论文总字数：23571字
目 录
0 引言 1
1 资料与方法 2
1.1 数据来源及预处理 2
1.2 研究方法 9
1.2.1气候突变分析 9
1.2.2气候生产潜力模型 10
2 结果与分析 10
2.1 研究区域气候年变化特征 10
2.1.1 呼和浩特市气候变化态势分析 11
2.1.2包头市气候变化态势分析 11
2.1.3 鄂尔多斯市气候变化态势分析 12
2.1.4 巴彦淖尔市气候变化态势分析 13
2.1.5 阿拉善盟气候变化态势分析 13
2.2 研究区域气候季节变化特征 14
2.3 年平均温度突变分析 15
2.4 气候生产潜力变化特征 16
2.4.1气候生产潜力空间分布差异 16
2.4.2气候生产潜力相关性分析 19
3 结论与讨论 19
3.1 结论 19
3.2 讨论 20
参考文献 21
致谢 23
内蒙古西部地区近58年气候变化及气候生产潜力时空演变
潘耀婷，俞文政，罗悦
，China
Abstract：Based on the data of monthly temperature and precipitation in 1958 - 2013, the Mann-Kendall mutation analysis, the Thornthwaite Memorial model, and the monthly regression analysis were used to analyze the temperature and precipitation data of Hohhot, Baotou, Ordos, Bayannaoer, Alashan. And to analyze the climate change and its influencing factors in the study area in the past 58 years, and to estimate the climatic production potential of the region.The results show that the air temperature in the western part of Inner Mongolia has increased significantly in the past 58 years, and the average climate temperature is 0.44 ℃·10a-1 (P lt;0.01). The trend of winter temperature is the biggest in the four seasons. Bayannaoer City has the largest upward trend，Erdos City has the smallest upward trend.The precipitation trend is generally fluctuating, but the trend is not significant. 1986-1987 is the mutation point of the western part of Inner Mongolia from cold to warm. after 1988 showed a significant warming trend.The climate change potential is consistent with the trend of precipitation, and the temperature and precipitation have a significant effect on the agricultural climate production potential. However, the precipitation is the main influencing factor. The "cold-wet" climate is favorable to crop growth, and the "Warm-dry" climate is detrimental to crop growth.
Key words：west of Inner Mongolia; climate change; climate production potential; Thornthwaite Memorial Model
0 引言
1881—2013年以来，全球平均气温已升高0.85℃[1]，现阶段全球正在经历以转暖为主要特点的气候变化，如此显著的气候变化对地球上的各类生态系统及人类的农业生产、工业建设、健康安全等方面都产生了不容忽视的影响。众所周知，农业生产是对气候变化反应最为显著敏感的成产活动，由于全球平均气温上升而导致的一系列气象灾害比如全球降水不均、飓风增加、冰川融化、海平面上升等，都会对农业生产产生破坏性的不利影响。
