核电一回路子系统可靠性评估方法研究与评价系统设计

论文总字数：30384字

摘 要

核电发展至今，已在世界上许多国家得到了应用，并占据了一定的发电份额，然而核电事故屡有发生，严重威胁人民群众的经济与人身安全，因此，为了保证运行安全，核电站设置了专设安全设施，其中包括安全注入系统。其主要功能是当一回路系统发生破裂而引起失水事故时，系统向堆芯内注水，保证堆芯淹没并冷却堆芯，防止堆芯温度过高导致堆芯熔化，从而保证堆芯的完整性。然而，作为核电一回路系统重要的安全保障，安全注入系统的可靠性随运行时间的推移而降低，严重威胁整个系统的安全运行。因此，对安注系统的可靠性进行预测，对于核电站安全运行具有重要意义。

本文通过结合安注系统基本运行原理、可靠性建模理论及多种数据拟合方法对安注系统进行了可靠性研究。

首先，本文使用中位秩公式对设备原始失效数据进行处理，得到设备原始失效数据所对应的可靠度大小，并基于威布尔分布模型理论，分别使用最小二乘法、灰色估计法、极大似然估计法等多种数据拟合方法对原始数据进行处理，求解得到各设备的失效数据服从威布尔分布模型的参数。然后，通过比较计算模型与实际失效数据的相对均方根误差，选出拟合精度高的模型作为各设备的可靠度模型。

同时，本文使用可靠性框图法对安全注入系统进行分析，在已建立起不同阶段各系统的可靠性框图的前提下，写出不同阶段下各系统可靠度的计算公式。

最后，基于各设备的可靠度模型及各系统的可靠性框图，本文利用MATLAB软件编写各数据拟合方法的函数文件，并使用MATLAB软件中的GUI工具进行界面绘制，对各控件分别进行设置，成功设计出安全注入系统可靠性评价软件，最终实现了各系统可靠性框图的显示与可靠度计算，以及各设备原始数据的建模与图像绘制。

关键字： 威布尔分布，安全注入系统，可靠性框图，可靠性评价系统

ABSTRACT

Since the development of nuclear power, it has been applied in many countries in the world and occupied a certain share of power generation. However, nuclear power accidents occured frequently, which seriously threaten people's economic and personal safety. Therefore, in order to ensure the safety of operation, nuclear power plants have set up special safety facilities, including safety injection system. Its main function is that when the primary system breaks and causes water loss accident, the system pours water into the core to ensure that the core will be submerged and cooled, and prevent the core from melting due to high temperature, so as to ensure the integrity of the core. However, as an important safety guarantee of nuclear power primary circuit system, the reliability of safety injection system decreases with the passage of operation time, which seriously threatens the safety operation of the whole system. Therefore, it is of great significance to predict the reliability of safety injection system for the safe operation of nuclear power plants.

This paper studies the reliability of the safety injection system by combining the basic operating principle, reliability modeling theory and various data fitting methods.

First of all, this article uses the median rank formula of original equipment failure data processing, get the equipment failure data corresponding to the original size, reliability theory, and based on Weibull distribution model, respectively, using the least square method, gray estimate method, maximum likelihood estimation method and so on the many kinds of data fitting method to deal with the raw data, solving all the equipment failure data which obey Weibull distribution parameters of the model. Then, by comparing and calculating the relative root-mean-square error between the model and the actual failure data, the model with high fitting accuracy is selected as the reliability model of each equipment.

At the same time, the reliability block diagram method is used to analyze the safety injection system. On the premise of establishing the reliability block diagram of each system at different stages, the calculation formula of the reliability of each system at different stages is written.

Finally, the reliability model based on the equipment and the reliability of the system block diagram, was solving by using MATLAB to write the data fitting method of the function file, and use the GUI tool of MATLAB, the interface was mapping. To set separate controller, a safety injection system reliability assessment software was successfully designed, finally achieved the system reliability block diagram of the display and reliability calculation, and the equipment of raw data modeling and image rendering.

Key words: Weibull distribution, safety injection system, reliability block diagram, reliability evaluation system

目 录

摘要·······································································Ⅰ

ABSTRACT·································································Ⅱ

第一章 绪论································································1

1.1 核电机理及发展历程·················································1

1.2 威布尔分布可靠性评估研究现状·······································2

1.3 选题背景及意义·····················································3

1.4 本文主要内容·······················································3

1.5 本章小结···························································4

第二章 可靠性模型及建模方法················································5

2.1 可靠性基本概念·····················································5

2.2 威布尔分布·························································5

2.3 实验数据处理·······················································6

2.4 威布尔分布参数估计方法·············································6

2.4.1 最小二乘法···················································7

2.4.1.1 双线性回归估计·········································7

2.4.1.2 右逼近法 最小二乘估计··································8

2.4.2 极大似然估计法···············································9

2.4.3 灰色估计法···················································10

2.5 本章小结···························································11

第三章 设备可靠性建模······················································12

3.1 止回阀可靠性建模···················································12

3.2 隔离阀可靠性建模···················································14

3.3 流量控制阀可靠性建模···············································15

3.4 低压安注泵可靠性建模···············································17

3.5 试验管线阀可靠性建模···············································18

3.6 高压安注泵可靠性建模···············································20

3.7 本章小结···························································21

第四章 安注系统可靠性分析及预测界面制作····································23

4.1 安注系统组成·······················································23

4.2 安注系统可靠性分析·················································23

4.2.1 典型的系统可靠性模型·········································23

4.2.2 系统可靠性分析···············································25

4.2.2.1 直接注入阶段···········································25

4.2.2.2 再循环注入阶段·········································27

4.2.2.3 冷热管同时注入阶段·····································28

4.3 系统可靠性预测界面制作·············································28

4.3.1 界面编写思路·················································29

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