论文总字数：17966字

目 录

1. 引言 1

2. 数据资料及方法 2

2.1 研究区域概况 2

2.2 研究资料及数据 2

2.3 研究方法 2

2.3.1线性趋势分析 3

2.3.2Mann-kendall突变检验.....................................................................................3

2..3.3灰色模型预测..................................................................................................4

3. 结果与分析 4

3.1日平均日照时数时间变化..................................................................................................4

3.1.1年变化 4

3.1.2月变化...............................................................................................................6

3.2突变分析..............................................................................................................................8

3.3日照时数与各因子的相关性............................................................................................12

3.4未来五年日照时数预测....................................................................................................14

4. 讨论与结论 14

5. 不足 15

参考文献 15

致谢 17

近40年长三角典型城市日照时数的变化特征

成静

，China

Abstract: The representative three cities, i.e. Shanghai, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, and Nanjing, Jiangsu were selected in the Yangtze River Delta region as research cities, based on the daily sunshine hours, wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation meteorological data from 1975 to 2014, linear trend analysis and correlation, M-K test, and grey forecasting method were used to calculate the daily mean hours of sunshine calculated by using the year and month as a whole to study the characteristics of the changes in the hours of sunshine in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Nanjing in the past 40 years, and the year in which the mutation occurred. and predict the change in the next five years, as well as the correlation between sunshine hours and various factors. The results showed that the average annual sunshine hours of the three cities showed a downward trend, and the monthly average sunshine hours generally showed a downward trend. The individual months showed a slight increase and concentrated in March and April, which is the time of spring. The time points for the reduction of sunshine hours in Shanghai and Hangzhou were in 1996 and 2002, respectively, while the time for the first mutation reduction in Nanjing was 1986. There was a significant negative correlation between sunshine hours and relative humidity and precipitation in the three cities. This shows that the decrease in sunshine hours is related to the increase in precipitation and relative humidity. Using the grey model to predict the average annual sunshine hours in Shanghai, Hangzhou and Nanjing in the next five years will generally show a downward trend.

Key words: Typical cities in the Yangtze River Delta; Sunshine hours ;Trend Coefficient; Correlation Coefficient; Forecast

引言

联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次气候变化评估报告指出^[1]，全球气候正在经历着一次 以变暖为主要特征的显著变化，全球气候变暖已经并将继续对各地自然、经济、社会带来不可估量的影响^[2]。随着全球气候变暖，人口密集度增高，城市化进程加快，大气中排放的二氧化碳等温室气体持续增多，导致了全球各地气候特征的变化，如太阳辐射、气温、日照辐射、降水量和水汽压等。太阳辐射是地球上一切能量的主要来源 而日照时数是太阳辐射最直观的表现。

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