南京地区大气污染物的健康风险及其风险的气象传输研究

论文总字数：24977字

目 录

1 引言 4

2 方法 5

2.1 采样位置和数据收集 5

2.2 超额风险（ER）计算 6

2.3 集群分析（CA） 7

2.4 PSCF分析 7

2.5 条件概率函数（CPF） 7

3 结果与讨论 8

3.1 空气污染概述 8

3.2 超额风险（ER） 10

3.2.1 不同污染物的超额风险 10

3.2.2 超额风险的季节变化 12

3.2.3 CPF模型分析 13

3.2.4 集群分析 15

3.2.5 PSCF和CWT 16

4 结论 16

5 讨论 17

参考文献 20

致谢 24

南京地区大气污染物的健康风险及其风险的气象传输研究

董碧云

，China

ABSTRACT: The hourly monitoring concentrations of six criteria pollutants, including PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂, NO₂, CO and O₃, were collected in Nanjing from January 1 to December 30, 2015, representing winter, spring, summer, autumn, respectively. In general, the air quality was good in Nanjing during the whole year with six pollutant concentrations can meet the second grade of Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standard (CAAQS). However, winter was the most polluted season during 2015, with higher frequencies above the CAAQS Grade II standard and larger average concentrations for six criteria air pollutants except for O3. Winter was also a season with higher health risk than the sum of the other three seasons. PM_2.5 was the major pollutant and the second contributor for excess risk (ER) (35%). ER for NO₂ (36%) was the highest among six air pollutants, followed by ER for PM₁₀ (25%) and O₃ (4%). Conditional Probability Function (CPF), Cluster analysis (CA), Potential Sources Contribution Function (PSCF) analysis and Concentration-Weighted Trajectory (CWT) model were used to investigate the local potential source directions, the transport pathways and the potential sources on regional transport pathways of ER. The results demonstrated that local potential sources mainly related to the direction of east or/and southeast of Nanjing. During winter, local sources located the dominated position, regional transport came from Shandong Province also had a certain contribution to ER. During other three seasons, most potential sources for long-time transport mainly around Nanjing, which located in Anhui Province and the south of Jiangsu Province.

Keywords：Air pollution, Health risk, Transport pathways, Potential Sources

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