自贸区跨境电商对中国外贸影响的实证研究

论文总字数：22228字

摘 要

2008年金融危机以来，世界经济经受打击后复苏速度持续疲软，国际间贸易发展放缓。中国作为全球贸易规模最大的国家，近些年持续出现负增长的现象，对外贸易的形式复杂而不容乐观。而跨境电商作为一种新型的贸易模式，近些年却呈现逆增长的趋势，相比传统贸易，跨境电商有着小额多批，运输高效，流程简单的特点，在传统贸易发展减缓的背景下，火速发展，成为对我国对外贸易十分重要的影响因素。

2013年，中国第一个自由贸易试验区在上海正式运行试水，各项政策举措得到一致好评。随后在2014年，在我国一些沿海地区，重要港口地区建立了自贸区。现在看来，效果显著，对外贸易的能力越来越强。

并结合近几年来的数据建立计量模型，对比全国内的跨境电商与自贸区跨境电商对于我国外贸影响差异从而得到：自贸区的跨境电商更能有力地拉动我国对外贸易发展。最后依据影响跨境电商的主要因素来对自贸区发展跨境电商提出相应对策与建议。

关键字：跨境电商 自由贸易试验区 对外贸易 灰色预测模型

Abstract

Since the financial crisis in 2008, the recovery rate of the world economy has remained weak after being hit, and the development of international trade has slowed down. As the largest country in terms of global trade, China has been experiencing negative growth in the past two years. As a new trade mode, cross-border e-commerce has been developing rapidly in the past two years. Compared with traditional trade, cross-border e-commerce has the characteristics of small amount and multiple batches, efficient transportation and simple process. Under the background of slowing down the development of traditional trade, rapid development has become a very important factor affecting China's foreign trade.

In 2013, China's first pilot free trade zone was officially launched in Shanghai. Then in 2014, free trade zones were established in some coastal areas and important port areas of China. The above sea trial contents were taken as the main body, combined with local characteristics, new test contents were added. Now it seems that the effect is remarkable, and the ability of foreign trade is getting stronger and stronger.

Combined with the data in recent years, an econometric model was established to compare the impact difference between cross-border e-commerce in China and cross-border e-commerce in free trade zones on China's foreign trade. Thus, it can be concluded that cross-border e-commerce in free trade zones can more effectively drive the development of China's foreign trade. Finally, according to the main factors affecting cross-border e-commerce, countermeasures and Suggestions are put forward for the development of cross-border e-commerce in the free trade zone.

Key words: Cross-border e-commerce, FTZ, foreign trade.

目 录

摘 要 Ⅱ

Abstract Ⅲ

1 绪论

1.1论题背景意义 1

1.2文献综述 2

1.2.1 全国范围跨境电商对外贸影响文献综述 2

1.2.2 自贸区跨境电商对外贸影响文献综述 3

1.3研究基本思绪与方式 3

1.3.1 研究思绪 3

1.3.2 研究方式 4

2 理论研究中国自贸区跨境电商对外贸的影响 5

2.1 理论层面研究自贸区跨境电商发展 5

2.1.1 自贸区功能定位 5

2.1.2 自贸区SWOT分析 6

2.2 跨境电商对中国对外贸易的影响 8

2.3 自贸区跨境电商对传统贸易产生的影响 10

3 自贸区跨界电商发展现状 12

3.1 自贸区跨境电商的主要问题 12

4 模型分析 14

4.1 灰色预测模型 14

4.2 数据选取来源 15

4.3 模型分析原理说明 16

4.4 GM（1,1）预测结果 17

4.5 模型精度检验 18

4.5.1 残差检验 18

4.5.2 后验差检验 18

4.6 预测值的计算 19

4.7 结论分析 19

5 自贸区发展跨境电商战略建议 20

5.1 物流问题及对策 20

5.1.1 物流现状 20

5.1.2 对策 21

5.2 完善网络系统 23

5.3 大力发展国际服务产业 23

5.4 发展外贸商城 24

5.5 合理避免盲目生产 24

5.6 全面出台扶持政策 25

5.7 充分利用先进技术 25

6 结论 26

参考文献 27

致谢 28

第1章 绪论

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