人民币升值对中国吸收外商直接投资的影响

论文总字数：20175字

目 录

第一章 前言···············································1

1.1研究背景、目的及意义··················································1

1.2文献综述······························································1

1.2.1影响中国吸引外商直接投资的因素研究·······························1

1.2.2人民币汇率影响外商直接投资的作用机制的研究·······················2

1.2.3人民币升值原因的研究·············································2

1.3研究方法与研究内容····················································2

1.3.1研究方法························································ 2

1.3.2研究内容·························································3

1.4研究思路与技术路线····················································3

1.4.1研究思路························································ 3

1.4.2技术路线························································ 3

1.5创新点与不足··························································3

1.5.1创新点····················································4

1.5.2不足···················································4

第二章 我国人民币汇率制度形成历程和人民币汇率制度的特点···4

2.1自改革开放以来我国人民币汇率制度形成历程······························4

2.2现阶段人民币汇率制度特点··············································5

第三章 人民币升值的原因··················5

3.1人民币升值的国内因素··················································5

3.1.2中国经济持续快速发展·············································5

3.2.2中国对外贸易长期保持顺差·········································6

3.3.3中国投资环境改善市场前景广阔·····································6

3.2人民币升值的国外因素··················································6

3.2.1国际社会的压力···················································6

3.2.2中国的国际地位提升大国形象凸显····································6

第四章 外商直接投资对中国的影响··························6

4.1外商直接投资对中国积极的影响··········································6

4.2外商直接投资对中国消极的影响··········································7

第五章 人民币升值对吸收外商直接投资影响因素··············7

5.1国内劳动力等原材料成本陡增············································7

5.2国内居民的相对购买力增强··············································8

5.3对人民币升值的预期····················································8

第六章 实证分析··········································8

6.1趋势图分析····························································9

6.2单位根检验····························································9

6.3协整检验···························································· 10

6.4格兰杰检验···························································10

6.5最小二乘估计·························································10

6.6多重线性检验·························································11

6.7异方差性检验·························································11

6.8相关性检验···························································11

6.9结论·································································12

第七章 政策建议··········································13

7.1充分调动国内需求，以内需促发展·······································13

7.2加强宏观调控，保持人民币汇率的相对稳定·······························13

7.3优化我国产业结构，有针对性地吸引外商投资·····························13

7.4完善基础设施建设，注重地区平衡发展···································14

7.5加强国际金融合作，维护金融发展秩序···································14

参考文献·················································14

致谢 ····················································15

一、前言

1.1研究背景、目的及意义

随着中国自1978年改革开放以来，中国大门逐渐打开，外商越来越多地进入广阔的中国市场，众所周知，中国经济的成长与发展也与外商直接投资有着密不可分的关系，而吸引外商直接投资与一国的汇率变化存在着一定的联系和影响，我们也在平时的新闻报道中经常听到西方国家呼吁中国进行人民币升值，使我对人民币升值对吸收直接外商直接投资的影响产生了兴趣。本文通过近年来人民币升值这一热门话题，找出人民币升值的国内和国外原因，归纳外商直接投资对我国产生的正反两方面的影响及人民币升值对吸收外商直接投资影响因素。本文试图通过分析自2001加入世贸组织以来近15年的人民币与美元的汇率对中国吸收外商直接投资额的影响，结合我国的特殊国情，提出自己的一些政策性的建议，使自己能对人民币升值和吸收外商投资之间的关系能有更深的理解。

1.2文献综述

1.影响中国吸引外商直接投资的因素研究

关于影响中国吸引外商直接投资的因素，殷华方和鲁明泓（2004）认为国内生产总值、东道国资金筹集难度系数、物资供应和各级政府会影响外商直接投资，其中中央政府的决策的影响力是巨大的；东道国的开放的经济和投资环境会吸引更多的外商投资，优质的FDI会有良好的示范效应；基础设施建设的完善不仅是吸收外商直接投资的重要因素，也会对东道国经济发展产生良性作用。Bigger(2012)通过分析中国近30年的外商直接投资的发展状况得出市场转型、市场成熟度也会对外商直接投资产生较大影响。而刘增强（2014）在其硕士论文中却从文化成分的方面来分析，东道国的一些优秀的文化因素会成为其经济持续增长的主要因素。陈岩、翟瑞瑞和郭牛森（2014）认为经济距离对外商直接投资呈负向关系，经济距离越大，外商直接投资越少;同样也不能忽略文化距离，文化距离过大会提高投资的风险；还提出地理距离对外商直接投资没有十分显著的影响，而技术差距过大才会对外商直接投资产生影响，技术差距过小时，影响可以忽略不计。白津卉（2015）认为外商投资时主要看重投资国的经济发展水平和稳定程度，第三产业（服务业）的发展程度，真实的投资回报率和劳动力的成本，其中只有劳动力的成本与外商投资呈反比关系，而其他几项相关因素与外商投资呈正比关系。崔志新（2015）通过对全球42个国家经济发展数据进行的实证分析得出国际化发展水平与外商直接投资的增加呈显著正相关，而东道国国家的经济发展程度与外商直接投资的流入并没有前三者表现的那么显著的正相关。从以上的文献可以看出，专家学者们都是从东道国自身和投资国两方寻找影响因素，大部分的都从经济发展水平和制度方面进行深入探究，而也有些另辟蹊径，从文化差异、两国之间的地理距离、技术方面的差距进行探究。

2. 人民币汇率影响外商直接投资的作用机制的研究

李洋（2015）认为人民币汇率变化会通过影响中国人民的购买力、进口商品和原材料的成本、金融市场和房地产市场的价格来影响外商直接投资，人民币升值会提升中国居民的购买力，降低进口商品价格和原材料的成本，优化中国的经济结构，这样更能吸引外商直接投资。岳路路（2014）认为人民币汇率变化会影响居民的人均可支配收入，从长期来看，人民币升值对吸引外商直接投资起到促进作用，而从短期来看，人民币升值对吸引外商直接投资起到抑制作用，此外他还提出GDP也会对吸收外商直接投资也会有一定的影响作用。董蕾（2014）通过运用脉冲响应等计量方法得出人民币汇率变化会影响产业结构，优化三大产业的布局，有效地带动第三产业的发展，以此吸引外商的投资，使外商充当我国产业调整的中介，促进我国金融市场的发展。洪蜀宁（2009）是基于南京地区的数据进行分析的，他得出，人民币汇率的变化主要会使外商考虑到劳动力成本，作者依据这点提出随着经济的发展，生产成本会逐步提高，直接导致外商投资转向经济相对落后的苏北和内地。从以上文献可以看出，大部分都是通过微观角度（居民收入）分析，也有一些基于数据从宏观角度（经济结构和产业结构）分析。

3.人民币升值原因的研究

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