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题目(英文) Environmental effects on China’s FDI

题目(中文) 环境污染对外商直接投资影响研究

院 （系）： 经济管理学院

专 业：国际贸易

姓 名：米卡

学 号：14214170

指导教师：杨帆

起止日期 2018.01.01——2018.06.10

设计地点 东南大学九龙湖校区

Environmental effects on China’s FDI

Abstract: Foreign direct investment plays an important role in the world economy. Between the countries there is a huge competition for their involvement as they positively affect the economy of a recipient country. In addition to the direct effects, such as GDP growth, budget revenues, reducing unemployment, direct foreign investment positively impacts a host country indirectly in the form of new knowledge, transfer of experience, technology propagation, etc.

The aim of the study is to identify environmental factors that affect the inflow of foreign direct investment into China. The hypotheses of the research are the following assumptions: 1) The level of the risk to the health of foreign investors affects the flow of FDI in China. 2) Environmental regulation as a determinant for a foreign firm’s choice of entry mode. 3) China exports pollution alongside goods. 4) Western technology is not able to fully operate in China’s ecological conditions. 5) Environmental risks for China’s geographically-adjacent countries.

For the verification of the hypotheses, an economic-mathematical model with fixed effects has been used. At the same time, such factors as availability of natural resources and extraction of minerals have not been considered while modeling the foreign direct investment inflows due to the lack of statistical data. The results of econometric modeling have revealed the presence of a statistically significant negative relationship between the inflow of foreign direct investment and the following indicators chosen to verify the statements.

In addition to the independent parameters, the research has revealed other control variables that significantly affect the volume of foreign direct investment in the cities of China. They are GDP growth rate, total import and export of goods, total investment in fixed assets, average wages of employees on the job, and capital investment in the regions. The research is based on environmental, economic, social, political, civil, and other development indicators of 261 cities of China for 2003-2014. The obtained data and results will be useful for the regional authorities in order to develop and improve investment policy for a significant increase in foreign direct investment inflows.

Key words: Foreign direct investment, environment, economic growth, export and import

环境污染对外商直接投资影响研究

文摘: 外商直接投资在世界经济中发挥着重要的作用。外国资本对各国经济的影响是巨大的和有竞争力的，因为它们积极影响受援国的经济。除了直接影响GDP增长、预算收入、减少失业外，外商直接投资也以经验转移、技术传播等形式间接影响东道国。

本研究的目的是分析中国的环境因素对外商直接投资的影响。中国的环境因素对外商的影响机理如下：第一，中国的环境因素可能影响对外投资者的健康水平，从而抑制中国的FDI总量. 第二，中国的环境因素会使中国的环境规制有所变化，环境规制会直接影响投向中国的FDI. 第三，中国的环境污染会导致中国的出口产品质量下降，从而影响外商投向中国的FDI. 第四，在环境污染严重的情况下，发达国家投资的机器和器械可能不能正常运转，进而影响外商对华直接投资. 第五，在中国环境严重污染的情况下，促使中国生产更多的产品可能会导致污染蔓延到邻近的国家。基于此，邻近的国家可能会减少对中国的FDI.

为了验证这些陈述，本文使用了具有固定效应的经济计量模型。同时，由于缺乏相关统计数据，在模拟外商直接投资流入时，没有考虑到自然资源的可用性和矿产的提取等因素。本文计量模型的结果表明，外商直接投资的流入与选择与验证报表的指标之间存在着显著的负相关关系。

除了自变量，研究发现其他控制变量也显著影响外商直接在中国的城市投资额。分别是GDP增长率、货物进出口总额、固定资产投资总额、在岗职工平均工资和区域内的资本投资。本研究基于环境、经济、社会、政治、公民、并对中国261个城市发展2003-2014等指标。所获得的数据和结果将有助于地区政府制定和完善投资政策，以增加外商直接投资的流入。