气候生产潜力是指在一定时间段内的一定土地面积上，假设作物品种、土壤性质、耕种技术都适宜的情况下，在当地自然环境条件下作物可能获得的单位面积最高产量[2]。德国化学家Liebig最早开始从事气候生产潜力的研究[3、4、5]， 任美锷率先在国内开展了气候生产潜力的相关研究[6]。竺可桢[7]、黄秉维[8]等继续完善了作物生产潜力的研究体系。目前国内外较为成熟的气候生产潜力研究模型主要有Thornthwaite Memorial 模型、Miami模型[9、10、11]、AEZ模型[12]、Wagenigen模型等。Miami 模型根据植物生产量与气温、降水相关而建立[13、14、15]，Thornthwaite Memorial 模型则是通过蒸散量模拟植物生产量。由于Thornthwaite Memorial 模型数据获取途径较为简便、参数简单、准确率高、实用性强等优点[16、17、18]，本文采用该模型作为估算研究区气候生产潜力的模型。
内蒙古自治区占地面积广大，东西跨度长，处于高纬度地区，边缘有高大山脉隔绝，离海洋距离远，属于典型温带大陆性气候[19]。内蒙古西部地区气候总特点为春季多大风天气，常伴有沙尘暴等灾害性天气，增温幅度大，夏季短促炎热，降水集中，秋季气温骤降，霜冻经常提前，冬季则多发寒潮天气，气温低，降水少。全年太阳辐射量呈由东向西递增趋势，降水量则呈由东向西递减趋势。日平均气温差为12—16℃，年平均气温为0—8℃，年平均气温差为34—36℃。年总降水量50—450mm，较内蒙古东部地区偏少。其中以阿拉善高原年降水量最少，为50mm以下，额济纳旗仅为37mm。而大部分地区的蒸发量都达到1200mm以上，巴彦淖尔高原则达到了3200mm。光能资源在内蒙古西部地区储存十分丰富，绝大部分区域的年日照总时数均可达到2700小时以上，内蒙古最西端的阿拉善高原可达3400小时。由于地处高原，紧邻黄土高原，故西部地区春季频发大风沙尘天气，全年70%的大风天气都发生在春季，平均为7—30天，其中沙尘天气占到5—20天，额济纳旗大风日数可达到全年的1/3。内蒙古西部地区主要以农业及畜牧业为主，受气候变化影响较为明显，对该地区的气候变化规律及其影响因素进行研究，并估算气候生产潜力及变化特征，旨在提高该地区的气候资源利用率，为提高作物产量、适应气候变化、合理布局农业生产等提供准确的科学决策依据。
1 资料与方法
1.1 数据来源及预处理
本研究资料源自内蒙古西部五盟市呼和浩特市、包头市、巴彦淖尔市、鄂尔多斯市、阿拉善盟的五个气象站（呼和浩特站、包头站、临河站、鄂托克旗站、阿拉善左旗站）1958—2013年的年平均气温和降水量数据。所有数据获取于中国气象数据网。原始数据和处理后的数据如表1
表 1 1958—2013代表台站气候数据表
区站号 | 年 | 极端最低温 | 极端最高温 | 平均气温 | 降水量 |
53446 | 1958 | -28.7 | 37.2 | 6.6 | 678.2 |
53446 | 1959 | -26.3 | 33.2 | 6.3 | 333.9 |
53446 | 1960 | -28.7 | 34.8 | 6.7 | 223.2 |
53446 | 1961 | -25.1 | 37.5 | 7.1 | 541.5 |
53446 | 1962 | -22.3 | 33.3 | 6.6 | 233.1 |
53446 | 1963 | -26.5 | 36.0 | 6.7 | 239.8 |
53446 | 1964 | -28.2 | 34.9 | 6.4 | 428.8 |
53446 | 1965 | -23.7 | 37.8 | 7.2 | 124.9 |
53446 | 1966 | -26.8 | 37.7 | 6.9 | 236.7 |
53446 | 1967 | -28.9 | 36.2 | 5.4 | 381.8 |
53446 | 1968 | -27 | 34.7 | 5.7 | 291.4 |
53446 | 1969 | -30.4 | 35.6 | 6.1 | 258.2 |
53446 | 1970 | -26.3 | 35.2 | 6.1 | 380.6 |
53446 | 1971 | -31.4 | 38.4 | 6.2 | 173.3 |
53446 | 1972 | -27.8 | 37.6 | 6.8 | 210.4 |
53446 | 1973 | -24.9 | 36.4 | 7 | 357.3 |
53446 | 1974 | -25.3 | 35.4 | 6.3 | 148.3 |
53446 | 1975 | -23 | 38.1 | 7.5 | 261.8 |
53446 | 1976 | -24.3 | 34.8 | 6.1 | 390.9 |
53446 | 1977 | -26.1 | 33.9 | 6.5 | 386.9 |
53446 | 1978 | -22.8 | 36.2 | 7 | 348.7 |
53446 | 1979 | -23.5 | 34.1 | 6.5 | 343.6 |
53446 | 1980 | -27.8 | 37.3 | 6.6 | 195.5 |
53446 | 1981 | -24.6 | 34.7 | 6.5 | 326.4 |
53446 | 1982 | -23.3 | 35.9 | 7.4 | 197.3 |
53446 | 1983 | -22.8 | 35 | 7.1 | 303.1 |
