论文总字数：33797字

摘 要

房地产行业作为我国国民生产总值的重要组成部分，已蓬勃发展十多年。国内外的一些学者认为中国房地产行业的高增长不可持续，甚至可能是个金融泡沫，而另一些学者认为中国房地产行业的增长是由经济发展本身作支撑的。不论哪种论点，在我国经济转型时刻，房地产行业的悲观预期弥漫。在我国房地产行业短短的历史中，每一次蓬勃发展都离不开政策助推，且往往作为逆周期政策的一部分。然而在中大城市房价已是摇摇欲坠的今日，是否降低首付、放开限购、放开限贷等是个两难困境。

本文试图利用直接影响我国房地产市场的一些变量，来预测未来一年内长江三角洲的房价变化，并假设用限贷政策不变与限贷政策放松两种情境来预测房价的可能走向，我发现：未来一年一线和二线城市实际房价可能略有下降，而三线城市实际房价略有上升。放松限贷政策不仅能够使房价免于下降，而且可能促进一些三线城市房地产行业的增长。本研究还发现，同为限贷政策，市场对最低首付的变化更为敏感，所以政府在考虑逆周期政策时应优先考虑降低最低首付要求。

关键词：房价预测，长三角经济带，楼市政策，自回归模型

Abstract

As an essential component of the gross domestic product, the real estate industry in China has been under fast development for more than a decade. Some scholars think that this fast growth is unsustainable, and may also be a financial bubble, while some others argue that the growth in property industry is supported by the fundamentals. Whichever the story is, the pessimistic emotion permeates the market as the economic growth slows down. During the brief history of the real estate industry in China, almost every period of fast growth was connected with supportive policies, and usually as a part of de-cyclical policies. However, whether loosen up the home-purchasing policies or not has become a dilemma due to the already sky-rocketed housing prices in metropolitan area. 

In this paper, I attempted to exploit the variables closely related to the housing market in China to forecast the housing price changes in Yangtze River Delta region. I also conducted the forecast conditioning on two possible policy directions: one that keeps the same as current period and one that with a lowered minimum down payment requirement. I found that if the policy does not change in the future year, bigger cities in the region will confront a slight decrease in real housing prices, while smaller cities will enjoy a slight increase. If the policy allows lower minimum down payment rates, the decrease in real housing prices can be prevented, and it may also prosper the housing market in some smaller cities. This study also found that the market is more sensitive to the change in minimum down payment required instead of mortgage rates, therefore the government should prioritize the former when designing for de-cyclical policies. 

Key words: Housing prices forecasting, Yangtze Delta River, Housing-related policy, Autoregressive models

目 录

摘 要 I

Abstract II

第一章 绪论 1

1.1选题背景及意义 1

1.1.1研究背景 1

1.1.2选题意义 3

1.2 文献综述 4

1.2.1房价增长的相关研究 4

1.2.2预测理论的相关研究 5

1.2.3中国房价预测的相关研究 7

1.3结构和创新 8

第二章 理论基础 9

2.1理论框架 9

2.2线性预测方法 10

2.2.1数据选取与预处理 10

2.2.2本文中应用的线性预测模型 10

2.2.3模型评估 12

第三章 实证分析 13

3.1数据源与变量选取 13

3.1.1候选变量 13

3.1.2数据处理 18

3.2方法与结果 18

3.2.1具有分布滞后的AR模型 18

3.2.2具有分布滞后的AR模型：不对称政策效应 26

3.2.3两种AR模型的预测结果对比 30

3.2.4含外生变量的VAR模型 31

第四章 结论及建议 35

4.1结论与政策建议 35

4.2局限性与展望 36

参考文献 37

致 谢 40

第一章 绪论

1.1选题背景及意义

1.1.1研究背景

纵观中国房地产市场的历史，房屋购买需求一直受到抑制，而这些限制只有在房地产市场出现经济衰退时才会放松。政府能够通过设定购房所需的最低首付、控制利率（抵押贷款利率通常设定为利率的一定比率）和限制购买来控制住房价格。简单起见，本文省略了税制变化的讨论。根据调控政策的历史变迁，本研究的样本（2006年-2019年）历史，可以分为5个阶段（如图1所示，灰色为房价调控期）：

名义房价（元/平方米）

剩余内容已隐藏，请支付后下载全文，论文总字数：33797字