驾驶员激进驾驶行为感知偏差致因分析

论文总字数：38384字

摘 要

近年来，激进驾驶所引发的交通事故或社会事件频频见诸报端，政府和学者对驾驶员激进驾驶行为做了很多研究，这些研究主要集中在激进驾驶行为的影响因素上，研究方法也多是通过问卷从驾驶员个人属性等方面分析其与激进驾驶的相关性。值得注意的是，驾驶员对于自身驾驶激进程度的主观感受与客观事实会存在偏差，对于不同的驾驶员，这种感知偏差的程度会有差别，研究这种感知偏差的影响因素是很有意义的。本次研究设计了驾驶员激进驾驶行为感知偏差调查问卷，并检验了问卷的信效度。问卷内容包括驾驶员的个人社会经济属性、驾驶车辆属性、性格、驾驶行为、交通违法行为等多个方面的题目，根据问卷数据从主客观两个纬度衡量驾驶员驾驶的激进程度，进而计算感知偏差。通过对交通违法行为数据进行处理得到驾驶激进程度的客观度量指标，对激进驾驶行为的数据进行处理得到驾驶激进程度的主观度量指标，比较主客观指标的差别进而计算出驾驶员激进驾驶的感知偏差。以感知偏差作为因变量，以驾驶员年龄等作为自变量，建立Logistic回归模型分析各因素对感知偏差的影响，重点分析了性别和激进驾驶行为对感知偏差的影响。

关键词：激进驾驶；感知偏差；问卷设计；Logistic回归

Abstract

In recent years, traffic accidents or social events caused by aggressive driving have been frequently reported. The government and scholars have done a lot of research on driver's aggressive driving behavior. These studies mainly focus on the factors that influence the aggressive driving behavior, and most of the research methods are through questionnaires, the author analyzes the relevance of the driver's personal attributes to aggressive driving. It is worth noting that the subjective perception and objective facts of the driver's own driving excitement may be different. For different drivers, the degree of this perceived deviation will be different. It is very meaningful to study the influence factors of this perception bias. This study designed a survey questionnaire on the driver's aggressive driving behavior perception bias, and tested the reliability and validity of the questionnaire. The content of the questionnaire includes the driver's personal socio-economic attributes, driving vehicle attributes, personality, driving behavior, traffic violations and other aspects. According to the questionnaire data, the driver's driving degree is measured from two latitudes: subjective and objective, and then the perception is calculated named deviation. Through the processing of data on traffic violations, an objective quantitative index of driving excitement is obtained. The data of aggressive driving behaviors are processed to obtain subjective metrics of driving excitement, and the difference between subjective and objective indicators is used to calculate the perception bias of the driver's aggressive driving. . Perceived deviation was taken as the dependent variable, and the driver’s age was used as the independent variable. A logistic regression model was established to analyze the influence of each factor on perceived bias then analyze the impact of gender and aggressive driving behavior on perception bias

Key Words: aggressive driving; perception bias; questionnaire design; logistic regression

目录

摘要 I

Abstract II

第一章 绪论 1

1.1研究背景 1

1.2研究意义 1

1.3国内外研究现状 2

1.3.1国外研究现状 2

1.3.2国内研究现状 4

1.3.3国内外研究现状总结 5

第二章 激进驾驶基础理论 7

2.1激进驾驶相关概念 7

2.1.1激进驾驶 7

2.1.2激进驾驶评测方法 7

2.1.3研究所用方法介绍 8

2.2激进驾驶相关交通法规 8

2.3激进驾驶感知偏差 9

第三章 问卷设计及调查 10

3.1问卷板块设计 10

3.2问卷信效度检验 11

3.2.1信度检验 11

3.2.2效度检验 12

3.3最终版问卷概况 16

3.4调查结果初步分析 16

3.4.1驾驶员个人属性数据 17

3.4.2驾驶员相关的主观题数据 18

第四章 权重设计及感知偏差计算 20

4.1权重设计 20

4.1.1客观权重设计 20

4.1.2主观权重设计 20

4.2感知偏差计算 24

4.3激进程度及感知偏差结果分析 25

第五章 模型构建及影响因素分析 26

5.1感知偏差为正值时影响因素分析 26

5.1.1变量相关性分析 26

5.1.2构建Logistic模型分析 27

5.2感知偏差为负值时影响因素分析 29

5.2.1变量相关性检验 29

5.2.2构建Logistic模型分析 30

第六章 结论与展望 32

6.1主要研究成果 32

6.2研究不足 32

6.3研究展望 32

参考文献 33

致谢 35

附录 36

第一章 绪论

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