我国新三板ST类挂牌公司财务风险预警研究

论文总字数：26293字

目 录

1引言.....................................................1

1.1背景及意义.............................................................1

1.1.1研究背景.........................................................1

1.1.2研究意义.........................................................1

1.2内容和方法.............................................................1

1.2.1研究内容.........................................................1

1.2.2研究方法.........................................................2

2理论基础与文献综述.......................................2

2.1理论基础...............................................................2

2.1.1生命周期理论.....................................................2

2.1.2财务杠杆理论.....................................................2

2.1.3预警管理理论.....................................................3

2.2文献综述...............................................................3

2.2.1财务风险识别方法.................................................3

2.2.2财务风险控制.....................................................4

2.2.3文献评述.........................................................4

3新三板ST类挂牌公司财务风险预警实证分析..................5

3.1样本选择...............................................................5

3.2变量选择...............................................................6

3.3模型选择...............................................................7

3.4实证分析...............................................................7

3.4.1因子分析.........................................................7

3.4.2基于Logistic回归模型的实证分析.................................11

3.4.3模型的进一步检验................................................15

4结论与建议..............................................16

4.1研究结论..............................................................16

4.2对策建议..............................................................16

4.3不足之处..............................................................17

参考文献..................................................17

致谢......................................................19

我国新三板ST类挂牌公司财务风险预警研究

陈海明

,China

Abstract：As a good financing platform for small and medium-sized enterprises in our country, from the pilot in 2006 to the first expansion, and finally to the whole country, the NEEQ has been continuously developed and perfected in recent years .However, with the increasing number of listed companies, the quality of all kinds of companies varies, the financial risks of listed companies are becoming increasingly apparent. Therefore, how to identify and evaluate the financial risks of the NEEQ listed companies in time and effectively has become an important research topic.Domestic.ST symbols directly reveal the financial risk that the company faced. So this paper chooses early warning of financial risk as the research topic, and studies it from the perspective of empirical research. According to 1:1 principle, this paper selects non-ST listed companies as matched samples with the same year, the same size and the same industry. From the five aspects of solvency, profitability, operating capacity, cash flow capacity and development ability, we select 15 financial indicators as research variables which have an impact on financial risk as research variables. First of all, through the analysis of the current development situation and the existing problems of the NEEQ, this paper explains the background and significance of this study, and then introduces the existing financial risk of the NEEQ listed companies. Then it summarizes and induces the research on financial risk at home and abroad, and introduces the research model and empirical method of this paper. The selected 15 financial indexes are condensed into five principal component factors through factor analysis, and based on these five principal component factors and selected samples, we establish Logistic regression model. Then we select another set of new test samples to further test the model. Finally.it is found that the prediction accuracy of the model is high, and it is suitable for the NEEQ listed company. According to the established early warning model, we put forward some countermeasures and suggestions on how to control the financial risk of the listed company.

Keywords：NEEQ; Financial risk; Early warning of financial risk; Control of financial risk

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