论文总字数：27016字

摘 要

中国乳制品行业的高速发展是经济发展、人们生活水平提高的必然结果。牛乳中含有能促进人类生长发育以及维持健康水平的几乎一切必须的营养成分，被公认为的理想食品。食用乳制品对国民身体素质的提高具有十分重要的意义。改革开放以来，中国乳制品行业经历了萌芽期、成长期和快速发展期。虽然发生了“三聚氰胺”、“致癌皮革奶”等一系列严重影响乳制品销量的重大事件之后，中国乳制品产量和销量都有所下滑，但总体来说，中国乳制品的产量和销量呈上升趋势。乳制品行业的发展在促进我国农业结构调整、增加农民收入、扩大内需、增加消费和提高国民身体素质等方面的作用越来越明显。然而，中国的乳制品行业毕竟起步晚、基础薄弱，加上2001年中国加入WTO，国外的乳制品以质优价廉等特性迅速占领中国市场，对中国乳制品行业产生巨大压力。相比于新西兰、美国、德国、澳大利亚等乳制品生产大国，中国的乳制品行业存在很多问题，如奶畜单产水平低、企业规模小、生产技术落后、饲养人员学历低以及草场环境日益恶化等，其国际竞争力较弱。面对这种情况，深入分析中国乳制品行业的竞争力，并从中找到问题关键，提出建设性建议，对中国乳制品行业的高效可持续发展史十分重要的。

本文一共可以分为五部分。第一部分绪论。该部简单概括了中国乳制品行业发展的时代机遇及存在的问题和挑战。第二部分文献综述。文献综述按国际竞争力的研究现状、中国乳制品行业的研究现状和中国乳制品行业竞争力的研究现状的方法分类梳理。文献综述是本文写作的理论基础和重要参考。第三部分运用“钻石模型”对中国乳制品行业的现状及其国际竞争力的影响因素的定性的分析。第四部分实证研究。国际竞争力是一个抽象的概念，不能直接通过计算得出，笔者选取出口额来反映国际竞争力。较为常见的研究国际竞争力的实现指标包括国际市场占有率和显示性比较优势。总的来说，不管用哪种国际竞争力评价指标，中国乳制品行业的国际竞争力都比较弱。用于实证研究的模型是贸易引力模型，结合国情对相关变量进行调整和加入合理的新的变量，是模型更具有适用性。第五部分结论和建议。通过定性和定量分析我国乳制品行业的竞争力的现状，得出影响其发展的结论，并根据结论提出合理的建议：第一，加快技术进步，积极引进新技术，重视人才培养；第二，促进乳制品行业结构调整；第三，政府采取措施、出台政策，支持中国乳制品行业的发展，适当控制洋奶粉对中国市场的占领。

关键词：乳制品行业 国际竞争力 钻石模型 影响因素 贸易引力模型

China's Dairy Industry Competitiveness Analysis

Abstract

The rapid development of China's dairy industry is the inevitable result of the economic development and living standards improvement. Milk is recognized as the ideal food because it contains almost all the nutrients necessary to promote human growth and development and to maintain a healthy level. Dairy products is of great significance to improve the national physical fitness. Since the reform and opening up, China's dairy industry has experienced germination, growth and rapid development period. A series of serious impact sales of dairy products, like "melamine", "carcinogenic leather milk" incidents and so on, the Chinese dairy products are the decline in production and sales. But overall, production and sales of China's dairy have upward trend. The role of the development of the dairy industry in the promotion of agricultural restructuring, increase farmers' incomes, expand domestic demand, increase consumption and improve the national physical fitness and so on is very important. However, China's dairy industry, after all, started late and have weak foundation. In 2001, China joined the WTO, foreign dairy products and cheap characteristics quickly occupying the Chinese market. These make China's dairy industry a tremendous pressure. Compared to New Zealand, the United States, Germany, Australia and other dairy producing countries, there are many problems of China's dairy industry, such as low yields, small scale, backward production technology, low-keeping personnel qualifications and pasture environment deteriorating, etc, making its international competitiveness very weak. Faced with this situation, in-depth analysis of the competitiveness of China's dairy industry, and to find the crux of the problem, put forward constructive proposals for the sustainable development of Chinese history and efficient dairy industry is very important.

