不同外部强迫对百年际全球降水变化的影响

论文总字数：22839字

目 录

摘要 ……………………………………………………………………1

Abstract…………………………………………………………………2

1 引言…………………………………………………………………3

1.1 研究意义………………………………………………………………………………3

1.2 研究进展………………………………………………………………………………3

1.2.1 不同外部强迫对降水与温度的关系的影响 …………………………………3

1.2.2 不同外部强迫对降水与能量收支平衡中各通量的关系的影响 ……………4

1.2.3 不同外部强迫对气候变化的相关研究 ………………………………………4

2 模式介绍及资料方法………………………………………………5

2.1 模式介绍………………………………………………………………………………5

2.2 资料和方法……………………………………………………………………………5

2.2.1 试验设计 ………………………………………………………………………5

2.2.2 试验方法 ………………………………………………………………………5

3 结果与讨论…………………………………………………………6

3.1 不同外部强迫的强度变化……………………………………………………………6

3.2 不同外部强迫对降水与温度的关系的影响…………………………………………7

3.3 不同外部强迫对能量收支平衡中各通量与降水率关系的影响……………………9

3.3.1 通量差值的全球区域变化 ……………………………………………………9

3.3.1.1 温室气体强迫下通量差值的全球区域变化……………………………9

3.3.1.2 太阳辐射强迫下通量差值的全球区域变化 …………………………10

3.3.1.3 火山气溶胶强迫下通量差值的全球区域变化 ………………………11

3.3.2 通量差值的纬向变化…………………………………………………………12

3.3.3 通量差值的全球平均…………………………………………………………14

3.3.4 三种强迫下各通量的对比及其对降水率的影响……………………………16

4 结论 ………………………………………………………………17

参考文献………………………………………………………………17

致谢……………………………………………………………………20

不同外部强迫对百年际全球降水变化的影响

蔡沈林

,China

Abstract：Under the background of global warming, different external factors have different responses to the climate change. The correlation between temperature changes and precipitation rate changes was verified in this paper, based on the climatic simulation results under greenhouse gas forcing(GHG), solar forcing(TSI) and volcanic forcing(VOL) over the past 450 years using the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). Moreover, the spatial patterns of different fluxes and precipitation rate and their corresponding relationships were discussed from the perspective of energy budget under different forcing during the Little Ice Age [A.D. 1551–1850] and the modern heating period [A.D. 1851–2000]. The results indicated that surface temperature and precipitation rate was significantly correlated under three kinds of forcing, and the increase of precipitation rate with temperature was most significant under the volcanic forcing. Comparing the modern heating period with the Little Ice Age, the increase of the precipitation rate induced by the greenhouse gas forcing was mainly affected by the weakening of net surface longwave radiation flux, and the increase of the precipitation rate induced by the solar radiation forcing and volcanic aerosol forcing was mainly affected by the increase of net shortwave radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere. Moreover, the increase of latent heat flux of condensation for a given temperature increase under natural forcing (solar forcing and volcanic forcing) was stronger than that of anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gas forcing), which in turn were 1.79, 1.82 and 1.24 W·m^-2·℃^-1, and the increase of latent heat flux under the volcanic forcing was largest, that is the increase of the precipitation rate was largest.

Key words：Greenhouse gas forcing；Solar radiation forcing；Volcanic aerosol forcing；Precipitation；Energy budget

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