国防开支对收入不平等的溢出效应研究：基于中国跨区域的动态比较分析（1997-2012）

论文总字数：33654字

摘 要

中国国防支出随经济发展大幅增加，收入不平等程度逐渐加剧。国防开支增长是否会影响收入不平等，学术界尚无统一定论。因此，本文采用面板协整分析与脉冲响应函数方法研究国防开支对收入不平等的潜在溢出效应，并重点关注1997-2012年中国31个省、自治区、直辖市（除港、澳、台）与相应军区间地域差异。在中国31个省全样本面板与东南面板中，国防开支对收入不平等存在溢出效应，以上区域经济发展水平与地方政府财政支出较高，国防开支增长并未挤出社会福利项目支出，反而保持同步增长，有利于缓解收入不平等。相反，北部面板省份经济发展不平衡，北京作为首都可能从扩张的国防开支中受益更多，因此国防开支增加恶化收入分配状况。脉冲响应函数结果表明在全样本、东部与西部面板中，国防开支增速会降低收入不平等增速，北部面板结果相反。国防开支增速对于收入不平等增速的影响效应在四个面板中持续时间均较短，且在北部与东南面板中，影响效应要强于全样本与西部面板。坚持军民融合的政策导向，充分利用国防支出对于收入不平等的溢出效应及其区域差异性，促进中国国防建设与经济建设的和谐发展。

关键词：国防开支，收入不平等，溢出效应，面板协整分析，脉冲响应函数

Does Defence Expenditure Have Spillover Effect

on Income Inequality? A Cross-Regional Dynamic Comparative Analysis of China (1997-2012)

Abstract

China’s defence expenditure has been on a rapid rise along with GDP growth during the past two decades. Meanwhile, income gap has been increased persistently. Therefore, this paper investigates if any spillover effect of defence expenditure on income inequality exists, with special focus on the regional differences among 31 provinces and 7 military regions in China. We extend panel cointegration and impulse response function by employing the panels during the period of 1997-2012. The empirical results show that defence expenditure has an impact on income inequality and the effect varies over different regions in China. Defence expenditure has spillover effect on income inequality in the full sample panel and the southeastern panel. The rise in defence expenditure does not crowd out social welfare spending due to the high level of economic development and government expenditure. In the northern panel, the effect is examined to be opposite because of the unbalanced economic development levels within the panel. Beijing as the capital of China, benefits more from the expansion of defence expenditure thus widens the income gap. The impulse response analyses indicate that an increase in defence expenditure diminishes the growth of income inequality in the full sample panel, the southeastern panel and the western panel in a short term, while the result is opposite in the northern panel. Unlike in the full sample panel and the western panel, the growth of defence expenditure has a stronger effect on the growth of income inequality in the northern panel and the southeastern panel. Based on the conclusions, the spillover effect of defence expenditure on income inequality and its regional differences are important factors to consider when the government increases the defence expenditure. China should balance the national defence construction and economical development from the perspective of civil-military integration.

Key Words: Defence expenditure, Income inequality, Spillover effect, Panel cointergration analysis, Impulse response function

目录

摘要 I

Abstract II

第一章 绪论 1

1.1 选题背景与意义 1

1.1.1 中国国防开支增长迅速 1

1.1.2 中国区域间收入不平等状况加剧 2

1.1.3 中国国防建设实践影响收入不平等 2

1.2 研究思路与方法 3

1.2.1 研究思路 3

1.2.2研究方法 3

1.3 论文结构安排 3

第二章 国内外国防开支相关研究文献综述 4

2.1 国防开支对收入不平等溢出效应的理论基础 4

2.2 国防开支对收入不平等溢出效应的实证分析 5

2.2.1 国外国防开支与收入不平等关系的实证研究 5

2.2.2 国内国防开支相关实证研究 6

第三章 国防开支对收入不平等溢出效应研究方法与数据 8

3.1 面板协整分析方法简述 8

3.2 脉冲响应函数方法简述 8

3.3 样本数据介绍 9

第四章 国防开支对收入不平等溢出效应研究实证结果分析 10

4.1面板协整分析方法实证结果分析 10

4.2 脉冲响应函数方法实证结果分析 12

第五章 结论与建议 15

参考文献（References） 17

附录 20

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