53446 | 1984 | -25.6 | 33.2 | 5.9 | 307.2 |
53446 | 1985 | -24.5 | 35.5 | 6.5 | 355.2 |
53446 | 1986 | -22.4 | 34.4 | 6.8 | 211.6 |
53446 | 1987 | -22.3 | 37.5 | 8 | 192.6 |
53446 | 1988 | -24.9 | 33.2 | 6.8 | 380.5 |
53446 | 1989 | -20 | 34.5 | 7.8 | 275.7 |
53446 | 1990 | -22.8 | 35.6 | 7.7 | 385.8 |
53446 | 1991 | -23.1 | 36 | 7.6 | 233.8 |
53446 | 1992 | -21.5 | 37 | 7.3 | 410.4 |
53446 | 1993 | -25.4 | 34.7 | 7 | 235.3 |
53446 | 1994 | -21.7 | 34.4 | 8.1 | 353.7 |
53446 | 1995 | -21.3 | 36.2 | 7.5 | 325.8 |
53446 | 1996 | -25.6 | 34.6 | 7 | 453.1 |
53446 | 1997 | -22.9 | 36.3 | 8.2 | 411.8 |
53446 | 1998 | -27.9 | 36.7 | 9.1 | 313.5 |
53446 | 1999 | -22.1 | 39.2 | 9 | 276.8 |
53446 | 2000 | -26.3 | 36.8 | 8 | 161.2 |
53446 | 2001 | -21.6 | 36.5 | 8.7 | 283.8 |
53446 | 2002 | -27.6 | 35.5 | 8.5 | 262.9 |
53446 | 2003 | -25 | 33.3 | 7.6 | 465.2 |
53446 | 2004 | -23 | 33.4 | 8.3 | 356.8 |
53446 | 2005 | -26.9 | 40.4 | 8.2 | 175.9 |
53446 | 2006 | -23.4 | 35.8 | 8.8 | 347.2 |
53446 | 2007 | -19.2 | 34.5 | 8.8 | 238.1 |
53446 | 2008 | -25.5 | 35.8 | 7.6 | 321.2 |
53446 | 2009 | -21.9 | 36.5 | 8.2 | 276 |
53446 | 2010 | -26 | 40.1 | 8.1 | 303.4 |
53446 | 2011 | -22.9 | 35.9 | 8.1 | 224.4 |
53446 | 2012 | -26.4 | 34.7 | 7.2 | 421.8 |
53446 | 2013 | -26.6 | 35.5 | 8.2 | 238.2 |
53463 | 1958 | -28.4 | 34.4 | 6.1 | 606.6 |
53463 | 1959 | -26.7 | 31.8 | 5.7 | 929.2 |
53463 | 1960 | -26.8 | 34 | 6.1 | 322.5 |
53463 | 1961 | -25.5 | 36.9 | 6.5 | 685.9 |
53463 | 1962 | -23.1 | 33.1 | 5.7 | 234.7 |
53463 | 1963 | -25.2 | 34.1 | 6 | 321.5 |
53463 | 1964 | -28.7 | 32.9 | 5.7 | 544.5 |
53463 | 1965 | -24.1 | 34.7 | 6.4 | 155.1 |
53463 | 1966 | -28.2 | 34.3 | 6.1 | 324 |
53463 | 1967 | -28.9 | 35.2 | 4.9 | 614 |
53463 | 1968 | -27 | 32.8 | 5.2 | 405.7 |
53463 | 1969 | -31.2 | 33.8 | 5.2 | 433 |
53463 | 1970 | -27.2 | 33.8 | 5.3 | 428.1 |
53463 | 1971 | -30.5 | 35.3 | 5.4 | 311.8 |
53463 | 1972 | -27 | 35.6 | 6.1 | 370.1 |
53463 | 1973 | -25.5 | 35 | 6.4 | 418.7 |
53463 | 1974 | -25.4 | 32.9 | 5.6 | 226.9 |
53463 | 1975 | -23.5 | 36.1 | 7.1 | 455.6 |
53463 | 1976 | -25 | 31.5 | 5.6 | 590.1 |
53463 | 1977 | -25.8 | 32.1 | 6.3 | 387.1 |
53463 | 1978 | -25.2 | 35.4 | 6.6 | 468.1 |
53463 | 1979 | -21.9 | 31.7 | 6.2 | 467.5 |
53463 | 1980 | -27.6 | 35.2 | 6.2 | 303.2 |
