未来气候变化情景下黄淮海地区冬小麦干旱灾害风险评估——以江苏省为例

论文总字数：20597字

目 录

摘要 1

Abstract. 2

引言 3

1.资料来源与方法 5

1.1 研究区域背景 5

1.2 资料来源及处理 5

1.3 研究方法 5

1.3.1 干旱指标及其计算方法 6

1.3.2 农业干旱等级划分及干旱频率 7

1.3.3 WOFOST作物模型 7

1.3.4 减产率——相对气象产量 7

1.3.5 数据分析和制图 8

2. 结果与分析 8

2.1 未来气候情景下冬小麦全生育期间降水量、作物需水量和CWDI的时间变化 8

2.1.1 2019-2050年的年际变化——以江苏省为例 8

2.2 未来气候情景下冬小麦全生育期干旱频率的时空分布 11

2.2.1 不同情景下各等级干旱频率对比 11

2.2.2 不同等级干旱频率空间分布 13

2.2.3 不同年代际干旱频率空间分布 14

2.3 基于作物生长模型WOFOST的未来气候情景下冬小麦产量 17

2.3.1 不同气候情景下江苏省冬小麦相对气象产量模拟值的时间变化 17

2.3.2 不同气候情景下江苏省冬小麦产量模拟值及典型干旱年灾损率 19

2.4 未来气候情景下冬小麦干旱灾害风险评估与区划.......................................................20

3. 结论与讨论 22

3.1 未来气候情景下冬小麦全生育期干旱频率时空变化特征...........................................22

3.2 未来气候情景下冬小麦的模拟量...................................................................................23

3.3 未来气候情景下冬小麦干旱灾害风险评估与区划.......................................................23

参考文献 25

致谢 27

未来气候变化情景下黄淮海地区冬小麦干旱风险评估——以江苏省为例

王蕾

，China

Abstract：

Based on the global climate model BCC_CSM1.1(Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1, coupled with the RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) outputted by the regional climate model Reg CM4(Regional Climate Model version 4), the climate simulation data for 2019 to 2050 (in the future) was used to study winter wheat. Based on crop water deficit index (CWDI) and crop growth model WOFOST, the drought risk assessment and regionalization of winter wheat in Huang-Huai-Hai region (taking Jiangsu Province as an example) under future climatic conditions were carried out. The results showed that: (1) Under the future scenario, the drought frequency distribution of winter wheat in Jiangsu Province showed a high trend in the northern part and a low trend in the southern part during the whole growth period. The severe drought occurred in the northern part of Jiangsu Province, and the light drought occurred in the southern region.Typical drought years under the RCP4.5 scenario occurred from 2027 to 2028, 2030 to 2031 and 2045 to 2046.Typical drought years under the RCP8.5 scenario occurred from 2024 to 2025, 2036 to 2037 and 2047 to 2048. (2) Based on WOFOST crop model simulation, the average annual yield of winter wheat under the RCP4.5 scenario was 7016 kg/ha, and that under RCP8.5 scenario was 7429 kg/ha . The overall climate yield of the whole province showed a decreasing trend. (3) The drought disaster risk of winter wheat was concentrated in the central and northern part of Jiangsu Province under two scenarios, and the drought disaster risk of winter wheat was decreasing from the north to the south.The drought disaster risk of winter wheat was higher under the RCP8.5 scenario.The vulnerability of drought disasters of winter wheat was mainly concentrated in the central and surrounding areas of the whole province, and the vulnerability of drought disasters of winter wheat was more obvious under the RCP8.5 scenario. This study can provide scientific basis for winter wheat production drought resistance and disaster reduction in Huang-Huai-Hai region and lay a foundation for risk assessment research.

Key words：winter wheat; RCPs scenario; crop water deficit index; drought;WOFOST crop model

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