环境因素对风机关键部件失效率的影响

论文总字数：29883字

摘 要

关键词：环境因素；失效率；风机；Cox模型；聚类分析

Impact of environmental factors on the failure rate of key components of wind turbine

02012304 Wu Hao

Supervised by Zhou Yifan

Abstract：Environmental factors are very important in wind turbine failure, it is significant to research relationship between environmental factors and failure rate. There are currently very few people taking advantage of environmental data to analyses the wind turbine reliability model. The article will use the past five years failure data and environmental data under different wind fields which the company offers to do a reliability analysis with MATLAB, assuming failure times have a Weibull distribution, using Kaplan-Meier estimate and Cox proportional hazards model to deal with the data, to estimate parameters with maximum likelihood method, to remov no significant environmental factors such as terrain, and finally we get the failure rate expression. The results shows that the greater the humidity and high altitude increases the risk of failure of the wind turbine, and technological innovation factors can significantly reduce the probability of failure of the wind turbine. Then when added in time-dependant covariates temperature and wind speed, since the new covariates were added, Cox model does not satisfy the PH assumption, we need to use extended Cox regression model to estimate covariate coefficients, regression result shows that the failure rate with temperature and wind speed increasing becomes large. It also analyses the impact of various environmental factors on the wind turbine failure mechanism, the wind turbine rectification program is proposed for environmental adaptability, as well as siting wind fields as reference. Finally, according to trends of the annual risk under different wind fields, the 24 groups of wind fields contains valid data hava a cluster analysis using K-means algorithm, according to wind fields failure risk score we have three class fields, and this is a reference to provide reasonable guidance program for siting wind fields.

Key words: environmental factors；failure rate；wind turbine；cluster analysis

目录

摘 要I

AbstractII

目 录III

第一章 绪论1

1.1 研究背景1

1.2 国内外研究现状2

1.3 论文研究内容及方法3

1.3.1 论文研究内容3

1.3.2 研究方法与技术路线3

1.4 论文组织结构4

第二章 可靠性理论5

2.1 可靠性基础5

2.1.1 可靠度和失效率5

2.1.2 威布尔分布模型6

2.2 可靠性方法6

2.2.1 Kaplan-Meier估计7

2.2.2 Cox比例风险模型7

2.2.3 含时依协变量的Cox模型8

2.3 本章小结9

第三章 环境因素Cox模型分析10

3.1 风机环境数据初步分析10

3.1.1 研究数据10

3.1.2 生存时间描述性分析11

3.2 Cox比例风险模型分析11

3.2.1 环境因子风险的回归分析12

3.2.2 基准风险率的回归分析14

3.3 环境因素影响风机失效的分析17

3.4 本章小结18

第四章 时依环境因素的分析19

4.1 时依环境变量的扩展Cox模型回归19

4.2 风场聚类分析21

4.3 时依环境因素影响风机失效的分析25

4.4 本章小结25

第五章 总结与展望26

5.1 优化结论26

5.2 工作总结26

5.3 关键创新点26

5.4 展望27

致 谢28

参考文献29

第一章 绪论

剩余内容已隐藏，请支付后下载全文，论文总字数：29883字