中国OFDI对海外劳务输出的影响及其实证研究

论文总字数：30809字

摘 要

中国作为一个劳动力资源相对充沛的国家，国内就业市场并不能完全消化全国的劳动力供给。而开展海外劳务输出有助缓和国内严峻的就业形势。同时，近年来中国对外直接投资持续飙升，海外投资净额居于世界第2。2016年年初中国对外直接投资额已经超过了实际吸纳利用的外资金额，而亚投行和丝路基金的设立也表明中国还将继续扩大海外投资影响力。在此背景下，本文基于2003-2015年63个国家和地区的面板数据进行实证分析进而研究中国海外投资对劳务输出的影响。研究发现，中国对外直接投资能够促进对外劳务输出，并对海外工程承包有正向影响。按收入标准进行分组后的国别回归结果则显示中国对低收入国家的投资比在其他任何国家都更能促进本国的劳务输出。而中国在高收入国家的投资则对劳务输出尤其是劳务合作没有显著影响。

关键词：对外直接投资 劳务输出 实证研究

CHINESE OUTWARD FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND LABOR SERVICE EXPORT: AN EMPIRICAL RESEARCH BASED ON

MULTI-COUNTRY PANEL DATA

ABSTRACT

As a country of large population, the problem of excessive labor supply in China is much more severe than many other countries. Labor service export is an efficient way to obtain employment and to some extent, ease the flinty occupational situation in China. Moreover, China’s total outward investment has been kept soaring in the recent years and become the third largest investors overseas. In particular, the amount of outward foreign direct investment from China exceed the figure of foreign direct investment actually used in Mainland China in the first five months of 2016. This paper uses multi-country panel data empirical research to study the relationship between OFDI and labor service export. The result of full-sampled regression illustrate that the OFDI from China has positive impact on the labor service export and overseas project contracting. Moreover, according to the world development indicators issued by World Bank, we put these 63 countries into 4 groups by income level and find that China’s OFDI in the poorest countries in the world prompts the amount of labor service export to increase faster and lager than any other countries Chinese investors have investment. Besides, the result of group samples regression shows that the OFDI from China has no significant effect on the labor service export when the receiving country has much more higher income level.

KEY WORDS: OFDI，Labor Service Export，Empirical Research

目 录

摘要 ………………………………………………………………………………………Ⅰ

ABSTRACT ………………………………………………………………………………Ⅱ

1. 导言…………………………………………………………………………………1
   1. 问题的提出………………………………………………………………………1
   2. 研究意义…………………………………………………………………………1
   3. 研究方法和技术路线……………………………………………………………2
2. 文献综述……………………………………………………………………………4
   1. 国外相关文献回顾………………………………………………………………4
   2. 国内相关文献回顾………………………………………………………………5
   3. 小结………………………………………………………………………………6
3. 现状分析……………………………………………………………………………7

3.1中国劳务输出发展概况…………………………………………………………7

3.2中国劳务输出市场与行业分布…………………………………………………8

3.3中国对外直接投资发展概况 …………………………………………………11

3.4中国对外直接投资区域与行业分布 …………………………………………13

1. 模型设定与数据说明 ……………………………………………………………18

4.1 计量模型设定…………………………………………………………………18

4.2 指标变量………………………………………………………………………18

4.3 数据来源………………………………………………………………………19

1. 计量估计结果与分析 ……………………………………………………………21

5.1 平稳性检验……………………………………………………………………21

5.2 全样本回归结果分析…………………………………………………………21

5.3 分组回归结果分析……………………………………………………………24

1. 结论和政策建议 …………………………………………………………………28

6.1 结论……………………………………………………………………………28

6.2 政策建议………………………………………………………………………29

参考文献……………………………………………………………………………………31

致谢…………………………………………………………………………………………33

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