论文总字数：34848字

摘 要

近几十年来，在人类认知和决策研究中，积累了很多无法用经典概率理论来解释的现象。然而，大约从20年前开始，研究者们开始使用量子概率理论来研究人类的认知和决策行为，并发现量子概率理论能很好地对经典概率理论无法解释的现象做出合理解释。因而，量子概率理论是如何对这样的现象做出解释以及它在商务应用能起到什么作用成为了我们所关注的问题。

本文首先概述了量子概率理论的基础知识和它与经典概率理论的不同。然后，本文从合取谬误、决策中的不可交换性——顺序影响、违反确定事件原则——分离效应和不对称相似性这四个方面，对量子概率理论在认知和决策中的应用进行了详细说明。这四个方面的现象在经典概率理论中是完全不合理的，而量子概率理论却能对其进行强有力的解释。其解释的基本原理相同，都是先将问题的结果空间和状态向量表示出来，然后通过投影操作来确定最终的概率或者相似性。最后，本文分析了量子概率理论在商务中的应用。本文先用一个简单的算例说明具体计算以及干扰项的不可推算。然后，利用公司并购的例子说明使用量子概率理论来表示商务问题还是很有价值的。公司并购例子中最终看似不可思议的实证结果也能通过量子概率理论中状态向量的存在而得到合理说明。

量子概率理论及其在认知和决策科学的应用是近年来新兴起的研究方向。本文对量子决策理论及其应用的最新进展进行了系统的总结，并尝试和商务应用相结合。论文的研究内容对量子决策理论及其商务应用都有一定的借鉴意义。

关键词: 量子概率理论；经典概率理论；认知和决策；商务应用

Behavioral decision theory based on Quantum cognition and its business recommended applications

Abstract

In recent decades, there are a lot of the phenomena that can not be explained by classical probability theory in the study of human cognition and decision-making. However, about 20 years ago, researchers started using quantum probability theory to study human cognition and decision-making behavior, and found that the quantum probability theory can make reasonable explanations to the phenomena which can not be explained by classical probability theory. Thus, how to use quantum probability theory to explain these phenomena and what role it can play in business applications has become the points we are concerned.

Firstly, this paper outlines the basics of quantum probability theory and the differences between quantum probability theory and classical probability theory. Secondly, this paper make a detailed description of the applications of quantum probability theory in cognition and decision-making for four aspects including conjunction fallacy, failures of commutativity in decision-making--order effect, violations of the sure thing principle--disjunction effect and asymmetry in similarity. The phenomena of the four aspects are totally unreasonable in the classical probability theory, but quantum probability theory can make strongly explanations to them. The basic principle of the interpretations is same. Representing the outcome space and state vector first, then determining the final probability or similarity by projection. Finally, this paper analyzes the applications of quantum probability theory in business. In this section, this paper firstly use a simple example to explain specific calculations and the interference which can not be calculated. Then, using the examples of Mamp;A illustrates that using quantum probability theory to represent the business problem is valuable. The incredible empirical results in this example can get a reasonable description because of the exist of the state vector in quantum probability theory.

Quantum probability theory and its application in Cognitive and Decision Sciences is the new research direction in recent years. This paper systematically summarizes the latest progress of quantum probability theory and its applications, and tries to combine business applications. This paper has some reference value to quantum probability theory and it business applications.

Keywords: quantum probability theory; classical probability theory; cognitive and decision-making; business applications

目录

摘要...............................................................Ⅰ

Abstract...........................................................Ⅱ

第一章 绪论.........................................................1

1.1 研究背景....................................................1

1.2 国内外文献综述..............................................2

1.2.1 量子概率理论对于认知和决策的适用性....................2

1.2.2 经典模型与量子模型的比较..............................3

1.2.3 量子认知和决策........................................4

1.3 研究的思路与目的............................................5

1.4 本文结构....................................................5

第二章 量子概率理论的基础知识.......................................7

2.1 虚数i.......................................................7

2.2 复数化概率..................................................7

2.3 概率分布于与向量表示........................................8

第三章 量子概率理论与经典概率理论的分析比较........................10

3.1 结果空间...................................................10

3.2 兼容性.....................................................12

3.2.1 不兼容问题...........................................12

3.2.2 兼容问题.............................................15

3.3 时间演变...................................................17

3.4 量子概率与经典概率的区别...................................18

第四章 量子概率理论在认知和决策中的应用............................20

4.1 合取谬误...................................................20

4.2 决策中的不可交换性——顺序影响.............................22

4.3 违反确定事件原则——分离效应...............................23

4.3.1 囚徒困境.............................................23

4.3.2 两阶段赌博任务.......................................24

4.4 不对称相似性...............................................25

第五章 量子概率理论的商务应用......................................27

5.1 概率计算...................................................27

5.1.1 在经典概率理论中的解释...............................27

5.1.2 在量子概率理论中的解释...............................27

5.1.3 小结.................................................29

5.2 量子概率理论在商务决策中的应用.............................29

5.2.1 背景介绍.............................................29

5.2.2 算例分析.............................................30

5.3.3 小结.................................................31

5.3 量子概率理论在商务决策方面的进一步研究.....................31

1. 结束语......................................................33

6.1 总结.......................................................33

6.2 展望.......................................................34

致谢...............................................................35

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