基于Bass模型的新能源汽车市场预测研究

论文总字数：27474字

目 录

1.引言........................................................................................................................................5

2.国内外研究现状.............................................................................................................5

2.1 ABM模型.......................................................................................................................5

2.2 消费者选择模型............................................................................................................6

2.3 扩散率和时间序列模型................................................................................................6

2.4文献评述.........................................................................................................................7

3.中国新能源汽车销量预测模型的构建.................................................8

3.1模型构建的基本思路.....................................................................................................8

3.2基本方法.........................................................................................................................8

3.2.1季节指数法............................................................................................................8

3.2.2 Bass模型...............................................................................................................9

3.3 季节指数法和Bass组合模型......................................................................................9

4 基于Bass模型的中国新能源汽车销量预测步骤..............................10

4.1数据预处理.....................................................................................................................10

4.2季节指数法.....................................................................................................................11

4.2.1 季节指数的确定...................................................................................................11

4.2.2 剔除季节性...........................................................................................................11

4.3参数估计.........................................................................................................................11

4.3.1 m值的估计..............................................................................................................11

4.3.2 p和q 的估计…......................................................................................................11

4.4 检验................................................................................................................................12

4.4.1 拟合优度................................................................................................................12

4.4.2 配对样本t检验.....................................................................................................12

5.基于季节指数和Bass组合模型的中国新能源汽车销量预测...13

5.1 预测结果..........................................................................................................................13

5.2 预测结果分析..................................................................................................................13

5.2.1未来保有量，销售量分析...................................................................................13

5.2.2 新能源汽车发展的三个阶段.................................................................................14

5.3 建议..................................................................................................................................15

5.3.1 对政府的建议.........................................................................................................15

5.3.2 对企业的建议.........................................................................................................15

6. 结论及展望 ....................................................................................................................16

参考文献....................................................................................................................................17

致谢........................................................................................................................................19

附录........................................................................................................................................20

基于Bass模型的新能源汽车市场预测研究

曹玉珊

，China

Abstract: The development of new energy vehicles is of strategic significance to China's energy security, urban air quality improvement and transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry. Scientific and reasonable prediction of the sales of new energy vehicles for the coordination of the relevant government departments, corporate behavior, together to deploy resources with reference value. This paper through the season index method and Bass model combination method, the Bass model parameter estimation to build the model, and then through the test of China's new energy vehicle sales forecast, come to China's new energy The long-term development trend of the automobile market and the special time point, and finally put forward the corresponding suggestions to the enterprises and the government according to the forecast result analysis. With a view to the future of new energy vehicles can provide analytical data and useful policy recommendations.

Key words: new energy vehicles; Bass model ;prediction

1. 引言

新能源汽车不但对能源安全和节能减排问题有重要意义，也能促进技术革新和产业升级。发展新能源汽车是实现国民经济持续快速发展的需求，可以减小和世界先进水平的差距，也是我国智能电网建设的重要一环。同时新能源汽车的发展离不开政府的政策和资金支持。对新能源汽车进行科学预测，可以让政府合理配置资源，避免资源浪费或不足；而且可以让企业有效安排生产，协调产业发展；也可根据预测结果制定合理价格，从而增加销售量。

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