论文总字数：14196字

目 录

1引言 1

2 资料与方法 1

3 结果与分析 2

3.1气温变化特征 2

3.2降水变化特征 5

3.3气温与降水的突变分析 7

3.4 年平均降水、气温与海温的相关分析 13

4 结论与讨论 14

参考文献 14

致谢 16

拉萨市气温和降水近60a变化特征

洛桑加措

, China

Abstract: In this paper, analyzing Lhasa 1955--2014 average annual temperature and precipitation data, by using trend analysis, Mann-Kendall non parametric tests correlation analysis, analysis of the variation of temperature in the past 60 years in Lhasa, precipitation. The results shows that:(1) In 1955-2014,the annual average temperature in Lhasa shows upward trend, with rising 0.42℃per an average every 10 years, and the time which suddenly change is in 1984-2014;the average annual rainfall in Lhasa reduced again after the first increase small band change process, the average annual precipitation has increased over the last decal scale climate trend which the rate is 0.7mm/10a,and the point mutation is in 1997. (2)The average temperature in spring was significantly upward trend, average temperature of 10 years per season rose 0.33℃,mutations occur in 2001;the average spring precipitation has an obviously increasing trend, with climate trend rate of 1.24mm/10a,which in 1962,1976 and 1989 mutated.(3)average summer temperatures showed a clear upward trend, average temperature of 10 per season rose 0.38℃,and the time mutation region was in 1986-2014 ;the average annual precipitation in summer tends gentle in 1956 and the annual precipitation is constant, which climate trend rate is 0.82mm/10a,with mutations occurring in 2007.(4)Average temperature in autumn upward trend was significant, average temperature of 10 per season rose 0.41℃,with time mutation region in 1991-2014;the average annual precipitation in autumn was slightly increasing trend, with climate trend rate of 0.56mm/10a.Respectively,mutations occurred in 1962,1970,2011.(5)The average temperature in winter was a clear upward trend, average temperature of 10 per season rose 0.56℃,with mutant time zone in 1973--1981 and 1984--2014;average winter precipitation increased evidently, with climate trend rate 0.22mm/10a.The time for the mutation was in 1957 and 1960.(6)the degree of correlation SST in tropical regions with annual average precipitation was low. Middle and high latitude sea surface temperature in the Midwest sub-tropical waters of the Pacific range 20N~40N and Pacific Northwest waters, the average annual rainfall showed irrelevant- he average annual precipitation and sea surface temperature in these areas showed significant positive correlation. The positively correlated in the annual average temperature with tropical sea surface temperature was strong, and the majority of the area south of 30N correlation coefficient greater than 0.4, and through the significance tests. In the waters near the equator between 80E~160E, the correlation coefficient greater than 0.6, and in the eastern Pacific waters, the low correlation between sea surface temperature with annual mean temperature in Lhasa.

Key words: Lhasa；Air temperature；Precipitation；Variation

1引言

近年来，全球气候变暖已成为当今社会普遍关注的焦点，在全球变暖的大背景下^[1]，气温和降水量的变化已引起了各国科学家们的高度重视，全球气温和降水的变化，不仅对人类赖以生存的生态环境系统，而且人类社会经济发展产生极大的影响^[2]。有许多学者对我国及全球的气温、降水量的变化进行了大量的研究与探讨，如林学椿^[3]等用中国160站40年来的降水量资料分析出中国年降水量以每10年减小-12.66mm。丁一汇^[4]等通过青藏高原气候突变时间与中国其他地区气候突变时间的比较。韦志刚^[5]等利用青藏高原37年的46个地面气象站的资料，对降水变化的分析，得出西藏南北部降水呈增加趋势，1980年后，雅鲁藏布江流域降水增加趋势显著。张磊^[6]等利用青藏高原40年56个站逐月降水资料分析得出青藏高原降水量呈增加趋势。周顺武^[7]等利用30年来沿雅鲁藏布江一线4个测站的降水资料，认为该区域平均夏季降水量以9.4mm/10a的速度呈减小趋势。杜军^[8]等分析西藏30年降水量的变化趋势，得出除了西部地区呈较为明显的减小趋势外大部分地区的年降水量1.4mm/10a到1.66mm/10a的速度呈增加趋势。吴绍洪^[9]等分析了30年来西藏高原地区的降水资料，得出年降水量有所增加。Webster^[10]等分析印度季风和海温相互关系，得出印度季风与夏季阿拉伯海域海温呈正相关，与夏季索马里海域海温呈负相关。西藏地区不仅对我国气温、降水量、水资源的分布有很大影响，而且对整个亚洲乃至全世界的气候都有着深远的影响。拉萨作为青藏高原西部最大的城市，其气象设备相比其它站更完备，本文利用观测资料分析拉萨市平均气温、降水变化特征，进一步分析西藏地区的变化无常的气候规律及旱涝气候规律，期望通过相应研究提高西藏地区的气象灾害预报能力，为防灾减灾、水利工程的设计、农业产业的结构调整、水资源的开发利用以及环境保护等各方面提供参考帮助^[11]。高原气候对我国及整个亚洲的影响是无可忽视的，分析拉萨的气候变化趋势，既能为高原旱涝预测方面提供依据，又能更好地理解全球变暖背景下区域气候变化的空间差异特征。

2 资料与方法

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