论文总字数：24036字
目 录
- 绪论.................................................5
1.1 研究背景与意义.........。..............................................5
1.2 国内外研究现状分析.....................................................5
1.2.1 国外研究现状.......................................................5
1.2.2 国内研究现状.......................................................5
1.2.3 国内外研究现状分析.......。.........................................6
1.3 研究内容及框架.........................................................6
1.3.1 研究内容及路线.....................................................6
1.3.2 研究方法...........................................................6
第2章 国内大宗商品价格变动趋势及其传导机制分析............7
2.1大宗商品价格变动情况.............。....................................7
2.2 不同类别大宗商品价格变动情况..........................................7
2.2.1 石油价格变动情况及影响................。...........................8
2.2.2 大豆价格变动及其影响..............。..............................11
2.3 大宗商品价格变动的原因分析...........................................12
2.4 国际资本流动渠道下的传导机制..............。..........................12
2.4.1 实体经济传导机制.................................................12
2.4.2 资本市场传导机制............。....................................13
2.5国际贸易渠道下的传导机制.............................................13
2.5.1 商品价格传导机制.................................................13
2.5.2 商品需求传导机制.................................................13
- 不同传导机制差异分析..................................................14
- CRB对CPI、PPI影响的实证分析.........................14
3.1 模型介绍..............................................................14
3.2 CRB指数对CPI指数影响实证分析.........................................15
3.2.1 数据选取..........................................................15
3.2.2 ADF单位根检验.....................................................15
3.2.3 VAR模型建立.......................................................16
3.2.4 数据协整性检验....................................................16
3.2.5 Granger:非因果性检验..............................................16
3.3 VAR模型估计结果.......................................................17
3.4 脉冲响应函数..........................................................17
3.5 实证结果分析..........................................................18
3.6 CRB指数对PPI指数影响实证分析.........................................19
3.6.1 数据选取..........................................................19
3.6.2 ADF单位根检验.....................................................20
3.6.3 VAR模型建立.......................................................20
3.6.4 数据协整性检验....................................................21
3.6.5 Granger:非因果性检验..............................................21
3.7 VAR模型估计结果.......................................................21
3.8 脉冲响应函数..........................................................22
3.9 实证结果分析..........................................................23
第4章 如何减轻国际大宗商品价格波动对中国经济的影响的建议.23
4.1 国家政策方面应对方法..................................................23
4.2 企业方面应对方法......................................................24
- 总结与不足..........................................25
5.1 总结..................................................................25
5.2 研究不足之处..........................................................25
参考文献..................................................25
致谢......................................................26
大宗商品价格波动及其对中国经济的影响
姜梦媛
,China
Abstract:CPI、PPI and other closely related with the national economy by the index track commodity price fluctuations.We can see that the economy in China could run smoothly and quickly,if the domestic price level can be sustained and stable development are effected by inernational commodity. In this paper, the recent commodity price go potential were observed and the factors that influence the transmission mechanism analysis, put forward relevant policy recommendations, through the CRB index and the CPI, PPI index established VAR model, through the ADF test, cointegration test, Granger test, then using the impulse response function to CRB and CPI, the relationship between PPI to make a summary of the. Finally according to Analysis results are presented relevant policy advice, to mitigate international commodity price changes brought to the economic development of our country risk, to take timely effective policies to deal with the price fluctuation of China's economy, to prevent inflation, seize the opportunity, have to take measures, hasten benefit to avoid kill, is committed to promoting the smooth development of the domestic economy.
Key words:Commodities;Chinese economy; price fluctuation; influence
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