53463 | 1981 | -24.3 | 32.4 | 6 | 455.1 |
53463 | 1982 | -24.7 | 35 | 6.9 | 335.3 |
53463 | 1983 | -23.3 | 35.1 | 6.8 | 425.6 |
53463 | 1984 | -25.5 | 32.2 | 5.6 | 485.2 |
53463 | 1985 | -24 | 32.8 | 6.1 | 433.2 |
53463 | 1986 | -22.2 | 32.8 | 6.3 | 262.3 |
53463 | 1987 | -22.1 | 35.1 | 7.4 | 245.9 |
53463 | 1988 | -24 | 33.2 | 6.4 | 425.3 |
53463 | 1989 | -19.6 | 33.3 | 7.5 | 361.1 |
53463 | 1990 | -21.3 | 33.4 | 7.4 | 474 |
53463 | 1991 | -21.5 | 36.8 | 7.2 | 367.5 |
53463 | 1992 | -20.3 | 35.7 | 6.9 | 529.7 |
53463 | 1993 | -24 | 33.2 | 6.5 | 295.3 |
53463 | 1994 | -21.9 | 33.6 | 7.7 | 503.6 |
53463 | 1995 | -20.3 | 33.9 | 6.8 | 463.5 |
53463 | 1996 | -21.8 | 32.9 | 6.5 | 353.7 |
53463 | 1997 | -21.2 | 35.2 | 7.8 | 386.7 |
53463 | 1998 | -25.7 | 35.7 | 8.3 | 562.2 |
53463 | 1999 | -20.4 | 38.5 | 8.5 | 256.3 |
53463 | 2000 | -24.1 | 35.3 | 7.5 | 316.8 |
53463 | 2001 | -21 | 36.1 | 8.2 | 296.1 |
53463 | 2002 | -26.6 | 34.1 | 8.1 | 483.1 |
53463 | 2003 | -25.3 | 33.7 | 7.2 | 654.1 |
53463 | 2004 | -22.4 | 33.9 | 8 | 415.8 |
53463 | 2005 | -22.5 | 36.7 | 7.7 | 248.3 |
53463 | 2006 | -21.2 | 34.1 | 8.6 | 290.8 |
53463 | 2007 | -17.6 | 35.6 | 9 | 261.2 |
53463 | 2008 | -25.1 | 33.9 | 7.4 | 571 |
53463 | 2009 | -23.6 | 35.1 | 8 | 265 |
53463 | 2010 | -24 | 38.9 | 7.6 | 469.5 |
53463 | 2011 | -20.7 | 34.4 | 7.9 | 177.1 |
53463 | 2012 | -23.9 | 34.7 | 7.2 | 551.4 |
53463 | 2013 | -27.2 | 33.7 | 7.3 | 564.6 |
53513 | 1958 | -27.7 | 36 | 6.5 | 256.5 |
53513 | 1959 | -26.6 | 33.8 | 6.3 | 173.6 |
53513 | 1960 | -28 | 36.1 | 6.9 | 144.6 |
53513 | 1961 | -23.3 | 35.7 | 7.3 | 196.2 |
53513 | 1962 | -22.5 | 33.8 | 6.4 | 103.9 |
53513 | 1963 | -22.7 | 33.8 | 7.1 | 94.5 |
53513 | 1964 | -27.9 | 33.4 | 6.6 | 170.3 |
53513 | 1965 | -24.6 | 36.5 | 7 | 53.7 |
53513 | 1966 | -26.8 | 34.1 | 7 | 170.5 |
53513 | 1967 | -30.1 | 34.7 | 5.4 | 220.8 |
53513 | 1968 | -29.3 | 34.5 | 5.7 | 110.1 |
53513 | 1969 | -25.7 | 34.7 | 6.4 | 128.5 |
53513 | 1970 | -27.7 | 35.1 | 6.3 | 132.2 |
53513 | 1971 | -35.3 | 37.2 | 6.4 | 93.2 |
53513 | 1972 | -24.1 | 37.7 | 7.5 | 74.2 |
53513 | 1973 | -25.6 | 36.4 | 7.6 | 183.7 |
53513 | 1974 | -23.3 | 35.7 | 7 | 62.7 |
53513 | 1975 | -21.2 | 38 | 7.8 | 153.2 |
53513 | 1976 | -23 | 34.7 | 6.8 | 133.7 |
