江苏省农业气候资源变化特征分析

论文总字数：19981字

目 录

1前言 1

1.1研究背景 1

1.2 研究进展 1

1.2.1国内农业气候资源研究进展 1

1.2.2国外农业气候资源研究进展 1

1.3目的和意义 1

2研究区、研究资料与方法 2

2.1研究区域概况 2

2.2资料来源 2

2.3研究方法 2

2.3.1农业气候资源趋势分析 2

2.3.2 农业气候资源突变分析 3

3结果分析 4

3.1气温变化特征分析 4

3.1.1年平均气温变化特征分析 4

3.1.2年平均气温空间插值分析 5

3.1.3四季平均气温变化特征分析 6

3.1.4年代际平均气温变化特征分析 7

3.1.5年代际四季平均气温变化特征分析 8

3.1.6气温变化突变分析 8

3.2降水量变化特征分析 9

3.2.1年降水量变化特征分析 9

3.2.2年平降水量空间插值分析 10

3.2.3四季降水量变化特征分析 11

3.2.4年代际降水量变化特征分析 12

3.2.5年代际四季降水量变化特征分析 13

3.2.6降水量突变分析 13

3.3日照资源变化特征分析 14

3.3.1年日照时数变化特征分析 14

3.3.2年日照时数空间插值分析 15

3.3.3四季日照时数变化特征分析 16

3.3.4年代际日照时数变化特征分析 17

3.3.5年代际四季日照时数变化特征分析 18

3.3.6年日照时数突变分析 18

3.4农业气候资源变化的可能影响分析 19

4结论与讨论 19

4.1结论 19

4.2讨论 20

4.3不足和展望 20

参考文献： 20

致谢 22

江苏省农业气候资源变化特征分析

周晓杰

，China

Abstract：The article,based on the data of air temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours in Jiangsu Province during 1960-2000, uses the trend analysis method and Mann-Kendall mutation test method to analyze the trend and mutation of agricultural climate resources in Jiangsu province,which studied from the year of the year, the four seasons and the time and the four seasons of the time. The results show that 1）The average temperature of the year has a tendency to fluctuate upward, and the climate tendency rate of the temperature is 0.2 ℃ /10a. MK mutation test showed that the annual average temperature change experienced a sudden increase in 1996.There is a fluctuating downward trend of temporal and spatial distribution of the four seasons. After 1970,the average temperature of spring, summer, autumn and winter are on the rise , winter warming is particularly obvious, it’s climate tendency rate is the highest, which is 0.378℃/10a; temperature of the summer tendency rate is the lowest at the rate of 0.07℃/ 10a. On the spatial distribution, mainly in southern Jiangsu and northern Jiangsu region are the obvious warming, the temperature rises on the east coast is not significant. 2）Annual precipitation increased slowly, and its climate tendency rate was 4.89mm/10a. MK mutation test showed that the annual precipitation did not appear abrupt change. The spatial and temporal distribution of the four seasons was the highest in summer and the lowest in winter. But in spring and autumn, the precipitation tendency rate is negative, and the fall is as high as -14.33mm/10a. On the spatial distribution,most of Jiangsu province showed a trend of increase of annual precipitation, annual precipitation mainly in north Jiangsu area increased obviously, and most of northern and eastern Jianghuai huaibei region showed a trend of decrease.3）Annual sunshine hours experienced a trend of volatility and slow decline, the climate trend rate is -82.6h/10a. After 1990, it tends to be flat, even below the average sunshine hours of the forty years. MK mutation test showed that the average sunshine hours did not appear abrupt change. The temporal and spatial distribution of sunshine hours showed a downward trend.The decrease of sunshine hours in summer is most obvious, and the climate tendency rate is h/10a. -41.34.On the spatial distribution,Jiangsu province showed a trend of decrease in sunshine hours at most of the year, the reduction was more apparent in southwest China, the reduction in northern jiangsu area is not obvious, instead, sunshine time has increased in some areas.

Key words：Jiangsu province; agricultural climate resources; trend analysis; Mann-Kendall test

1前言

1.1研究背景

农业气候资源是农业生产所利用的气候要素中的物质和能量。它是农业自然资源的组成部分，也是农业生产的基本条件。它由光资源、热量资源、水分资源、大气资源和风资源组成。

当今全球气候变暖是全球都很关注的一个重大问题。第四个IPCC的报告显示，1906到2005年全球平均地表温度上升了大约0. 74 ℃^[1]，其中中国的地表温度升高了0.78℃左右，温度增加的速率约为0.07 ℃/10 a^[2]。国内外的相关研究表明^[3-6]，气候资源变化特征中最为显著的是极端气候事件如极端高温、极端低温、极端干旱、极端降水等发生的频率增加并且越发严重，从而导致相对应的灾害现象，譬如干旱、寒流、洪涝等。有研究表明四十年以后几乎全球的农业种植制度将发生翻天覆地的变化：全球气温升高将增加农作物的复种指数和农产品种植的方式多样化，但降水与蒸散之间可能会出现负平衡，而土壤水分的严重紧缺和农作物的生长期的可能缩短，这将大大减少该地区的主要农作物产量^[7-8]。因此在全球气候变暖的大前提之下，我们需要对气候的变化规律进行最大程度上的了解，进而运用科学的方法合理地利用该区域的气候资源，这对该区域农产品的高产优质起着一定的推动作用。

1.2 研究进展

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