view of America, China has posed a threat to the world’s leading position in research and technology of the United States. America’s concern is not a hollow one, which can be verified by the National Science Foundation’s “Science and Engineering Indicators 2018” (NSF 23) report to Congress and the president in January 2018. From its perspective, China is developing rapidly in the fields of science, technology and engineering and is challenging the leadership of the United States. In terms of Ramp;D(Research and Development) performance, China’s Ramp;D expenditure has surpassed the European Union and become the second largest Ramp;D expenditure country in the world(As shown in Figure 1). At present, China is catching up with the development of high and new technology, and ranks in the forefront of the world in many indicators, challenging the leading position of the United States in technology. According to some American presses (Fawkes 3), China has surpassed the United States in the fields of high-speed rail, nuclear energy, renewable energy, and so on. So the United States imposed an export ban on ZTE in the trade war as an attempt to restrict China’s technological progress by suppressing China’s chip technology development.

Figure 1(Ren 2)

4.3 Historical Factors

4.3.1 The tradition of trade protectionism and economic nationalism

Trade protectionism and economic nationalism are the potential causes of Sino-US trade war. After the founding of the United States, the first bill passed by the United States was the Great Seal of it, and the second bill was the Trade Protection Act, namely, the United States Customs Law that passed in 1789. Americans hold the belief that trade protection can ensure the steady and healthy development of their economy. This is related to the history of the United States as a British colony. Before its independence, the United States had to trade with the United Kingdom. Most of this trade was unfair, so Americans would approve of the protection of their trade through high tariffs on foreign products. It is an absolute act of trade protectionism for the US to impose tariffs on China on the grounds that China’s intellectual property protection is weak. Firstly, the WTO explicitly prohibits members from judging whether another member violates WTO rules on their own. It must go through a series of procedures of dispute settlement mechanism in order to reach the final conclusion and take appropriate retaliatory measures under the authorization of WTO. It is a serious and obvious violation of the WTO dispute settlement procedure for the United States to determine that China is harming the interests of America and then to formulate retaliatory measures only on the basis of an unfair domestic procedure. Secondly, the cornerstone of WTO is the principle of most-favored-nation treatment, which requires members to treat other members equally. The United States imposes tariffs on China alone is a discriminatory act against China and denies China’s legitimate rights and interests as a member of WTO. Thirdly, the WTO requires members to restrict their own tariffs, and they are not allowed to raise tariffs on products of another member at will unless they are subject to investigation procedures permitted by the WTO. The wayward behavior of the United States clearly violates the important principle of WTO.

4.3.2 The tradition of applying trade war

The strategy of launching a trade war between the United States and China is also due to the fact that the US is familiar with the process of launching a trade war for its launch of trade war towards the former Soviet Union and Japan. In modern history, both the former Soviet Union and post-World War II Japan have experienced trade wars with the United States, and the two trade wars all started at the time that the two countries’ economic volume reached about two-thirds of that of the United States. The trade war against the former Soviet Union was a blow to the resource-dependent Soviet Union by suppressing international oil prices, which led to a fall of $9 a barrel at that time. To Japan, it was through the 301 investigation, that is, the protection of the so-called intellectual property investigation, forcing Japan to sign the Plaza Accord, which eventually led to the rapid appreciation of Japan’s currency and the increase of domestic bubbles, which eventually led to the collapse of housing prices in Japan. The Japanese economy was bogged down for more than 20 years, and the long-term development stagnated. During the trade war against China, the United States tried to win the Sino-US trade war again by means of a special “301 investigation”. This round of 301 survey mainly includes: whether the Chinese government forces American enterprises to transfer technology; whether it weakens the ability of American enterprises to negotiate technology in China; whether it directly or unfairly helps Chinese enterprises to acquire American advanced technology and intellectual property rights; whether it illegally invades trade secrets, etc. This is the sixth time that the United States has used 301 clause in China.

1. Conclusion

In this investigation, the aim was to study causes of Sino-US trade war. The aim to curb China’s renaissance, Trump’s preparation for the midterm elections and serious trade imbalance between China and America emerged as reliable predictors of causes of Sino-US trade disputes. Besides, the most obvious finding to emerge from this study is that the tradition of trade protectionism and economic nationalism influence Americans. Furthermore, multiple regression analysis revealed that the interest groups influence government’s decision. What’s more, the relevance of China’s threat to America’s leadership in research and technology, America’s handy use of trade war and the needs to developing its national economy is clearly supported by the current findings. Some theories that economist Zheng Yongnian launched have something in common with the author’s research results. So these findings enhance our understanding of Sino-US trade war, and this research will serve as a base for future studies and a foundation of settlement of Sino-US trade frictions.

Finally, a number of important limitations need to be considered. The most important limitation lies in the fact that there is no analysis from the aspect of China. This research has thrown up many questions in need of further investigation. Further work needs to be done to establish whether there are some inappropriate aspects of China’s decision-making, and whether America will be still resolutely suppress China if China foresees this and takes measures taken in advance.

Works Cited

David Fickling, “Where $17 Billion in Shifted Tariffs Might Land.” Bloomberg Opinion: 16^th April, 2019.

Durkovic Misa, “New American Unilateralism.” Medjunarodni promblemi Volume 60, Issue 2-3(2008): 226-256.

Irene, “A Lose-lose Deal.” The Economist: 12^th April, 2018.

Liu Xiaoming. “Trade War Reveals Three Conflicts of Views.” The Sunday Telegraph: June 2018, No 2977.

Paul Mozur, “Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power.” The New York Times: 22th June, 2018.

Rob Rogers, “Trump and His Trade War with China.” The South German Newspaper: 17^th April, 2018.

Vuletic Vladimir, “ Protectionism and the Free Trade in the Globalization Era.” Sociologija Volume 46, Issue 1(2004): 45-70.

Wolface, “In a U.S.-China Trade War, Who Has More to Lose.” Washington Post: 10 June, 2018.

陈继勇：《中美贸易战的背景、原因、本质及中国对策》. 《武汉大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》， 2018年8月28日.

[Chen Jiyong. “The Background, Causes, Essence and Countermeasures of Sino-US Trade War.” Journal of Wuhan University(Philosophical and Social Sciences Edition), 28^th Aug. , 2018.]

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