关于民营企业债务违约情况的研究

论文总字数：28200字

摘 要

第一章 绪论 3

1.1研究背景及意义 3

1.2文献综述 4

1.3本文的主要研究内容 6

第二章 理论基础 8

2.1财务困境 8

2.1.1财务困境含义 8

2.1.2财务困境成本 9

2.2LPM线性概率模型 9

2.2.1LPM模型的定义 9

2.2.2LPM模型的缺陷 10

2.3Logistic模型 10

2.3.1 Logistic模型的定义 10

2.3.2Logistic回归模型和线性回归模型 11

第三章 数据的实证结果集分析 12

3.1财务指标的选择 12

3.1.1初步选取 12

3.1.2相关性分析 14

3.2数据实证的结果 15

3.2.1 LPM线性概率回归模型 15

3.2.2 Logistic模型 17

3.2.3利用样本预测 20

结论 22

致 谢 23

参考文献 24

摘 要

中国的民营企业如今处于发展壮大的状态，尽管存在着基础薄弱，存在固有缺陷等等方面的问题，民营企业在曲折中不断前进，已经成为国民经济的重要组成部分。随着市场竞争越来越激烈，许多企业为增强竞争力不断地进行资本扩张、兼并重组，这在为民营企业提供机遇的同时也暗藏着危机，民营企业的发展面临着不小的阻碍。从一开始部分不景气行业的民企发生债务违约到后来部分发展良好的上市公司也卷入债务违约，民企一步步超过国企成为债务违约的主力军，并且目前外部金融环境并不宽松，市场流动性处于紧平衡的状态，民营企业在资金链的位置处于劣势，并且民企抵御风险的能力弱，受流动性趋紧的影响会比较大，债务违约的问题越来越不容忽视。

本文将以发生债务违约的民营企业作为主体，对债务违约发生的当年以及前两年的财务指标进行分析，找出预测能力强的财务指标，引起民企在债务违约方面的重视，为民企在预防债务违约方面提供参考，分析民营企业卷入债务违约潮的深层原因，使民营企业焕发生机，进一步为当前去杠杆的大环境提出政策意见，在去杠杆的同时避免系统危险的发生。

关键字：民营企业，债务违约，Logistic模型

ABSTRACT

Nowadays, most enterprises in China belong to the private enterprise. Especially after continuous reform and development, non-state-owned economy has overcome unfavorable factors such as weak foundations and inherent defects.. And it has become an important component of the National Economy. With the increasingly fierce competition on market, a great deal of enterprises keep advancing capital expansion and facilitating the merger and reorganization of enterprises in order to enhance competitiveness, which provides opportunity to the private enterprise. However, it still hides crisis under the opportunity. The development of the private enterprise is confronted with a lot of obstacles. At the beginning, debt default occurs to part of the private enterprise in depressive industry. Then, part of well developed private enterprises are involved in the debt default. Private enterprises fight again state-owned enterprises in becoming the main force of debt default. And the external financial environment is not loose at the present. The liquidity of the market is in a tight balance now while the private enterprises are at the end of the capital chain. Private enterprises’ ability to resist risks is weak. They are obviously affected by the liquidity tightening. The problem of debt default can not be ignored.

This article will take the private enterprises that have defaulted on their debts as the main body, and analyze the financial indicators of the year in which the default occurred and the previous two years. Next, I will find out the financial indicators with strong predictive ability and try to arouse the attention of the private enterprises in the aspect of default on their debts. Provide a reference in the prevention of debt default for private enterprises and make an analysis of private enterprises involved in the deep-seated causes of debt default tide so that private enterprises can revitalize. Furthermore, put forward policy advice for the current de-leveraging environment and try to avoid the occurrence of systemic dangers while de-leveraging.

KEY WORDS: Private enterprise, Debt default, Logistic model

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