苏州市对外贸易与经济增长实证分析

论文总字数：20594字

摘 要

对外贸易与经济增长关系问题一直是经济学界研究的焦点之一，国内外学者对此各有见解。大部分学者认为对外贸易是经济增长的助推器，是有利于经济增长的；还有一些学者研究表明对外贸易与经济增长存在着反向关系，对外贸易的发展在一定程度上阻碍了经济的增长；另外还有少数学者认为对外贸易与经济增长并不相关，基本上可以说它们毫无联系。对外贸易与经济增长的关系至今没有统一化，国家不同、地区不同或者时间阶段不同都会产生不一样的表现。本文的重点在于研究对外贸易与经济增长的内在联系，分析和论证了苏州市对外贸易近些年来的经济增长状况和进出口发展情况，以及实证分析了对外贸易与经济增长的关系，最终提出了一些促进苏州市对外贸易与经济增长平稳向上发展的可行性建议。

本文共有五个部分：第一部分是绪论，包括选题的背景与意义、论文的研究方法、内容及困难点。第二部分是文献综述，结合国内外众多学者的研究，从理论与实证两方面对对外贸易与经济增长进行分析。第三部分是对外贸易与经济增长的现状分析，主要通过大量图表清晰地反映历年至今对外贸易的发展状况和经济发展趋势。第四部分是对外贸易与经济增长的实证分析，主要运用ADF检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、VEC模型、脉冲响应分析和方差分解等对苏州市对外贸易与经济增长进行实证分析。第五部分主要总结了实证的结果并提出了相应对策性的建议。

关键词：苏州；对外贸易；经济增长；实证分析

ABSTRACT

Relationship between foreign trade and economic growth has always been the focus of research in the field of economics, scholars at home and abroad in this regard different opinions. Most scholars think foreign trade is the booster of economic growth that is conducive to economic growth, and some scholars in the study shows that there is a reverse relationship between foreign trade and economic growth, the development of foreign trade in a certain extent hindered the economic growth. Besides, there are a few scholars think is not related to foreign trade and economic growth, basically can say they have no contact. The relationship between foreign trade and economic growth to now is not unified, different countries, different regions or time periods have different produce a Kind of performance. The focus of this paper is analyze the inner relationship of foreign trade and economic growth, analyses and demonstrates the Suzhou City Foreign Trade in recent years economic growth and import and export development, and empirical analysis the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth, finally put forward to promote foreign trade and economic growth in Suzhou city smoothly to the feasibility of the proposed development.

This thesis is divided into five parts: the first part is the introduction, including the background and significance of topics, research methods, content and difficult points. The second part is literature review, combining with research of many scholars at home and abroad, from theoretical and empirical two square in the face of foreign trade and economic growth were analyzed. The third part is analysis of the current situation of foreign trade and economic growth, mainly through a number of diagrams clearly reflect over the years has foreign trade development status and trend of economic development. The fourth part is the foreign trade and economic growth empirical analysis, the main use of ADF test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, VEC model, pulse response Empirical analysis of Suzhou foreign trade and economic growth by the analysis and variance decomposition. The fifth part mainly summarizes the empirical results and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures.

Key words: Suzhou; foreign trade; economic growth; empirical analysis

目 录

摘 要 I

ABSTRACT II

目 录 III

第一章 绪 论 1

1.1 选题背景及意义 1

1.1.1 选题背景 1

1.1.2 选题意义 1

1.2 研究方法与内容 1

1.2.1 研究方法 1

1.2.2 研究内容 1

1.3 研究困难点 1

第二章 文献综述 3

2.1 促进论 3

2.1.1 促进论理论研究 3

2.1.2 促进论实证研究 3

2.2 折衷论 4

2.3 阻碍论 4

第三章 苏州市对外贸易与经济增长现状分析 5

3.1 经济增长水平 5

3.1.1 国内生产总值 5

3.1.2 人均收入 6

3.2 贸易发展水平 7

3.3 对外贸易依存度 9

第四章 苏州市对外贸易与经济增长实证分析 11

4.1 数据与变量 11

4.2 单位根检验 11

4.3 协整检验 12

4.3.1 协整检验 12

4.3.2 协整方程 13

4.4 VEC 14

4.4.1 VEC方程 14

4.4.2 VEC模型 14

4.5 格兰杰因果关系检验 14

4.6 脉冲响应分析 15

4.7 方差分解分析 16

第五章 结论与建议 17

5.1 结论 17

5.2 建议 17

致 谢 19

参考文献 20

第一章 绪 论

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