论文总字数：40705字

摘 要

在全球能源互联和能源结构转型的背景下，电力发展迅速，电力贸易获得良好的发展条件和广阔的发展空间。与此同时，“一带一路”国际互联平台发展迅速，电力贸易互联作为“一带一路”互联互通的重要组成部分，对“一带一路”国家更具现实影响。在这样的研究背景下，本文选取65个“一带一路”国家2000-2017年的相关数据进行多元分样本回归，研究“一带一路”沿线国家间电力贸易互联的经济效应。

本文经过研究得出如下结论：1、电力贸易进出口总额对带路国家经济有显著的正向拉动作用，其中电力出口贸易的作用更为突出；2、在“一带一路”西部、中部、东部地区中，东部地区的电力贸易发展对经济增长的促进作用最为突出，西部地区电力贸易对经济增长的促进作用最为显著，中部地区相对弱势，其电力贸易对经济增长的影响尚不清晰；3、“一带一路”倡议提出前电力贸易互联对经济增长的影响显著可测，综合来看具有正面拉动作用，尚不能根据“一带一路”倡议提出后的相关数据和结果得出明晰的结论。

关键词：电力贸易，经济效应，“一带一路”，互联互通

Abstract

Under the background of global energy interconnection and energy structure transformation, electricity has developed rapidly, and electricity trade has obtained good development conditions and broad development space. At the same time, the Belt and Road (Bamp;R) international interconnection platform has developed rapidly, and the electricity trade interconnection is an important part of it and has realistic impact on related countries. Under this background, this research selects the data of 65 Bamp;R countries from 2000 to 2017 for multiple regression in different samples to study the economic effects of interconnection of electricity trade among countries along the Belt and Road.

The following conclusions are drawn: 1. The total import and export of electricity trade has a significant positive effect on the economy of the Bamp;R countries, among which the role of electricity export trade is more prominent; 2. Among the western, central and eastern regions of the Belt and Road, the development of electricity trade in the eastern region has the most prominent role in promoting economic growth. The electricity trade in the western region has the most significant effect on economic growth. The central region is relatively weak, and the impact of its electricity trade on economic growth is still unclear; 3.Before the Belt and Road Initiative proposed, the impact of the electricity trade interconnection on economic growth is significantly measurable. On the whole, it has a positive pulling effect. It is still not possible to draw clear conclusions based on the relevant data and results to know what impact electricity trade interconnection has on economic growth after the Belt and Road Initiative was proposed.

KEY WORDS: electricity trade, economic effect, the Belt and Road, interconnection

目 录

摘 要 III

Abstract IV

第一章 绪论 2

1.1 研究背景与意义 2

1.1.1 研究背景 2

1.1.2 研究意义 3

1.2 研究内容与方法 3

1.2.1 研究内容 3

1.2.2 研究方法 4

1.3 可能的创新点 4

第二章 电力贸易互联经济效应的文献综述 5

2.1 贸易的经济效应 5

2.2 能源贸易的经济效应 6

2.3 电力贸易的经济效应 7

2.4 本章小结 9

第三章 “一带一路”沿线国家电力与社会经济发展概况 10

3.1 “一带一路”沿线国家电力发展概况 10

3.2 “一带一路”沿线国家社会经济发展概况 12

3.3 本章小结 15

第四章 “一带一路”沿线国家间电力贸易互联经济效应实证研究 17

4.1 模型设定与变量选择 17

4.2 数据来源与样本分析 18

4.3 总贸易模型分析 19

4.3.1 总样本回归 19

4.3.2 分区域回归 20

4.3.3 分阶段回归 22

4.4 进口贸易模型分析 23

4.4.1 总样本回归 23

4.4.2 分区域回归 24

4.4.3 分阶段回归 26

4.5 出口贸易模型分析 27

4.5.1 总样本回归 27

4.5.2 分区域回归 28

4.5.3 分阶段回归 30

第五章 结论与展望 32

5.1 研究结论 32

5.2 政策建议 33

5.3 研究的不足与展望 33

参考文献 34

附 录 36

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