论文总字数：30685字

摘 要

随着世界经济一体化程度的深入，国际贸易的关税壁垒在被得到关注后始终在被尝试削减，然而，全球贸易的边际贡献确在近些年表现出增长疲软的态势，甚至某些国家的数据出现了倒退的情况。渐渐地，贸易的非效率问题作为一种隐形的贸易壁垒引起了重视。贸易便利化在经历全面且深刻的讨论之后，被纳入“多哈发展议程”，成为公认的跨国经济合作的新的助推力。由此，世界各国开始从制度、硬件、程序、平台等多个维度尝试推进贸易便利化的改革。

2010年成立了与双方发展愿景一致的中国—东盟自由贸易区，合作的广度和深度进一步得到催化。放眼全球双方在农业领域都有着不容忽视的国际地位，农产品的经济合作毫无疑问也一直是中国与东盟共同发展的重点。因此，如何从贸易便利化的视角帮助双方走出农产品进口总额增长乏力的困境，而这将会给我国贸易便利化改革带来何种启示，是本文的关键。

首先，本文分析东盟成员国便利化的发展现状，利用引力模型对其中七国的贸易规模、国民生产总值、贸易便利化等进行实证分析，研究影响中国对东盟出口农产品的因素，最后给出对策建议。根据本文的研究，东盟成员国内部便利化水平存在区域性差异，不便利的国家占多数，因此推行贸易便利化有一定必要性。同时，农产品的出口问题本身具有一定的敏感性。所以，中国—东盟自由贸易区的各国应共同携手，通过完善运输道路、提高决策透明度、简化通关程序、搭建经验互享平台，助力提升整体的便利化水平。

关键词：贸易便利化；农产品出口贸易；中国—东盟自由贸易区

Study on China's Agricultural Export Trade to ASEAN:

Analysis Based on Trade Facilitation

Abstract

With the deepening of world economic integration, tariff barriers in international trade have been trying to reduce after being concerned. However, the marginal contribution of Global trade has shown a weak growth trend in recent years, and even the data of some countries have regressed. Gradually, the non efficiency of trade as an invisible trade barrier has attracted attention. After a comprehensive and profound discussion, trade facilitation has been included in the "Doha development agenda", which has become a recognized new impetus for transnational economic cooperation. Therefore, countries all over the world began to promote the reform of trade facilitation from the system, hardware, procedures, platforms and other dimensions.

In 2010, China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, which is consistent with the development vision of both sides, was established, and the breadth and depth of cooperation were further promoted. Looking at the world, both sides have an important international position in the field of agriculture, and the economic cooperation of agricultural products has undoubtedly been the focus of the common development of China and ASEAN. Therefore, from the perspective of trade facilitation, how to help both sides out of the plight of the weak growth of total imports of agricultural products, and what enlightenment this will bring to China's trade facilitation reform, is the key of this paper.

First of all, this paper analyzes the development status of ASEAN member countries' facilitation, uses gravity model to make empirical analysis on the trade scale, gross national product, trade facilitation of seven of them, studies the factors influencing China's export of agricultural products to ASEAN, and finally gives countermeasures and suggestions. According to the research of this paper, there are regional differences in the level of domestic facilitation in ASEAN members, and the majority of countries are not convenient, so it is necessary to promote trade facilitation. At the same time, the export of agricultural products itself has a certain sensitivity. Therefore, the countries of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area should work together to improve the overall level of facilitation by improving transportation roads, improving the transparency of decision-making, simplifying customs clearance procedures, and building a platform for sharing experience.

Keywords: Trade facilitation; Agricultural product export trade; China-ASEAN Free Trade Area

目 录

摘 要 I

Abstract II

第一章 绪 论 1

1.1 研究背景 1

1.2 研究意义 1

1.3 研究框架 2

1.4 研究方法 3

1.5 创新和不足 3

第二章 文献综述与相关理论 4

2.1 文献综述 4

2.1.1 关于指标构建的文献 4

2.1.2 关于实证方法的文献 4

2.2 相关理论 5

2.2.1 贸易便利化的定义 5

2.2.2 贸易便利化的相关理论 5

第三章 中国与东盟农产品贸易的现状和问题 6

3.1 中国与东盟农产品贸易的现状与存在问题 6

3.1.1 贸易现状 6

3.1.2 存在问题 8

3.2 中国与东盟农产品贸易的便利化问题引出 9

第四章 中国与东盟贸易便利化水平的测量 10

4.1 贸易便利化评价体系的构建原则 10

4.2 指标体系的构建 10

4.2.1 贸易便利化指标选取 10

4.2.2 指数化处理 10

4.2.3 指标权重的分析 10

4.3 中国与东盟各国的贸易便利化水平 11

4.4 中国与东盟各国贸易便利化发展现状 11

4.4.1 中国与东盟各国的海陆空交通条件分析 11

4.4.2 中国与东盟各国的政府政策管控力分析 14

4.4.3 中国与东盟各国的进出口通关效率分析 14

4.4.4 中国与东盟各国的跨境数字化贸易分析 15

第五章 贸易便利化水平对农产品出口的实证研究 16

5.1 引力模型的设定 16

5.1.1 模型的来源 16

5.1.2 模型的构建与变量说明 16

5.1.3 数据来源与数据处理 17

5.2 贸易便利化对农产品出口影响的实证检验 18

5.2.1 整体回归分析 18

5.2.2 一级指标回归分析 19

5.3 本章小节 19

第六章 对策建议 21

6.1 完善农产品运输的道路，丰富农产品可出口种类 21

6.2 提高政府决策的透明度，优化本土农业种植结构 21

6.3 简化进出口通关的程序，增强农产品国际竞争力 21

6.4 推动东盟互联网的普及，搭建农业经验互享平台 22

致 谢 23

参考文献（References） 24

第一章 绪 论

1.1 研究背景

随着国际经济合作日趋频繁，自由化贸易的概念不断深入人心。有形贸易壁垒受到税率下降和国家政策放宽的作用，对进出口贸易的影响力日渐式微。而同时，“关注的重点开始转移到‘贸易的低效率’问题上来，这主要是由贸易规则的透明化等原因导致。^[1]”隐性贸易壁垒正逐渐阻碍着国际贸易的便利化程度。

东盟十国自古以来就是中国水天相接的好伙伴。中国-东盟自由贸易区就适于本世纪初双方签署的《中国与东盟全面经济合作框架协议》；之后达成的包含蔬菜水果等约五百种农产品的《货物贸易协议》第一次降低了税率；2010年，中国-东盟自由贸易区（CAFTA）正式成立。“但是自2012年起，由于多种因素的共同作用，我国在与东盟各国贸易中的贸易呈现出递减趋势，致使可进行贸易总额增长速度下降。^[2]”可见，若仍只通过降低关税的方式助推贸易增长，已不再能使得中国与东盟的贸易额保持一定增速。因此，越来越多的目光聚集到“贸易便利化”这一问题上来。

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