53513 | 1977 | -25.3 | 35.7 | 7.5 | 256 |
53513 | 1978 | -23.3 | 36.7 | 7.8 | 124.6 |
53513 | 1979 | -19 | 35.1 | 7.3 | 179.8 |
53513 | 1980 | -27 | 37.7 | 7.6 | 92.8 |
53513 | 1981 | -25.5 | 36.3 | 7.7 | 140.6 |
53513 | 1982 | -22.6 | 36.5 | 8.4 | 98.5 |
53513 | 1983 | -22.4 | 37.9 | 8 | 130.7 |
53513 | 1984 | -23.6 | 35 | 7 | 207.9 |
53513 | 1985 | -22.4 | 35.7 | 7.5 | 121.1 |
53513 | 1986 | -21.8 | 37.2 | 7.6 | 55.9 |
53513 | 1987 | -18.4 | 37.9 | 8.8 | 139.7 |
53513 | 1988 | -23.4 | 36.1 | 7.8 | 267.9 |
53513 | 1989 | -18.3 | 36.6 | 8.6 | 126.8 |
53513 | 1990 | -20.7 | 37.5 | 8.7 | 157.6 |
53513 | 1991 | -22.2 | 38 | 8.7 | 117.8 |
53513 | 1992 | -18.2 | 36.2 | 8.5 | 190.1 |
53513 | 1993 | -24.4 | 36 | 7.9 | 89.7 |
53513 | 1994 | -19.3 | 35.7 | 9.1 | 176.4 |
53513 | 1995 | -18.9 | 35.6 | 8.5 | 243.1 |
53513 | 1996 | -19.5 | 35.6 | 8.2 | 146.5 |
53513 | 1997 | -19 | 38.3 | 9.3 | 213.5 |
53513 | 1998 | -24.6 | 36.4 | 10.3 | 180.4 |
53513 | 1999 | -18.4 | 39.4 | 10.1 | 114.4 |
53513 | 2000 | -24.9 | 38.7 | 8.8 | 96 |
53513 | 2001 | -20 | 37.2 | 9.4 | 159 |
53513 | 2002 | -26.5 | 36.3 | 9.5 | 148.4 |
53513 | 2003 | -24.2 | 34.4 | 8.8 | 140.3 |
53513 | 2004 | -22.5 | 34.7 | 9.3 | 160.6 |
53513 | 2005 | -22.8 | 39.1 | 8.8 | 77 |
53513 | 2006 | -20.6 | 37.5 | 9.7 | 175.4 |
53513 | 2007 | -16.9 | 35.4 | 9.8 | 165.8 |
53513 | 2008 | -27.2 | 37 | 9 | 200.9 |
53513 | 2009 | -21.5 | 38.3 | 9.4 | 87.9 |
53513 | 2010 | -23.4 | 38.3 | 8.2 | 136.2 |
53513 | 2011 | -25 | 36.4 | 7.9 | 46.8 |
53513 | 2012 | -24.4 | 34.9 | 7.5 | 208.3 |
53513 | 2013 | -24.6 | 36.6 | 9 | 104.3 |
53529 | 1958 | -27.8 | 35.2 | 6.5 | 206 |
53529 | 1959 | -28.7 | 34.8 | 6.4 | 293.8 |
53529 | 1960 | -29.1 | 36.2 | 6.7 | 342.2 |
53529 | 1961 | -23 | 35.8 | 7 | 440.1 |
53529 | 1962 | -23.6 | 33 | 6.2 | 139.3 |
53529 | 1963 | -27.1 | 33.1 | 6.5 | 195.7 |
53529 | 1964 | -26.7 | 32.6 | 6.4 | 407.6 |
53529 | 1965 | -26 | 34.6 | 7 | 125.2 |
53529 | 1966 | -29.7 | 36.5 | 6.8 | 237.6 |
53529 | 1967 | -31.4 | 33.8 | 5.3 | 314.4 |
53529 | 1968 | -27.9 | 35.3 | 5.7 | 393.5 |
53529 | 1969 | -27.5 | 34.2 | 5.9 | 208.1 |
53529 | 1970 | -28.1 | 34.3 | 5.8 | 294.3 |
53529 | 1971 | -31.5 | 36.7 | 6.2 | 201.8 |
53529 | 1972 | -23.8 | 35.8 | 6.8 | 132.2 |
