论文总字数：25301字

摘 要

黄金自古以来便是人们不断追求的一种实物货币。在欧元，美元以及英镑的国际化进程中，黄金是重要推手。在牙买加体系建立后，黄金逐步非货币化。然而黄金储备大国并未因此放弃对黄金的持有，相反，欧元区、美联储及英镑区的黄金储备仍然保持较高的比例。大国黄金储备不减反增，此现象必然存在某种政治与经济方面的原因。本文将通过图表与数据对黄金储备与货币国际化间的关系进行系统分析，文中穿插欧美等国货币国际化的进程对比，在与国际强国的对比中，不断发现黄金储备对货币国际化的意义以及人民币国际化进程中需要向外国学习的关键点。在黄金储备与货币国际化关系上，国内外学者都有或多或少的研究，但大部分研究者仅是针对某一方面，例如黄金储备增加在黄金市场上的优势，带动货币国际化；一些学者仅在文中对黄金储备与货币国际化之间的关系简单以促进一笔带过。本文中将结合学者研究，通过对黄金储备增加对一国的多方面影响以及货币国际化需要的因素进行双向推导，寻找二者的共同点来探索二者之间的传导机制。随后提出问题并建立模型，通过查找逐年的黄金储备数据以及人民币国际化数据来进行实证分析。本文模型借鉴自李婧与谢祥优于2016年发表的《黄金储备真能促进货币国际化吗？——以欧元国际化为例》中的突变点模型。本文加以拓展，用多元回归法对其进行测试，通过Eviews得出回归分析结果，证明了黄金储备对货币国际化的促进作用，同时也得到其他从变量以便后续研究。

最后，通过本文的研究，在经济危机时期，央行的黄金储备在保障人民币国际地位方面能够有突出表现。在世界经济平稳运行时期，黄金储备的增加也能够加速国家经济发展，促进国家购买力增加，购买力提升也能够助力提升经济实力。但黄金增持也应有度，保持在一个适当的范围内。在当前人民币尚未成为世界货币的情况下，大量增持黄金也会带来外汇储备流动性与收益性过低的问题，找到合适的增持量至关重要。如今，中国人民银行应当适量逐步地增加黄金储备，借此提升中国在应对经济危机时的能力，提高中国的经济实力，以此增强人民币信誉，确保人民币国际化进程的可持续。本文也结合前人研究结果，在其余方面对于人民币国际化提出合理建议。

关键词：黄金储备；货币国际化；人民币

The influence of gold reserves on Currency Internationalization

——Take RMB internationalization as an example

Abstract

Gold has been a kind of physical currency pursued by people since ancient times. In the process of internationalization of euro, dollar and pound, gold is an important driver. After the establishment of Jamaica system, gold was gradually non monetized. On the contrary, the gold reserves of the euro area, the Federal Reserve and the pound area still maintain a high proportion. There must be some political and economic reasons for this phenomenon. This paper will systematically analyze the relationship between gold reserves and currency internationalization through charts and data, interspersed with the comparison of the process of currency internationalization in Europe and the United States, and constantly find the significance of gold reserves to currency internationalization and the key points to learn from foreign countries in the process of RMB internationalization. On the relationship between gold reserves and currency internationalization, scholars at home and abroad have more or less studied, but most of the researchers only focus on one aspect, such as increasing the advantages of gold reserves in the gold market, driving currency internationalization; some scholars only briefly discuss the relationship between gold reserves and currency internationalization in order to promote one stroke. In this paper, combined with the research of scholars, we will deduce the influence of the increase of gold reserves on a country in many aspects and the factors needed for currency internationalization in order to find the common ground between the two and explore the transmission mechanism between the two. Then the paper puts forward the problem and establishes the model, and makes an empirical analysis by looking up the gold reserve data and RMB internationalization data year by year. The model of this paper is based on "Can gold reserves really promote currency internationalization" published by Li Jing and Xie Xiang in 2016? ——Take Euro internationalization as an example. In this paper, we use multiple regression method to test it, and get the regression analysis results through Eviews, which proves that gold reserves can promote currency internationalization. At the same time, we also get other dependent variables for further research.

Finally, through the study of this paper, we can find that, especially in the crisis period, the central bank's gold reserves ensure the international status of RMB. Therefore, central banks should pay more attention to the supporting role of gold reserves in a country's currency internationalization. At the same time, in the current situation that RMB has not become the world currency, a large number of gold holdings will also bring the problem of low liquidity and profitability of foreign exchange reserves, so it is very important to find the appropriate amount of gold holdings. At present, the people's Bank of China should appropriately increase the proportion of gold reserves in official reserve assets, enhance the reputation of RMB, and ensure the sustainable internationalization of RMB. Combined with previous research results, this paper puts forward reasonable suggestions for RMB internationalization in other aspects.

Keywords：Gold reserve; Currency internationalization; RMB

目 录

摘要 I

Abstract II

第一章 绪 论 1

1.1 研究背景 1

1.2 研究的意义 1

1.3 研究内容 2

第二章 文献综述 3

第三章 世界黄金储备以及人民币货币国际化现状 5

3.1世界黄金储备现状 5

3.2 中国黄金储备现状 6

3.3 人民币国际化 7

3.3.1 背景及政策 7

3.3.2 人民币国际化趋势 8

第四章 黄金储备与货币国际化间的内在联系 10

4.1 黄金储备的作用 10

4.1.1黄金储备能够使得外汇储备多元化 10

4.1.2黄金储备对一国经济有保障作用 10

4.1.3 黄金储备发展是一国实力的象征 11

4.1.4 黄金是一国货币的信誉支撑 11

4.2 影响货币国际化的主要因素 11

4.2.1 经济的总量与实力 11

4.2.2 对内对外价值稳定 11

4.3 黄金储备对货币国际化的影响机制 12

4.3.1 黄金储备通过稳定物价以提高对外购买力 12

4.3.2 通过黄金进行市场操作以控制外汇 12

4.3.3 国内外货币价值稳定强化货币信誉 12

第五章 黄金储备在人民币国际化进程中影响的实证分析 14

5.1 变量的选择 14

5.1.1因变量的选择 14

5.1.2 自变量和控制变量的选择 14

5.1.3数据来源 15

5.2 计量分析 15

5.2.1 Logit 15

5.2.2 回归分析 15

5.3 实证研究结论分析 17

5.3.1 黄金储备增加对人民币信誉有正向影响 17

5.3.2 黄金对人民币汇率有反映作用 18

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