跨境电商对我国国际贸易的影响——基于国家竞争优势理论的分析

论文总字数：33570字

摘 要

如今随着时代的发展，世界一体化程度逐渐的加深，国与国之间政治、经济、文化、军事等交往也更加密切。尤其是去年突如其来的疫情，使得国际形势变得诡谲复杂。美国奉行的单边主义，区域一体化的加强，以及别国的反倾销加重；对中国的多方面遏制使得传统的进出口贸易受到了挤压，缩小了贸易的发展空间。而跨境电商作为贸易行业的一个突破性的创举，将改善我国贸易困顿的局面，激发贸易增长内在潜力。不仅能促使国内市场的平稳发展，而且能带动整个国际贸易格局的转变，有助于拉动中国经济的内需，释放强大产能。对我国的进出口商都有益处。无疑跨境电商的兴起将会扭转中国贸易发展低沉的局面，优化供应链的各个环节，增强中国厂商的能力。

本文着眼于目前科技的快速发展，中国的5G技术在世界上处于领跑地位下，凸显出的电子商务发展的巨大优势将会极大程度影响中国的国际贸易未来的走势。将波特的国家竞争优势理论作为文章的主要的理论基石，通过运用钻石模型，从构成模型的四大关键要素和两个辅助要素下笔，剖析在不同要素作用之下，跨境电商对贸易的作用机制。同时对跨境电商对贸易的影响程度进行了实证分析，建立了向量自回归模型，将2009年到2019年我国的上网人数、网站数、进出口贸易额引入模型中，研究贸易额与电商的普及率的关联性。经过实证的研究可以看出因为网络平台的跨越式进步，而提高的上网人数和网站数量将会持续推动贸易的增长。

通过实证分析得出具体结论，中国目前的电商发展存在着一定的问题，提出解决跨进电商发展问题的合理的建议，倡导行之有效的措施，将问题的解决落到实处。跨境电商的改变，要从多个主体出发，从政府、厂商、用户不同当事人的立场，提出不同方面的策略。总结提炼而来的经验将会使中国的对外开放程度进一步提升，拓宽贸易往来的渠道，提升经济发展质量，为国家制定管理跨境电商的规章制定提供了参考意见。对证实跨境电商会影响我国国际贸易发挥极大现实意义。

关键词：跨境电商；国际贸易；国家竞争优势理论

The Influence of Cross-border E-commerce on China’s International Trade: A Analysis Based on the Theory of National competitive Advantage

Abstract

Nowadays,with the development of the times, the degree of world integration has gradually deepened,and the political, economic, cultural and military exchanges between countries have become closer. In particular, the sudden epidemic last year made the international situation extremely complicated. Because of the unilateralism pursued by the United States, the strengthening of regional integration,and the aggravation of anti-dumping in other countries, the containment of China in many aspects has squeezed the traditional import and export and narrowed the developing space of trade. Cross-trade e-commerce, as a breakthrough in the trade industry will improve China’s difficult trade situation and stimulate the inherent potential of trade growth. It can not only promote the steady development of the domestic market, but also drive the transformation of the whole international trade pattern, which is conducive to stimulating the domestic demand of China’s economy and releasing strong production capacity. It is beneficial to both importers and exporters in China. Undoubtedly, the rise of cross-border e-commerce will reverse the sluggish growth of Chinese trade, optimize all links of the supply chain and enhance the capabilities of Chinese manufactures.

This paper based on the rapid development of science and technology at present, and the leading position of China’s 5G technology in the world, which highlights the great advantages of e-commerce trade’ development will affect the future trend of Chinese international trade. Taking Porter’s theory of national competitive advantage as the main theoretical cornerstone of the article, this paper analyzes the mechanism of cross-border e-commerce on trade under the influence of different factors by using the DIA model, starting from the four key elements and two auxiliary elements of the model. At the same time, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the impact about cross-border e-commerce on trade by establishing a vector regressive model, which introduces the number of Internet users, the number of websites and the export and import volume in China from 2009 to 2019 to study the correlation between trade volume and the penetration rate of e-commerce. Through empirical research, we can see that because of the leap-towards progress of the network platform, the increased number of Internet users and websites will continue to promote the increase of trade.

Through empirical analysis, we draw a concrete conclusion that there are some problems in the current e-commerce development in China, and put forward reasonable suggestions to solve the problems of e-commerce development, and advocate effective measures to implement the solutions. To change cross-border e-commerce, we should start from multiple subjects, and set forth various strategies from the standpoint of government, manufactures, and users respectively. Summarized and refined experience will further enhance China’s opening to the outside world, broaden trade channels, improve the quality of economic development, and provide references for the country to formulate regulations on governing cross-border e-commerce. It is of great practical significance to confirm that cross-border e-commerce will affect China’s international trade.

Keywords:Cross-border E-commerce; International Trade; National Competitive Advantage Theory

目 录

摘　　要 I

Abstract II

第一章 绪 论 1

1.1 研究背景 1

1.2 研究目的及意义 1

1.3 研究内容 1

1.4 研究方法 2

第二章 文献综述 3

第三章 跨境电商与我国国际贸易的发展 5

3.1 跨境电商的发展概况 5

3.1.1 跨境电商的进口现状 5

3.1.2 跨境电商的出口现状 6

3.2 中国国际贸易的发展状况 8

3.2.1 中国进口贸易现状 8

3.2.2 中国出口口贸易现状 8

3.3 跨境电商在推进国际贸易中的表现 8

3.4 跨境电商条件下国际贸易出现的问题 9

3.4.1 无纸化交易方式危机重重 9

3.4.2 国家间的实力对比进一步拉大 10

3.4.3 配套服务难以提供足够保障 11

第四章 跨境电商对我国国际贸易影响的主要方面 12

4.1 基于钻石模型的四大核心要素影响 12

4.1.1 生产要素条件 12

4.1.2 国内需求条件 12

4.1.3 相关与支持性产业条件 13

4.1.4企业战略、结构与竞争 13

4.2 基于钻石模型的两大辅助要素影响 14

4.2.1 机遇 14

4.2.2 政府 14

第五章 跨境电商对我国国际贸易影响实证研究 15

5.1 模型 15

5.2 数据 15

5.3 实证分析 16

5.3.1 单位根检验 16

5.3.2 协整检验 17

5.3.3 误差修正估计 17

5.3.4 脉冲响应 19

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