我国出口产品结构的演变特征及影响因素研究

论文总字数：19538字

摘 要

：新中国对外贸易经过近30年的快速发展,对外贸易的规模已经取得了很大的成就。我国总体出口额从1980年的193.0亿美元增加到2014年的23422亿美元，出口额排名世界第1位。出口商品结构也在不停地优化，出现了两次巨大的跨越。我国已然成为了世界上瞩目的贸易大国。中国已成为世界上最大的贸易国,但不能认为是世界贸易强国,与世界其他国家的贸易实力相比,仍然有巨大的差距,如果想成为一个世界贸易强国,实际上,还有很长的路要走。因此分析出口产品结构对一国经济发展十分重要，只有了解清楚产品结构的演变特征及影响因素，才能找出优化出口产品结构的方法。

本文首先从中国出口产品的近状出发，结合最新相关的贸易数据，分析了中国出口产品结构近20年的演变特征。依据一系列的相关统计数据，列出了改革开放以来，我国出口产品由以初级制品为主向以制成品为主进行改变，同时指出了相关的问题所在。并且，本文以贸易理论为基础，选取了外商直接投资、科技水平、要素禀赋结构、贸易政策这四个重要因素，运用了相关性分析和线性回归模型，分析了中国出口产品结构的影响。

中国出口商品结构已经进入了一个重大调整的阶段,中国的商品出口贸易未来的发展方向应该在保持现有出口规模,商品出口将进一步扩大重点放在资本、技术和知识密集的产物。本文最后在前文分析出口产品结构演变特征和影响因素基础上，提出了对优化出口产品结构的建议。

关键词: 出口产品结构；演变特征；影响因素

Research on the evolution characteristics and influencing factors of China's export product structure

14Y12113 ShenYing

Supervised by FengWei

Abstract: New China's foreign trade has grown nearly 30 years, after these years of rapid development, China's foreign trade scale has made great achievements. Exports increased from $194 billion 900 million in 1980 to $999 in the year, ranking the world's ninth place in the world. Export commodity structure is also in constant optimization, there have been two big leap. China has become the world's attention trading power. China has become the largest trading country in the world, but still not a world trade power, compared with the rest of the world trade power, there is still a big gap, if you want to become a world trade power, indeed, and a long way to go. So it is very important to analyze the structure of export products to a country's economic development. Only by understanding the evolution characteristics and influencing factors of product structure, can we find out the method to optimize the structure of export products.

This article first from the current situation of China's export products, combined with the latest trade data, analysis of the evolution of China's export product structure in recent 20 years. According to a series of relevant statistical data, lists the reform and opening up, China's export products from the primary products to the main products to change, and pointed out the relevant problems. And the trade theory as the basis, select the comparative advantage and factor endowment structure, the level of science and technology of the three important factors, the use of correlation analysis and linear regression model to analysis the influence of the structure of export products in China.

China's export commodity structure has entered into an adjustment phase, the future development direction of Chinese export commodities trade should is in keeping the size of product have been exported and made the focus under the capital, technology and knowledge intensive products further expansion of exports of goods. Finally, based on the analysis of the evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the export product structure, this paper puts forward the suggestion of optimizing the structure of export products.

Keywords: Export product structure; Evolution characteristics; Influence factors

目 录

中文摘要 Ⅰ

英文摘要 Ⅱ

1 绪论 1

1.1 论文的研究背景 1

1.2 论文的研究意义 1

1.3 研究内容 1

1.4 可能的创新之处与不足之处 3

2 理论基础和文献综述 4

2.1 理论基础 4

2.2 文献综述 4

3 我国出口产品结构的总体演变特征 6

3.1 我国对外贸易发展的现状 6

3.2 出口产品结构的变动 7

4 我国出口产品结构变动的影响因素 10

4.1 影响因素的机制说明 10

4.2 变量的测度 12

4.3 实证分析 13

5 研究结论及对策 15

5.1 研究结论 15

5.2 对策 15

参考文献 17

致谢 18

附录 19

我国出口产品结构的

演变特征及影响因素研究

1. 绪论

1.1论文的研究背景

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