隔代照料对女性劳动供给的影响——基于CFPS微观数据的分析

论文总字数：23277字

摘 要

随着中国城市化的快速推进，城市中的年轻人面对激烈竞争，老年人的隔代照料既是中国特色又缓解了家庭压力，其家庭价值不容忽视。文章使用2010年、2012年、2014年和2016年中国家庭追踪调查数据（CFPS），构建面板模型并实证分析了老年父母实施隔代照料对女性劳动供给的影响。研究发现，老年人的隔代照料活动显著提高了女性劳动参与率和劳动时间。研究的进一步结果表明，隔代照料活动对女性就业的促进作用大于男性，对城市女性劳动参与率的促进效应大于农村女性，但对劳动时间的增加程度小于农村女性。相关机制研究表明，隔代照料活动削弱了高收入对女性就业的负向作用，隔代照料活动促进了高教育程度对女性劳动参与的正向影响，但削弱了女性劳动时间的增加效应。在考虑自变量的内生性后，隔代照料活动对女性劳动参与的效应仍然显著为正，但却减少了女性的劳动时间。文章最后从重视老年人的家庭和社会价值出发，提出发放“照顾津贴”等政策建议，为增加女性就业提供了新视角。

关键词：隔代照料；人口老龄化；女性劳动供给；Probit模型；Tobit模型

ABSTRACT

With the rapid development of China's urbanization, young people in the city face fierce competition, the care of the elderly is both Chinese characteristics and ease the family pressure, so the family value of the elderly can not be neglected. This article used China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) in 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2016 to construct a panel model and empirically analyzed the effects of older generation parents' implementation of alternative generation care on female labor supply. The study found that the intergenerational care activities of the elderly significantly increased women's labor supply. The further characteristics of the study indicate that the intergenerational care activities have a greater effect on the employment promotion of women than men. The promotion of the labor participation rate of urban women is greater than that of rural women, but the increase in labor time is smaller than that of rural women. The related mechanism research shows that the intergenerational care activities have weakened the negative effect of high income on women's employment, and the intergenerational care activities have promoted the positive influence of high education on women's labor participation, but have weakened the increase effect of women's labor time. After considering the endogenous nature of the independent variables, the effect of the intergenerational care activities on women's labor participation is still significantly positive, but it reduces the women's labor time. At the end of the article, starting with paying attention to the family and social value of the elderly, we propose to issue “care allowance” and other policies and suggestions, which provide a new perspective for increasing women’s employment.

KEYWORDS：Intergenerational care, aging population, Female labor supply, Probit Model, Tobit Model

目 录

摘要 I

ABSTRACT II

第一章：引言 1

1.1研究背景和意义 1

1.2研究主要内容 2

1.3研究主要创新 2

第二章：文献综述 3

2.1个人条件与已婚女性劳动供给 3

2.2宏观因素与已婚女性劳动供给 3

2.3家庭禀赋与已婚女性劳动供给 3

第三章：隔代照料与女性就业状况：定量比较分析 5

3.1隔代照料状况 5

3.2女性劳动力市场供给状况 8

第四章：模型的建立和数据的选取 11

4.1隔代照料影响女性就业的三维度分析 11

4.1.1模型与方法 11

4.1.2数据来源 12

4.1.3变量说明 12

4.2.实证检验结果 13

4.2.1基础回归结果 13

4.3.具体机制分析 15

4.3.1稳健性分析 15

4.3.2具体机制检验 17

4.3.3内生性检验 20

第五章 基本结论与展望 21

5.1基本结论 21

5.2提出政策建议 21

5.3文章不足与展望 21

致 谢 23

参考文献 24

第一章：引言

1.1研究背景和意义

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