53529 | 1973 | -23 | 34.6 | 7 | 388.6 |
53529 | 1974 | -26.9 | 35 | 6.2 | 227.2 |
53529 | 1975 | -24.5 | 36.5 | 7 | 172.5 |
53529 | 1976 | -27.1 | 34.5 | 5.9 | 611.6 |
53529 | 1977 | -28.7 | 33.3 | 6.6 | 314.4 |
53529 | 1978 | -24.2 | 36 | 7.1 | 323.2 |
53529 | 1979 | -23.2 | 32.7 | 6.8 | 216.7 |
53529 | 1980 | -30.3 | 35.2 | 6.7 | 213.6 |
53529 | 1981 | -28.5 | 34.1 | 6.8 | 191.3 |
53529 | 1982 | -24.5 | 33.5 | 7.5 | 163 |
53529 | 1983 | -24.7 | 35.9 | 6.9 | 257.4 |
53529 | 1984 | -30.7 | 33.3 | 5.8 | 398.5 |
53529 | 1985 | -26.2 | 35.4 | 6.4 | 324.4 |
53529 | 1986 | -23.8 | 34.3 | 6.4 | 175.9 |
53529 | 1987 | -22.6 | 35.7 | 8.1 | 204 |
53529 | 1988 | -26.6 | 33.3 | 6.6 | 295.6 |
53529 | 1989 | -25.5 | 32.2 | 7.2 | 444.9 |
53529 | 1990 | -24.1 | 34.5 | 7.7 | 304.4 |
53529 | 1991 | -26.5 | 35.8 | 7.6 | 243.5 |
53529 | 1992 | -21.1 | 34 | 7.1 | 356.5 |
53529 | 1993 | -25.3 | 32.9 | 6.8 | 200.4 |
53529 | 1994 | -21.8 | 34 | 7.9 | 224.3 |
53529 | 1995 | -22.2 | 34.4 | 7.1 | 360.2 |
53529 | 1996 | -21.9 | 33.9 | 6.9 | 259.8 |
53529 | 1997 | -21.7 | 36.8 | 8.1 | 144.7 |
53529 | 1998 | -26.4 | 35 | 8.9 | 272.3 |
53529 | 1999 | -22.4 | 36.7 | 8.7 | 153.3 |
53529 | 2000 | -28.8 | 37.3 | 7.7 | 166.1 |
53529 | 2001 | -22.8 | 36.8 | 8.3 | 269.4 |
53529 | 2002 | -27.4 | 34.7 | 8.3 | 355.5 |
53529 | 2003 | -25.8 | 33.2 | 7.7 | 352.6 |
53529 | 2004 | -26.8 | 33.8 | 7.9 | 290.8 |
53529 | 2005 | -24.3 | 36.6 | 7.6 | 135.9 |
53529 | 2006 | -23.6 | 35.4 | 8.5 | 256.7 |
53529 | 2007 | -20.1 | 33.1 | 8.2 | 316.5 |
53529 | 2008 | -27.7 | 34.1 | 7.4 | 297.9 |
53529 | 2009 | -25 | 34.2 | 8.1 | 207.2 |
53529 | 2010 | -25.4 | 36.6 | 7.8 | 311.1 |
53529 | 2011 | -25.9 | 36.1 | 7.5 | 191.4 |
53529 | 2012 | -29.9 | 33.2 | 6.5 | 318.5 |
53529 | 2013 | -29.8 | 34.7 | 7.8 | 207 |
53602 | 1958 | -27.2 | 33.9 | 7.6 | 217.3 |
53602 | 1959 | -25.2 | 32.9 | 7.6 | 237.8 |
53602 | 1960 | -23 | 35 | 7.9 | 271.3 |
53602 | 1961 | -26.2 | 34.3 | 7.9 | 272.6 |
53602 | 1962 | -23.4 | 33 | 7.5 | 138.7 |
53602 | 1963 | -23.9 | 33.6 | 7.8 | 146.1 |
53602 | 1964 | -23.7 | 34.2 | 7.5 | 281.6 |
53602 | 1965 | -24.3 | 33.3 | 8.1 | 112.2 |
53602 | 1966 | -25.1 | 33.4 | 7.9 | 138 |
53602 | 1967 | -28.5 | 33.9 | 6.2 | 254.9 |
53602 | 1968 | -24.7 | 33 | 6.8 | 217.5 |