关键词：外商直接投资, 环境, 经济增长,进出口

TABLE OF CONTENT

english abstract 2

chinese abstract 3

CHAPTER 1 5

INTRODUCTION 5

1.1 Background 5

1.2 Objective of the study 6

1.3 Importance of study 7

1.4 Methodology 9

1.5 Thesis structure 10

CHAPTER 2 11

LITERATURE REVIEW 11

2.1 Literature on economic growth and environment 11

2.2 Foreign Direct Investment and Environment 13

CHAPTER 3 15

THEORETICAL STUDY 15

3.1 The effect of foreign investors’ health risks on FDI inflow 15

3.2 Environmental policy can discourage FDI 17

3.3 China exports pollution alongside goods 19

3.4 Western technology is not able to fully operate in China’s ecological conditions 22

3.5 Environmental risks for China’s geographically-adjacent countries 23

CHAPTER 4 26

EMPIRICAL STUDY 26

4.1 Empirical Analysis: The methodology 26

4.2 Data source 28

4.3 Results description 29

CHAPTER 5 33

5.1 Conclusions 33

5.2 Recommendations 33

REFERENCES 34

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) - investment by foreign companies in overseas subsidiaries or joint ventures - has a traditional reliance on natural resource use and extraction, particularly agriculture, mineral and fuel production. Though this balance has shifted in recent years, the poorest countries still receive a disproportionate amount of investment flows into their natural resource sectors.

The past decade has also seen all trends of environmental degradation accelerate – for example, greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, loss of biodiversity. Such patterns of environmental destruction have been driven by increased economic activity, of which FDI has become an increasingly significant contributor. Flows of natural resource-based commodities and investment are predicted to rise faster than economic output over the next twenty years. It is therefore critical to understand the environmental effects of private investment and identify appropriate responses.

Currently, the People's Republic of China is one of the fastest growing economies in the world and one of the most successful examples of economic modernization with the help of foreign direct investments. China alone receives 40 per cent from 70 per cent of total FDI flows, attracting investors with a more open trading regime and rapidly growing market opportunities.

The high level of capital intensity of China's GDP has no analogs in the world, so investments in fixed assets are one of the main resources of the country's economic development. Because of a steady increase in investments, the share of the poor population in China has decreased from 65% of the country's population at the beginning of reforms in 1978 to 10% at present. In modern market conditions, China demonstrates how a large growing economy can achieve high growth rates through prudent macroeconomic management combined with a long-term policy of attracting foreign investment.

In the developing economy, the impact of foreign direct investment is ambiguous. FDI in China was an important element of investment in fixed assets since the beginning of economic reforms. In the early 1980s, foreign investment accounted for less than 5% of total investment in fixed assets. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, this share slightly increased, fluctuating about 6%. The share of FDI in the total volume of investments in fixed assets reached the highest level, more than 10%, in the mid-1990s, when the flow of FDI accelerated. But as a result of the Asian financial crisis, investment in fixed assets due to foreign sources began to decline. Despite the value growth of foreign direct investment after gaining membership in the WTO, the share of FDI in the total volume of investments in fixed assets decreased to 2% in 2010.

FDI accounts for a significant share of industrial production in China. This level rose from 2.3% in 1990 to 35.9% in 2003 but fell to 27.1% by 2010. In addition, enterprises with foreign capital make a significant contribution to the volume of China's foreign trade. In 2011, enterprises with foreign capital formed 52.4% of Chinese exports and 49.6% of imports, although this level has declined since 2006, when the share of FDI in Chinese exports and imports reached 58.2% and 59.7%, respectively.

With the growth of attracted FDI, competition in the domestic Chinese market is intensifying; the number of private companies operating on a market basis is increasing, which is the reason for improving their productivity. China has achieved high indicators of total factor productivity (TFP). TFP is the portion of output not explained by traditionally measured inputs of labor and capital used in production and is often associated with the consequences of scientific and technological progress and increased efficiency. China is experiencing a rapid increase in TFP due to the ability to access and use existing foreign technologies and know-how. Deputy Minister of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China Cao Jianlin noted that over the past years, the number of patents granted in the country has significantly increased. In 2002, 15,600 certificates were issued. At the end of 2012, the number of issued patents increased to 217.1 thousand certificates. Exports of high-tech products in 1998 amounted to 12%, currently, the third part of all exports account for high-tech goods. Since 2001, 80% of high-tech exports have been provided by companies with foreign investment. During the same period, the share of high-tech exports of foreign subsidiaries (excluding joint ventures with Chinese firms) increased from 55% to 67%. However, these economic gains have come at a cost.

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