南京地区雾霾污染的统计预报分析-毕业论文网

论文总字数：14937字

目录

１绪论····································································1

1.1 研究的目的以及意义··················································1

1.2 南京市雾霾状况························································2

1.3 国内外预报方法的现状与发展·········································3

２雾霾预报模式的选择··············································4

３气象资料和污染资料的收集·········································5

3.1　雾霾与气象因子的关系·················································5

3.1.１　风速·······················································5

3.1.２　风向························································6

3.1.３　湿度························································6

3.1.４　降水························································6

3.1.５　大气稳定度和逆温············································6

3.1.６　温度···················································7

3.1.７　能见度····················································7

４多元线性回归的方法以及应用·····································7

4.1　线性回归的方法·····················································7

4.2 预报因子的选取······················································8

4.3　预报方程的建立······················································8

５预报方程的预报以及误差分析·····································8

5.1 雾霾指数概念························································8

5.2　雾霾预报预测结果····················································9

5.3　误差分析························································9

６结论和讨论···························································10

参考文献··································································12

致谢·······································································12

南京地区雾霾污染的统计预报分析

胡志云

，China

Abstract：China has been suffering severe haze air pollution due to significant increase of fossil fuel combustion associated with the rapid economy development, industrialization, vehicle increase. Nanjing is among the most polluted cities in China with high PM₁₀ concentrations. Based on a large number of meteorological data and PM₁₀ concentration data of Nanjing, this thesis adopted a linear regression statistical method to investigate the quantitative relationship between the PM₁₀ concentrations and the meteorological parameters, so that PM₁₀ forecast can be obtained based on meteorology forecasting data. Bias exists for the current method and this thesis also analyzed the reasons of the bias for reference of air quality forecast studies in future.

Key words：haze pollution; statistical forecast; Nanjing

1 绪论

1.1 研究目的以及意义

随着我国经济的快速发展，城市化程度的提高，工业化进程的加速，人类的各类生产生活活动对周围环境的影响越来越大，尤其是在城市中拥有大量的人口、车辆以及工厂。空气质量随着上述的发展，逐渐开始恶化，各种环境污染事件逐渐出现。

近年来，雾霾污染也是受到重视的重要环境问题之一。雾霾污染能够危害人类的身体健康，尤其是呼吸道疾病，科学家指出，在发生严重雾霾污染的城市，七年后会出现肺癌的高发期。不仅如此，雾霾天气还会让人感到压抑等一系列不良感觉，长久下去会造成人类的心理健康问题。并且雾霾污染还会引发农业减产、交通事故的发生。

南京市近年来的雾霾污染，基本上是人为原因造成。产生PM₁₀的人为源有很多，主要原因有如南京是一个重工业城市，有极长的重工业历史，这些重工业工厂每天排放的大气污染物量巨大。另外，自从改革开放以来，经济飞速发展，工厂数量增加，私人汽车等交通工具数量也大幅增加，其燃烧化石能源排放的废气也是造成PM₁₀上升的主要原因。但是现在南京出租车和公交车都改为天然气驱动，加以提倡人们绿色出行，相信会缓解能见度恶化趋势。最后，冬天的采暖也会造成PM₁₀浓度上升，同时冬天大气污染物不易扩散。

本文主要研究分析南京市的雾霾预报。南京（中心：北纬32°02'38"、东经118°46'43"）是江苏省会，地处中国东部长江下游地区，总面积6597平方公里，常住人口818.78万。1981年南京被国家列为全国15个经济中心城市之而且2015年实现区域生产总值9720.77亿元，列全国第11位。在工业方面，南京是国家重要综合性工业生产基地和先进制造业基地，其电子化工生产能力居全国第二位，车辆制造规模居第三位，在制造业强市排名中居中国第一。南京在近三十年的经济飞速发展过程中，空气污染越来越严重，当然雾霾污染也是其中之一。南京地区快速的经济发展由于缺少科学的指导，导致了雾霾污染。城市建设发展过程中不注重环境问题导致了雾霾污染的频频发生。雾霾污染事件的发生导致了大量悲剧的产生，这是环境对人类的惩罚，因此如何准确的预报雾霾污染也就成为一个影响人们的生活生产的重要问题。这有利于减少雾霾污染所带来的各种问题，同时也能够警醒人们环境问题不容忽视。

因此对于南京市的广大的人民群众来说，雾霾污染的预报是和他们的生活息息相关的。同时进行雾霾预报也是南京市政府负责任的表现。雾霾污染的预报影响着南京市人民的出行、生活以及健康。可以让普通市民了解空气质量的重要性，提高人们对于空气质量的关心，指导人们日常的生活出行。同时雾霾预报还可以使得南京市政府部门对于污染物排放的审查，减少污染物的排放以及雾霾污染的发生。督促工厂增强处理污染物的能力，实现清洁生产，带动污染物处理产业的发展，从而带动经济效益的增长。

1.2 南京市雾霾污染状况

在改革开放以来，南京地区的经济得飞速发展，但由于在发展的前期没有注意到环境问题的重要性，城市建设发展过程中不注重环境问题，导致了如今的一系列问题，雾霾也是其中之一。由于环境问题影响到了人们的出行、生活以及生产，政府对于环境问题也关注并处理起来。空气质量的的预报，有利于减少雾霾污染所带来的各种问题，同时也能够警醒人们雾霾问题不容忽视。图1和图2可以明显看出PM₁₀浓度呈下降趋势，虽然仍呈现轻度污染状态。南京市的经济在转型中，大量工厂的转移对PM₁₀浓度起到了关键作用，但是逐年增加的各类交通工具，尤其是使用化石燃料的个给车辆，也使得浓度出现反复增加的现象。因此如何准确的预报雾霾污染也就成为一个影响人们的生活生产的重要问题。

图3是南京市PM₁₀季节平均浓度，从中可以看出南京市雾霾在冬春季比较严重，这与南京市的气候，工业布局有着密切的关系。而夏季最低，是因为南京地区的夏天多雨且盛行偏南风，而南京市工厂多位于北郊地区。