This article can be divided into five parts altogether. The first part is the introduction. This section simply outlines the issues of challenges and opportunity to develop China's dairy industry . The second part is literature review. Literature review is classified by the international competitiveness of the research status, research status quo of China's dairy industry and the research status quo of China's dairy industry competitiveness. Literature review is the theoretical basis and important reference of this writing. The third part is qualitative analysis of the status quo and the international competitiveness of China's dairy industry influence factors using "Diamond model". The fourth part is an Empirical Study. Because International competitiveness is an abstract concept, which can not be directly calculated, I selected exports to reflect the international competitiveness. Common study of international competitiveness includes international market share and revealed comparative advantage. In general, no matter what kind of international competitiveness evaluation is used, the international competitiveness of China's dairy industry are weak. Model for the Empirical Study is trade gravity model, combined with national conditions and adjusted by relevant variables joined reasonably new variable, making the model more applicable. Part V is conclusions and recommendations. Through qualitative and quantitative analysis of the status quo of competitiveness of China's dairy industry, draw conclusions of the impact of its development and put forward reasonable proposals based on the conclusions: First, speed up technological progress, actively introduce new technologies, and pay attention to personnel training; secondly, to promote dairy products industry restructuring; third, the government has taken measures to introduce policies to support the development of China's dairy industry, and properly control of foreign occupation of Chinese milk powder market.

Keywords: dairy industry; international competitiveness; diamond model; factors; trade gravity model

目录

摘 要 I

Abstract II

1．绪论 1

1.1 研究的背景及意义 1

1.2 研究的方法 2

1.3创新点和不足 2

2.文献综述 3

2.1关于国际竞争力的研究现状 3

2.1.1 波特的“钻石模型”理论 3

2.1.2 国际市场占有率 3

2.1.3 显示性比较优势 4

2.2 关于中国乳制品行业的研究现状 4

2.3 关于中国乳制品行业竞争力的研究现状 4

3.中国乳制品行业的现状及其竞争力影响因素分析 6

3.1生产要素 6

3.1.1劳动力-土地-资本-企业家才能-技术-信息 6

3.1.2 中国乳制品生产技术及产量现状 7

3.2需求状况 8

3.2.1 中国乳制品销量现状 9

3.3企业的战略、结构和竞争对手的表现 10

3.3.1乳业巨头的发展现状 10

3.4相关产业和支持产业的表现 11

3.4.1生产——加工——运输——销售——售后 11

3.5机遇和政府行为 11

4.中国乳制品行业的竞争力及其影响因素实证研究 12

4.1中国乳制品贸易引力模型的建立 12

4.1.1应变量选取 12

4.3.2 自变量选取 13

4.3.3 评价过程 15

5.结论及对策建议 18

5.1加快技术进步，积极引进新技术，重视人才培养 18

5.2促进乳制品行业结构调整 18

5.3政府采取措施、出台政策 18

参考文献 19

致 谢 20

1．绪论

1.1 研究的背景及意义

我国乳制品行业起步晚，起点低，但是增长速率快，消费总量高但人均消费量低。改革开放以来，中国经济飞速发展，人名生活水平提高，人们逐渐重视营养均衡，加之国外饮食文化的影响渗透，大量的乳制品需求促进了中国乳制品行业的高速发展。但是高速发展的同时，我国乳制品行业也暴露出很多问题。2008年，三鹿奶粉为导火线，引起整个乳制品行业的沦陷。企业家对利益的盲目追求、市场竞争机制缺陷、监督审查制度漏洞等，都是乳制品行业发生此次振动的重要因素。“三聚氰胺”事件以及之后发生的“致癌皮革奶”等一系列事件，导致消费者对国产乳品信心不足，更愿意去购买进口高价奶粉。需求减少，乳品企业不购买原奶，杀牛倒奶、鲜奶喂猪等恶性事件对我国奶农造成很大伤害，企业也承受损失。另外，生产成本越来越高，原奶价格波动频繁，乳制品企业购买进口奶粉生产复原乳，奶牛养殖效益降低等种种问题都不利于我国乳制品行业的发展。

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