53602 | 1969 | -23 | 32.5 | 7.1 | 189.3 |
53602 | 1970 | -24.7 | 33.4 | 7 | 294.6 |
53602 | 1971 | -25.2 | 35.6 | 7.6 | 156 |
53602 | 1972 | -22 | 36.6 | 7.8 | 149.7 |
53602 | 1973 | -24.9 | 34.3 | 8.1 | 231.6 |
53602 | 1974 | -20.7 | 33.7 | 7.3 | 175.7 |
53602 | 1975 | -26.1 | 34.4 | 7.7 | 171 |
53602 | 1976 | -25.5 | 34.2 | 6.9 | 162.4 |
53602 | 1977 | -25.1 | 33.3 | 7.4 | 348.4 |
53602 | 1978 | -21.6 | 35.6 | 8.1 | 275.4 |
53602 | 1979 | -21.5 | 31.6 | 7.7 | 281.1 |
53602 | 1980 | -24.5 | 34.2 | 7.9 | 148.4 |
53602 | 1981 | -23 | 35.5 | 7.7 | 171.3 |
53602 | 1982 | -18.3 | 33.1 | 8.4 | 122.3 |
53602 | 1983 | -24.7 | 34.7 | 7.7 | 211.4 |
53602 | 1984 | -24.2 | 32.7 | 7.1 | 244.3 |
53602 | 1985 | -22.6 | 35 | 7.8 | 195.5 |
53602 | 1986 | -17.5 | 33.4 | 7.9 | 195.2 |
53602 | 1987 | -16.9 | 34 | 9.2 | 190.7 |
53602 | 1988 | -23.5 | 34.3 | 8.1 | 236.2 |
53602 | 1989 | -19.8 | 35.1 | 8.5 | 144.3 |
53602 | 1990 | -18.6 | 34.6 | 9.1 | 215.7 |
53602 | 1991 | -25.2 | 35.7 | 8.9 | 183.3 |
53602 | 1992 | -18.2 | 33 | 8.2 | 261.9 |
53602 | 1993 | -20.7 | 32.3 | 8 | 171.7 |
53602 | 1994 | -18.1 | 33.6 | 9.1 | 234.4 |
53602 | 1995 | -18.1 | 33.2 | 8 | 241.2 |
53602 | 1996 | -19 | 33.1 | 8.1 | 275.1 |
53602 | 1997 | -17.1 | 36.3 | 9.2 | 202.8 |
53602 | 1998 | -21.4 | 35.2 | 10 | 279.3 |
53602 | 1999 | -19.8 | 37 | 9.7 | 149.2 |
53602 | 2000 | -19.1 | 37.2 | 9 | 187.4 |
53602 | 2001 | -19.1 | 36.1 | 9.2 | 225.3 |
53602 | 2002 | -21.7 | 36.4 | 9.5 | 257.1 |
53602 | 2003 | -19.2 | 33 | 8.9 | 330.1 |
53602 | 2004 | -22.2 | 33.4 | 9.1 | 208.4 |
53602 | 2005 | -18.9 | 35.3 | 8.9 | 126.2 |
53602 | 2006 | -20.7 | 35.1 | 9.7 | 144.5 |
53602 | 2007 | -17.1 | 32.3 | 9.2 | 246 |
53602 | 2008 | -22.4 | 34.8 | 8.4 | 291.2 |
53602 | 2009 | -21.7 | 34.1 | 9.6 | 134.8 |
53602 | 2010 | -19.6 | 38.4 | 9 | 159.4 |
53602 | 2011 | -20.7 | 34.2 | 8.6 | 171 |
53602 | 2012 | -20.3 | 33.8 | 8.5 | 233.9 |
53602 | 2013 | -20.1 | 34.9 | 9.9 | 269.1 |
1.2 研究方法
论文采用线性回归分析、Mann-Kendall突变分析、Thornthwaite Memorial模型等方法，分析研究区域近58年气候变化及影响因素、并对该地区的气候生产潜力进行估算。
1.2.1气候突变分析
本文利用Mann-Kandall非参数检验进行研究区气候突变分析，对研究区域近58年的年均气温在置信区间为95%的水平上进行突变检验。
Mann-Kandall非参数检验法主要用于研究样本的时间序列趋势变化，不易受个别异常值干扰且计算方便[20、21、22]。
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