论文总字数：16083字

目 录

摘要 1

Abstract 2

1. 引言 3

2. 数据资料和方法 3

2.1数据来源 3

2.2天气过程概述 4

3. 结果与分析 4

3.1天气图分析 4

3.1.1水汽条件分析 7

3.1.2高空风场分析 8

3.2天气系统与卫星云图叠加分析 8

3.2.1天气系统与可见光云图叠加分析 9

3.2.2天气系统与红外云图叠加分析 10

3.2.3天气系统与水汽图叠加分析 10

3.3利用卫星云图监测天气系统的变化 11

3.3.1可见光云图上天气系统的变化 11

3.3.2红外云图上天气系统的变化 11

3.3.3水汽图上天气系统的变化 12

4. 结论与展望 13

参考文献 13

致 谢 14

南京地区一次短时强降水过程的云图分析

杨倩

，China

Abstract: The short duration heavy rainfall has the characteristics of short duration, strong rain and strong locality. It is difficult to predict and early-warn, and it often brings a severe test to urban transport, and has a serious impact on social and economic development and people’s lives. Therefore, how to improve the prediction accuracy has become an urgent issue to be solved. The high temporal and spatial resolution of the satellite cloud image can provide more timely and accurate observation. It is very important for forecasting small and medium-scale weather systems with short life spans and rapid changes, such as short duration heavy rainfall. This paper uses the FY-2E satellite cloud image, Micaps format observation data and the automatic observation station precipitation data from June 9-10, 2017 to analyze a short duration heavy rainfall event that occurred in Nanjing. The results show that the upper-air, Yangtze - Huaihe Velleys cyclone, the low vortex shear line and the low-level jet stream are the main influencing systems for the heavy rainfall weather process. The Long Wave Infrared, water vapor and visible light channels are respectively corresponding to the 850hpa, 700hpa and 500hpa contour、high-low pressure and line and ridge line of the weather chart. Through the timing analysis of the Satellite cloud image, the three divisions of mesoscale convective cloud clusters developed in the low vortex sheer are the direct cause of the short duration heavy rainfall. short duration heavy rainfall occurs in the cold cloud region where convective clouds are developing vigorously, and the corresponding TBB value is small. During this heavy rainfall, the 500hpa slot line moved eastwards along the comma cloud system between the south bank of Baikal and the northeast of China during the heavy precipitation process. The speeds were all greater than 30km/h, and the speed was higher is leading to the heavy rain lasted time is short, but the precipitation intensity greatly.

Key words：Nanjing area；short duration heavy rainfall；Satellite cloud Image；Convective cloud

引言

短时强降水通常定义为1 h降水量大于20 mm的降水过程，这种天气过程具有持续时间短，降水强度高，局地特征强的特点。短时强降水往往是中小尺度对流系统造成的，它会在短时间内产生大量的降水，发生发展十分迅速，常常给城市交通带来严峻挑战，对社会经济发展及人民生活造成严重的影响，因此社会各界对城市短时强降水的预报预警服务有迫切的需求^[1]。短期暴雨的分析研究一直是气象部门关注的重点，但强降水出现的时间、落区和强度一直是气象预报中的难点^[2]。南京位于长江流域，是长三角城市群三大中心城市之一，降水主要集中在夏季，近年来强降水事件频繁发生^[3] 。因此分析南京地区短时强降水的天气过程对于今后此类天气状况的分析预报具有重大的科学理论意义和实际应用价值。

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