论文总字数：18550字

目 录

1引言 3

1.1 研究目的及意义 3

1.2 国内外研究进展 3

2材料与方法 4

2.1数据来源 4

2.2指标选取 5

2.3研究方法 6

2.3.1线性倾向法 6

2.3.2 Mann-Kendall检验法 6

2.3.3累计距平法 7

3结果与分析 7

3.1极端气温分析 8

3.2极端降水分析 13

4讨论与结论 15

4.1讨论 15

4.2结论 16

参考文献 16

致谢 18

贵州省极端天气气候分析

沈慎

, China

Abstract : Based on observation data of daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average temperature and precipitation from 11 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2017 in Guizhou Province, the trend analysis of the 13 extreme climate indices selected was conducted using. Mann-Kendall test and cumulative anomaly are used to further analyze the trends of extreme temperature and precipitation index changes, and determine the mutation time. Finally, the ArcGIS mapping was used to understand the spatial distribution characteristics of extreme weather-event trends. The results showed that: (1)During the period from 1961 to 2017, Guizhou Province showed a warming trend overall. The events of extreme high-temperature showed an increasing trend, and the events of extreme low-temperature showed a declining trend, the annual average temperature climate tendency rate was 0.11°C/10a, and climate warming is mainly manifested as an increase in the events of extreme high-temperature at night. (2)The mutation time of extreme cold events mainly occurred before 2000. The abrupt change time of the annual average temperature change is basically the same as the change's of the summer-day number. (3)Guiyang, central Guizhou, has the most obvious cooling, and the stations with obvious warming are distributed in the eastern and southeastern parts of Guizhou. The spatial consistency of the b-value distribution of the linear regression trend coefficient of the extreme high-temperature index is higher than that of the extreme low temperature index b value distribution consistency. (4)For the past 57 years, the overall frequency and intensity of precipitation in Guizhou Province have continuously decreased and weakened, but the ratio of extreme precipitation to total rainfall is now on an upward trend. The overall change trend of extreme precipitation days is not obvious, but it has declined significantly trend in the 21st century. (5)From the linear trend distribution of each site, the change of total precipitation in the middle and western Guizhou is related to the intensity of precipitation.

Keywords: extreme weather; trend analysis; mutation analysis; Guizhou Province

1引言

1.1 研究目的及意义

2013年Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)第5次评估报告指出，自1950年以来，全球海陆表面持续升温，1880-2012年全球平均温度升高0.85℃^[1]，相比于第4次评估报告所指出的1906-2005年间上升0.74℃^[2]明显升温更快。气象局发布2018《中国气候变化蓝皮书》指出，全球气候仍在持续变暖中，2017年成为有完整气象观测记录以来第二暖的年份^[3]。1951-2017年间，中国地表年平均温度的增长趋势值为0.24℃/10a，超同期全球平均水平；且区域之间有明显差异。伴随气候变暖，中国极端降水事件显著增多，以致北方沙尘天数明显减少，极端低温事件发生频数也渐减；中国气候风险总体升高，包括登陆中国的台风平均强度也有所增强^[4]。由气候变暖引发的强降水、高温、干旱等极端天气事件正在增多，这不仅搅乱社会经济，更加剧了人类的生存危机。

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