论文总字数：20653字

摘 要

中美贸易摩擦是中美经贸关系中的重要问题，对世界其他国家和地区都产生了深远的影响。中国与美国在1997年签订《中美贸易关系协定》，并在后来加入WTO，中美贸易越来越频繁。中美贸易从一开始美国呈顺差，到2017年形成巨额逆差，其严重失衡直接导致特朗普发起贸易战。美方对中方进口加征关税，中方对原产于美国的大豆等农产品予以反制措施。中国是美国大豆最大的进口国，其农产品的进口数量多，金额大，中国以大豆作为法制措施对农产品及相关行业产生很大的影响。

基于这样的贸易背景，本文对中美大豆贸易现状和问题进行了分析。放入国际背景里分析两者贸易的影响因素，并且通过引力模型做出分析和评估。有助于理解大豆贸易的互补性、竞争性、贸易结构以及通过确定其市场地位和失衡现状更好的分析影响因素。结合以往的文献研究和最新的实况分析，提出相关措施、理解变化、呈现结果，最后综述影响因素得出贸易潜力，综合研究后进行总结。

以2002-2020年UN Comtrade Database整理数据为基础，使用引力模型分析中美大豆贸易潜力。数据显示：近年中国进口美国大豆呈回升趋势，可充分利用有利因素，促进双边大豆产品贸易进一步合作。明确影响因素度后，分析中美大豆贸易发展前景，提出相对应的发展策略，为我国大豆产业未来发展提供了可行方案。

贸易战确实会在一定程度上影响我国大豆市场，但影响程度有限，可以通过相应政策来减少大豆产业发展的损失。中美贸易摩擦期间推出的政策和施行措施对中美大豆贸易有很大影响，以前辈的经验和总结来分析今天中美大豆贸易，对农产品行业贸易及中美贸易有与时俱进的现实意义，故作此研究。

关键词：中美贸易摩擦；农产品；大豆；引力模型

Analysis of Sino-US soybean trade potential based on gravity model

Abstract

The Sino-US trade friction is an important issue in Sino-US economic and trade relations, which has a far-reaching impact on other countries and regions in the world. Since China and the United States signed the Sino-US Trade Relations Agreement in 1997 and later joined the WTO, Sino-US trade has become more and more frequent. From the beginning, the US had a trade surplus with China to a huge trade deficit in 2017. The massive imbalance directly led to Trump"s trade war. The United States imposed additional tariffs on Chinese imports, and China took countermeasures against soybeans and other agricultural products from the United States. China is the largest importer of soybeans from the United States, and its agricultural products are imported in large quantity and large amount. Therefore, China"s legal measures to take soybeans have a great impact on agricultural products and related industries.

Based on this trade background, this paper analyzes the current situation and problems of Sino-US soybean trade. The factors influencing the trade between the two countries are analyzed in the international context, and the analysis and evaluation are made through the gravity model. It is helpful to understand the complementarity, competitiveness, trade structure of soybean trade and to better analyze the influencing factors by determining its market position and imbalance status. Based on the previous literature research and the latest actual analysis, relevant measures are proposed, changes are understood, and results are presented. Finally, the influencing factors are summarized to obtain the trade potential, which is summarized after comprehensive research.

Based on the data collected from UN Comtrade Database from 2002 to 2020, this paper analyzes the trade potential of soybean between China and the United States by using gravity model. Data show that in recent years, China"s soybean imports from the United States have been picking up, and we can make full use of favorable factors to promote further cooperation in bilateral soybean product trade. After clarifying the influencing factors, the development prospect of Sino-US soybean trade was analyzed, and corresponding development strategies were put forward, which provided a feasible plan for the future development of China"s soybean industry.

The trade war will indeed affect China"s soybean market to a certain extent, but the impact is limited, and corresponding policies can be adopted to reduce the loss of soybean industry development. The policies and implementation measures introduced during the Sino-US trade friction have a great impact on the Sino-US soybean trade. It is of practical significance for the trade of agricultural products and Sino-US trade to analyze today"s Sino-US soybean trade based on the experience and summary of predecessors, so this study is made.

Key words: Sino-US trade friction; Agricultural products; Soybean; The gravity model

目 录

摘 要 I

Abstract II

第一章 绪 论 1

1.1 研究背景和意义 1

1.2 研究内容和方法 1

1.2.1 研究内容 1

1.2.2 研究方法 2

1.3 论文的重点和难点 2

1.3.1 重点 2

1.3.2 难点 2

第二章 理论基础和文献综述 4

2.1 理论基础 4

2.2 文献综述 4

第三章 中美大豆贸易现状和问题 6

3.1 中美大豆贸易现状 6

3.1.1 中国进口美国大豆数量 6

3.1.2 美国出口中国大豆占总出口比例 6

3.2 中美大豆贸易的问题 7

3.2.1 美国市场仍占据比例依然相对过大 7

3.2.2 美国相对中国的成本优势可能还在扩大 8

3.2.3 地理性差异导致难以代替 9

3.2.4 中美大豆受政治影响不确定因素可能持续增强 9

第四章 中美大豆贸易影响因素分析 10

4.1 影响因素 10

4.2 影响因素分析 10

4.2.1经济规模 10

4.2.2 人均GDP之差(DAGDP) 11

4.2.3 首都绝对距离(D) 12

4.2.4 国家间金融市场的稳定性(DE) 12

4.2.5 国际物流绩效指数(LPI) 13

第五章 基于引力模型的中美大豆贸易潜力分析 14

5.1 中美大豆贸易的潜力模型 14

5.1.1 模型构建 14

5.1.2 变量说明 14

5.1.3 数据来源 14

5.2 实证分析 15

5.2.1 实证结果 15

5.2.2 修正检验 15

5.3 贸易潜力分析结论 16

第六章 对策和建议 17

6.1 提高我国大豆产量 17

6.2 加大经济投入和政策支持力度 17

6.3 人才和技术支持 18

6.4 实现进口多元化 18

6.5 基础设施和运输水平 18

6.6 健全大豆金融市场 19

6.7 更新认识和汲取各方经验 19

致 谢 20

参考文献（References） 21

第一章 绪 论

1.1 研究背景和意义

中美贸易从美国呈顺差到2017年形成巨额逆差，其严重失衡直接导致特朗普发起贸易战，对中方进口加征高额关税，中方对原产于美国的农产品（大豆为代表）予以反制措施。中美贸易摩擦是中美经贸关系中的重要问题，不仅牵及中美两国的利益，对世界其他国家和地区也产生了很大的影响。

中国对国际大豆有巨大需求，而总供给相对不足。贸易摩擦发生时，我国大豆总消费量达到11218万吨，国内产量仅有约1400万吨左右（约占其12.5%）。国内的大豆产量可以满足我国粮食安全需求，进口的大豆主要是用于制作豆粕类动物饲料。由于需求量巨大，从农业生产结构和性价比考虑，国内农产品结构稳定，国际大豆的价格低廉，我国选择进口国外的大豆。

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