我国一二线城市住宅房地产价格影响因素研究

论文总字数：29620字

摘 要

近年来，我国房地产价格存在着大幅波动，一线及强二线城市的房地产价格上涨尤其迅速。从今年年初开始，我国出台了一系列政策来抑制一二线城市房价的上涨，部分城市的房价相应有所回落，这也让我们看到了国家政策在房地产价格调控上起到的重要作用。而相比之下，三四线城市“去库存”却雷声大雨点小，其房地产价格走势与一二线城市表现出明显的分化。众所周知，一二线城市我国经济发展的核心，也是各界关注的焦点。另外，房地产业以住宅为主。相比于工业和商业用地，住宅房地产更与广大百姓的生活息息相关。因此，研究一二线城市住宅房地产价格的发展规律是十分必要的，这对于协助政府正确实施调控政策，指导消费者购房、投资者理性投资都有着重要作用。

基于供给和需求理论，本文首先对住宅价格影响因素从经济基本面和非经济基本面两个方面进行了定性分析。之后，将住房价格作为被解释变量，把城镇居民人均可支配收入，人口数量，利率，汇率等8个指标作为解释变量，并选取共15个一二线城市作为样本，通过面板数据模型回归进行分析，进而得出一二线城市住宅价格的主要影响因素及其影响程度。最后，根据本文的研究成果并充分结合一二线城市的实际情况，得出最终结论并提出相关建议。

关键词：房价，政策调控，一二线城市，面板数据回归

The influence factors of the prices of residential real estate in firstamp;second-tier cities in China

Abstract

In recent years, the prices of residential real estate in our country have been fluctuating sharply, with that of firstamp;second-tier cities rising in a extremely high speed. From the beginning of this year to now, the government has implemented a series of policies to dampen the rise of house price. And it seems to be working, from which we know that national policies have important influence on the house price. However, there is a serious differentiation between firstamp;second-tier cities and thirdamp;forth-tier cities as the supply of houses in thirdamp;forth-tier cities far exceeds the supply. As we all know, firstamp;second-tier cities are the core development zones as well as the social focus in our country. Meanwhile, compared with that of industrial and commercial estate, the price of residential estate are linked more tightly to the resident. As a result, studying the law of development of the prices of residential real estate in firstamp;second-tier cities is essential to guiding government to implement policy regulations correctly, purchasers to buy houses, and investors to invest rationally.

Based on supply-demand theory, this paper firstly carries out a qualitative analysis on the influence factors of house price from two aspects: economic fundamentals and non-economic fundamentals. Then we choose 15 firstamp;second-tier cities as the sample and establish a data-panel model by taking the prices of residential real estate as explained variable, CPI, population, interest rate and another 5 variables as explaining variables. After the analysis,we obtain the main influence factors of house prices as well as their influence extent. At last, taking into account the combination of the research achievement and the actual situation of firstamp;second-tier cities, we summarizes some main conclusions and also give some related suggestions.

Keywords: Prices of residential real estate, Policy regulation, Firstamp;second-tier cities, Panel data model

目 录

摘要 …………………………………………………………………………………… Ⅰ

Abstract …………………………………………………………………………………Ⅱ

第一章 绪论 ……………………………………………………………………………1

1.1 研究背景和意义 ………………………………………………………………1

1.1.1 研究背景 ………………………………………………………………1

1.1.2 研究意义 ………………………………………………………………1

1.2 研究思路和方法 ………………………………………………………………2

1.3 创新点和不足 …………………………………………………………………3

第二章 房地产相关理论及研究综述 …………………………………………………5

2.1 房地产相关理论 ………………………………………………………………5

2.1.1 房地产的含义和主要特征 ……………………………………………5

2.1.2 房地产价格定义 ………………………………………………………5

2.1.3 房地产价格特点 ………………………………………………………5

2.2 房地产价格形成机制 …………………………………………………………6

2.3 研究综述 ………………………………………………………………………7

2.3.1 经济基本面因素 ………………………………………………………7

2.3.2 非经济基本面因素 ……………………………………………………7

第三章 一二线城市住宅价格波动特征及影响因素定性分析 ………………………9

3.1 十五个主要一二线城市住宅价格波动特征 …………………………………9

3.1.1 商品住房销售价格 ……………………………………………………9

3.1.2 房价收入比 ……………………………………………………………11

3.2 房价影响因素定性分析 ………………………………………………………12

3.2.1 经济基本面影响因素 …………………………………………………12

3.2.2 非经济基本面政策影响因素 …………………………………………13

第四章 一二线城市住宅价格影响因素定量分析 ……………………………………15

4.1 模型的说明和数据指标的选择 ………………………………………………15

4.2 实证结果分析 …………………………………………………………………16

4.2.1 面板数据的单位根检验 ………………………………………………16

4.2.2 模型估计 ………………………………………………………………17

第五章 结论与建议 ……………………………………………………………………20

5.1 相关结论 ………………………………………………………………………20

5.2 政策建议 ………………………………………………………………………20

致谢 ………………………………………………………………………………………22

参考文献（References） ………………………………………………………………23

第一章 绪论

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