论文总字数：32894字

摘 要

随着城市化进程的加快，人们对于交通出行的需求日益膨胀，截止至2014年4月，中国电动自行车保有量已经达到1.81亿辆。而到目前为止，关于电动自行车成本分析的文献，基本都从其自身成本角度开展，鲜有从电动自行车的社会成本角度开展的研究。

本文以电动自行车的全生命周期为研究对象，通过对其成本的剖析，得到电动自行车的成本结构，并以该结构为基础构建其成本计算模型。电动自行车的成本包括自身成本和社会成本，从消费者的角度来考虑，电动自行车的自身成本计算主要包括购置成本、生命周期内更换电池的总成本、充电成本以及维修维护成本四个部分；从社会环境的角度考虑，电动自行车的成本计算还包括消费者没有承担的社会成本部分，如生命周期内使用的铅酸蓄电池报废后未能回收处理所造成污染的处理成本、因生产铅酸蓄电池而排放的未达标的废水及漏排、偷排的废水所造成污染的处理成本以及电动自行车的交通事故成本三个部分。

基于上述成本计算模型，通过调查和收集大量电动自行车的相关实际数据，计算得到电动自行车的一个生命周期内自身成本为6386.2元，社会成本则高达10771.2元，两者之比为1:1.69。另外，论文从全生命周期和每公里两个角度对电动自行车和轻便摩托车进行了成本计算与对照，通过对电动自行车和轻便摩托车成本的对比分析，对电动自行车在减少碳排放方面所做出的贡献进行了量化，提出了对于电动自行车政策的建立应从其对社会的正面影响和负面影响同时进行考虑的观点。

总之，论文给出的只是一个较宏观的计算方法和流程，还有许多细节需要深入研究，其实例计算的数据也是引用相关文献和经过调研得到的，其准确性和科学性也待进一步完善。

关键词：电动自行车；社会成本；铅酸蓄电池；全生命周期

Electric Bicycle Costs Calculation Models and Analysis

Based on Full Life Cycle

Abstract

With the acceleration of urbanization, the requirement for transportation is expanding. Up to the end of April 2014, the EB ownership in China had reached 181 million. Until now, most of the literatures on cost analysis of EB were from its self-cost to carry out and the perspective of the social costs was not covered, which is the focus of this paper.

Self-cost and social cost are included in the EB cost and EB’s life cycle is regarded as the object for studying. From the consumer's point of view, only the cost which is paid from the beginning for obtaining the right of using till retirement are included in the cost of EB, where the acquisition cost of EB, battery replacement cost within the total life-cycle, charging cost and repairing and maintenance cost are included. Considered from the perspective of the social environment, the cost that not paid directly by the consumers are also included in the cost of EB, where the costs of all lead-acid battery scrap processing within the EB life cycle, the costs of pollution caused by wastewater and the traffic costs are all included.

Based on the calculation models above, a great amount of date is obtained from the surveys and collecting, and the calculation result is that in a life-cycle, the self-cost is 6386.2 RMB, the social cost is 10771.2 RMB, and the ratio of both is 1:1.69. Through the cost comparison between mopeds and electric bicycles, carbon emissions contribution that electric bicycles give is obtained. The policy establishment for electric bicycle should be considered from the positive impact as well as the negative impact.

Only a macro calculation method and process is offered in this paper, further research should also be done to many details. Data in this paper cite literature and research which the accuracy and scientificity also could be further improved.

Keywords: Lead-acid battery, Electric bicycle, Social cost, Full life cycle

目 录

第一章 绪论 1

1.1 研究背景 1

1.2 研究现状 2

1.3 研究内容 2

1.4 技术路线 3

第二章 电动自行车计算模型建立 5

2.1 基于全生命周期的成本结构分析 5

2.2 电动自行车成本结构 6

2.3 电动自行车自身成本计算模型 6

2.3.1 购置成本 6

2.3.2 电池更换成本 7

2.3.3 充电成本 7

2.3.4 维修维护成本 7

2.3.5 电动自行车自身成本 7

2.4 电动自行车社会成本计算模型 8

2.4.1 铅酸蓄电池污染处理成本 8

2.4.2 交通事故成本 8

2.4.3 电池生产造成污染的处理成本 8

2.4.4 电动自行车社会成本 9

2.5 电动自行车成本计算模型 9

2.6 本章小结 9

第三章 电动自行车成本实例计算 10

3.1 自身成本计算 10

3.1.1 购置成本 10

3.1.2 电池更换成本 10

3.1.3 充电成本 10

3.1.4 维修维护成本 11

3.2 社会成本计算 12

3.2.1 铅酸蓄电池污染处理成本 12

3.2.2 交通事故成本 12

3.2.3 电池生产造成污染的处理成本 13

3.3 成本汇总 13

3.4 成本比较分析 13

3.5 本章小结 14

第四章 电动自行车对碳排放的贡献 15

4.1 成本结构对比 15

4.2 轻便摩托车成本计算 16

4.2.1 自身成本 16

4.2.2 社会成本 16

4.3 成本对比分析 17

4.4 电动自行车对碳排放的贡献 18

4.5 结果分析 19

4.6 本章小结 20

第五章 总结与展望 21

5.1 电动自行车发展与影响 21

5.2 问题改善 21

5.3 电动自行车发展展望 22

参考文献 23

致谢 26

论文撰写 27

附表1. 电动自行车型号价格对照表 28

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