昆山市暴雨时空特征及暴雨强度公式推求

论文总字数：38142字

目 录

1.引言 1

2.材料与方法 2

2.1研究区概况 2

2.2数据来源 2

2.3研究方法 3

2.3.1暴雨时空特征分析 3

2.3.2暴雨强度公式推求 3

2.4技术路线图 6

3.结果与分析 7

3.1昆山市暴雨时空分布特征 7

3.1.1日变化 7

3.1.2月变化 7

3.1.3季节变化 10

3.1.4年际变化 11

3.1.5暴雨日数的空间变异特征 12

3.2暴雨强度公式 12

3.2.1暴雨选样 12

3.2.2频率分析 18

3.2.3公式推求 22

4.结论 23

5.讨论 24

参考文献: 24

致谢 26

昆山市暴雨时空特征及暴雨强度公式推求

陈璐

, China

Abstract：In this paper, the temporal and spatial characteristics of rainstorm in Kunshan were analyzed by using the precipitation data per minute from the Kunshan Weather Station in 2008-2015. The rainstorm sampling method, frequency analysis method, and parameter estimation method were used to calculate the formula of rainstorm intensity for different types of ecosystems in Kunshan. The results were showed that: (1) In terms of interannual changes, the number of rainstorm days varies greatly from year to year, and the number of heavy rainstorms days generally increased from 2014 to 2015. In terms of seasonal changes, the most number of rainstorm days was in summer, in each site accounting for 67.5% in a year, and the least number in spring, accounting for 4.1% in a year. In one year, heavy rain was mainly concentrated from June to August. The daily changing in rainstorms showed a “unimodal” distribution. From 01:00 to 04:00 a. m., it had the low peak period of precipitation. At 19:00 p. m., it had the high peak period of precipitation. There were few rainstorms at night and more rainstorms during the day. (2)In terms of spatial distribution, the cumulative number of rainstorm days in each ecosystem representative station showed that the days of rainstorms of city (Zhangpu Station) is the most, the days of rainstorms of forest (Forest Park Station) is the second, and finally is the days of rainstorms of wetland (Zhouzhuang Station). The closer to the urban area, the greater the number of rainstorm days; the coefficient of spatial variation for the number of rainy days in the urban area was greater than the suburbs, and decreases from the downtown area to the periphery. (3) The rainstorm process was sampled though multiple sampling methods. The frequency of rainstorm was analyzed by using P-III distribution and Gumbel distribution, then the rainstorm intensity formula was deduced by using the Gauss-Newton method. It was found that when the P-III distribution was selected at the urban stations, its error of the calculated rainstorm intensity formula was the smallest. At the lake stations, the fitting error of the rainstorm intensity formula based on the Gumbel distribution was the least, and the other type of station was suitable for both of the two frequency distribution model.

Key words: Rainstorm; Temporal and spatial pattern; Frequency analysis of rainstorm; Rainstorm intensity formula; Ecosystem

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