论文总字数：27375字

摘 要

当今世界，传统金融行业的变化日新月异。我国互联网金融模式众多，P2P网络信贷平台是其中数量最多的，也是增长最快的，同时也是风险暴露最多的。2007年6月，拍拍贷的横空出世，表明我国的小额网络贷款市场由此展开序幕。随后，经过九年的飞速发展，网贷市场在我国已经具有了一定的规模。但是学术界对其的研究大多都是针对借款利率和成功率的影响因素的探讨，缺乏对平台坏账和用户违约情况的实证分析。

本文主要探讨了影响平台用户违约情况的因素。在对人人贷的数据进行统计分析，观察其特征之后，提出了本文的研究假设。并通过建立计量分析模型，对本文提出的5条假设进行实证检验。结果显示贷款人的信用等级显著影响贷款违约概率。信用等级较高的贷款人，更加倾向于按时归还贷款。同时，借款人的文化程度也与违约概率明显相关，文化程度高的借款人更倾向于按照协议的约定归还借款。贷款人拥有汽车，说明其财务状况良好，不会轻易违反贷款协议的约定。违约概率还与借款用途显著相关，购车借款对违约概率的边际影响最大。总金额与约定还款期限均与违约概率成正比。贷款人拥有住房情况，以及工作年限与违约概率并不显著相关。结合以上实证结果，本文最后对小额网贷平台的未来发展，以及国家有关部门的进一步监管提出了几点建议。

关键词：网络信贷平台，人人贷，违约概率，监管

Research on Loan Performance of P2P Network Lending

--- Taking the Renren Lending Platform as An Example

ABSTRACT

In today's world, with the rapid development of mobile Internet technology, the traditional financial industry is facing unprecedented challenges. China's Internet financial model is numerous, but the P2P network credit platform is the largest. It is not only the fastest growing one, but also the most exposed to the risk. Then, after nine years of rapid development, P2P network lending market in China has a certain scale. However, most of the studies on the academic research are the factors which influence the interest rate and the success rate of the loan, and lack of empirical analysis of default rate of the platform.

The paper examines the factors that affect default rate in online peer-to-peer(P2P) lending. Data collected from the first P2P lending platform---Renren Lending, have been analyzed, and then we raise the Hypothesis of the paper. After analyzing the statistical features of variables, we propose a econometrics model for the research of default rate. The Results of the paper shows that the borrower’s default rate is significantly influenced by the credit rating. The higher the credit rating is, the lower the probability of default. In addition, the borrower's cultural degree also has significant influence on probability of default. Higher cultural degree of the borrowers tends to have lower probability of default. Borrowers have cars can explain their good financial condition, so the probability of default will be lower. Probability of default also correlated significantly with the purposes of loans. The car loan has the largest marginal impact on the probability of default. The amount of the loan and repayment period is proportional to the probability of default. House and working life is not significantly correlated with the probability of default. Combined with the above empirical results, the paper finally puts forward some suggestions for the future development of P2P network lending platform.

Key words: P2P Network Lending Platform，Renren Lending，Default Rate，Supervision

目 录

摘 要 I

ABSTRACT II

第一章 绪论 1

1.1 选题背景 1

1.2研究的目的和意义 3

1.3研究内容和方法 5

1.4 论文的结构安排 6

1.5 论文的创新点和不足 6

第二章 文献综述 7

2.1 国外的相关研究 7

2.1 国内的相关研究 9

第三章 理论基础与研究假设 12

3.1 P2P网络借贷平台的概念 12

3.2 信贷配给理论 12

3.3 社会网络 13

3.4 信号理论 14

第四章 实证研究 15

4.1 回归模型 15

4.2 研究对象与数据来源 16

4.3 变量说明与统计性分析 16

4.4 实证检验与分析 19

4.1.1 变量相关系数 19

4.1.2 Logit检验 19

第五章 结论 22

致谢 24

参考文献 25

图 1-1 传统模式下小额信贷平台的框架图................................................................................2

图 1-2担保模式下小额信贷的框架图....................................................................................................2

剩余内容已隐藏，请支付后下载全文，论文总字数：27375字