论文总字数：25922字

摘 要

电力工业是国家、企业和民间的支柱产业，为居民用电和企业生产提供保障，支撑全社会的平稳良好发展。对用电市场进行景气分析有利于把握地市、行业等各个维度的景气发展程度，对于理解用电市场发展规律，做出政策调整具有重要意义。

本文介绍了景气分析、合成指数和主成分分析等内容的相关概念及景气分析指标的确定和处理方法。利用江苏省近年用电市场及各经济产业指标月度数据，通过X-11季节调整方法剔除季节和不规则变动要素的干扰，基于合成指数和主成分分析法，对近年江苏省各地市、行业进行系统的景气分析，并编制用电量波动曲线，对年度间相关性和异常月份展开讨论。

本文在充分理解合成指数和主成分分析法的基础上，基于SPSS，对近年数据进行汇总处理，分析和处理运算结果，对比各地市或行业的用电市场景气状况，分类别提出和讨论各地市或行业的景气状况、成因与决策依据。对各月份电量数据进行处理，得到各年度内电量波动曲线，计算各年度间的电量波动相关性，并对造成部分年份间相关性较低的异常月份做出分析。

通过本文的工作，我们将对江苏省用电市场景气状况和用电波动状况产生清晰的了解。通过对比各地市和行业的用电市场景气程度，将江苏省13个地市进行分类，并对各类地市的用电市场景气发展状况进行分析，并得到各项所选取经济指标的利好或滞后作用。

在得到用电市场景气指数曲线之后，通过计算得到了每年年度内的用电市场电量波动曲线。根据电量波动曲线得到每两年之间的用电市场波动相关性，并根据年度间的相关性得到造成相关性较低的异常月份，更深入的探索了造成异常月份的原因。

关键词：合成指数，主成分分析法，景气指标，电量波动曲线，相关系数

Abstract

The power industry is a pillar industry of the country, enterprises and the people. It not only provides guarantees for residents' electricity use and production, but also supports the steady and sound development of the entire society. The analysis of the economic conditions of the electricity market is conducive to grasping the degree of prosperity of the city, industry, and other dimensions. It is of great significance to understand the development law of the electricity market and make policy adjustments.

This article introduces the related concepts of climate analysis, composition index and principal component analysis, as well as the determination and treatment methods of the prosperity analysis indicators. Utilizing the monthly data of electricity market and various economic and industrial indicators in Jiangsu Province in recent years. The X-11 seasonal adjustment method was used to eliminate the interference of seasonal and irregular fluctuation factors, and based on the composite index and principal component analysis method. The cities and industries in Jiangsu Province in recent years were carried out. The analysis of the system's business climate, and the preparation of power consumption fluctuation curves, discusses the correlation and abnormal months of the year.

On the basis of fully understanding the composite index and principal component analysis method, based on SPSS, this paper summarizes the data in recent years, analyzes and processes the calculation results, and compares the economic conditions of the electricity markets in different cities or industries, proposes and discusses the cities in different categories. Or the industry's economic conditions, causes and decision-making basis. The electricity data of each month is processed to obtain the fluctuation curve of the electric power in each year, and the correlation of electricity fluctuations among the years is calculated, and the abnormal month that causes a low correlation among some years is analyzed.

By the work of this paper, we will have a clear understanding of the economic conditions of the electricity market in Jiangsu Province and the conditions of power consumption fluctuations. By comparing the degree of booming electricity markets in various cities and industries, 13 cities in Jiangsu Province were classified, and the development conditions of the electricity market in various cities were analyzed. The economic indicators selected were either good or Hysteresis.

After obtaining the electricity market boom index curve, the electricity market fluctuation curve for the electricity market during the year is calculated. According to the power fluctuation curve, the correlation of the power market volatility between every two years is obtained. The abnormal month with low correlation is obtained according to the correlation between years, and the cause of the abnormal month is further explored.

KEY WORDS: composite index, principal component analysis, boom index, power fluctuation curve, correlation coefficient

目 录

摘要 I

Abstract II

第一章 绪论 1

1.1 研究背景 1

1.1.1 经济景气分析 1

1.1.2 用电市场的景气分析 1

1.2 用电市场景气分析的意义 2

1.3 国内外研究现状 2

1.4 本课题研究思路 3

第二章 用电市场景气分析指标处理及理论基础 5

2.1 用电市场景气指标的确定与处理 5

2.1.1 景气分析指标的特点及确定原则 5

2.1.2 景气分析指标的处理意义 6

2.1.3 景气指标的数据处理方法——季节调整 6

2.2 景气指数编制模型——主成分分析 7

2.2.1 主成分分析概念 8

2.2.2 主成分分析数学模型 8

第三章 江苏省分地市用电市场景气指数研究 11

3.1 模型应用相关规则制定 11

3.1.1 多月综合景气指数制定 11

3.1.2 全省平均景气指数制定 11

3.2 算例分析 11

3.2.1 指标收集与选取 12

3.2.2 地市用电市场景气指数结果展示 12

3.2.3 地市用电市场景气指数对比分析 17

3.3 结论 20

第四章 江苏省分行业用电市场景气指数编制 21

4.1 分析行业的确定 21

4.2 指标收集与选取 21

4.3 行业用电市场景气指数结果展示 21

4.4 行业用电市场景气指数对比分析 24

4.5 结论 25

第五章 江苏省用电市场波动状况分析 27

5.1 电量波动曲线 27

5.2 年度波动相关性 27

5.3 异常月份判断方法 28

5.4 算例分析——以全省用电量为例 28

第六章 总结与展望 32

致 谢 33

参考文献 34

第一章 绪论

1.1 研究背景

景气是指发展势头优良、发展层次很高的一种经济概念，简称为经济景气。在生产状况涨幅较高时，市场和商业相对而言更加活跃、就业比例增涨的一种状态。而与此对应的，不景气则代表了市场商业萧条、生产放缓的经济状态。

景气分析在国民经济的宏观调控，以及行业和企业、城市之间做出科学的发展决策中承担了十分重要的角色。景气分析主要用来判断短时间内经济发展景气与否，从而对全社会各行各业做出宏观的调控。在目前我国的发展过程中，很多行业和企业已经形成或者正在形成景气分析的预警系统，可以用来对已知和未知的部分风险进行预防。

1.1.1 经济景气分析

在最初的研究中，景气分析起源和主要应用于经济领域，而后其他各个领域也开始了景气分析的相关探索。景气分析的主要应用方向是通过对最终得到的经济特点、指标状况和波动周期进行分析，提前预测之后的经济发展趋势，从而提出政策和措施进行必要而准确的调控。

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