论文总字数：32246字

摘 要

16012509 朱安雯

指导教师 喻 洁

配电网规划是一个多目标、多约束的优化决策过程，影响配电网规划的因素有很多，本文选取了城镇化发展水平和全寿命周期管理两个因素，即从是否与城市空间信息相匹配和经济性是否最佳两个角度来对配电网规划方案进行评估。本文主要研究内容如下：

(1) 首先介绍了新型城镇化的概念，相对于传统城镇化要求新增了城乡统筹和生态和谐等发展目标；其次总结了城镇化发展与电力需求增长之间的联系，阐述了城镇化发展水平对配电网规划产生的影响；然后建立了城镇化发展水平的评估指标体系，针对新型城镇化要求提出5类一级指标，14个二级指标，逐一量化后加权求和，得到城镇化综合度指标和城镇化系数，对地区的城镇化发展情况由各分项指标定量测评得到城镇化阶段定性评价。

(2) 介绍了全寿命周期成本的基本概念和阶段划分；总结了我国配电网资产管理的现状和需要改进的地方，分析将全寿命周期管理引入配电网规划的必要性；将配电网资产全寿命周期成本分解为投资成本、运行成本、维护成本、故障成本及退役处置成本五个构成部分，建立全寿命周期成本的计算模型，并考虑城镇化水平对全寿命周期成本产生的影响。

(3) 以一个110kV变电站扩容方案比选算例为例，综合运用城镇化水平评估和全寿命周期成本管理的相关评价指标和计算模型，分析说明了城镇化水平对电力负荷增长的影响和对配电网设备全寿命周期成本的影响，即配电网规划中考虑城市空间信息的必要性。

本文的创新点在于提出了城镇化系数的概念，定义为电力设备更换周期与该设备平均全寿命周期的比值，在电力设备平均全寿命周期已知的情况下，对设备实际更换周期产生影响。城镇化水平影响电力需求的增长和电力设备的更换周期，因此在配电网规划中应考虑配电网建设与城镇化进程相匹配，在满足负荷预测要求的前提下，运用全寿命周期管理评价规划方案的经济性，进行多方案综合评估对比，最终选择最佳的方案。

关键词：配电网规划；城市空间信息；城镇化水平；全寿命周期成本

Abstract

16012509 Zhu Anwen

Supervisor： Yu Jie

Distribution network planning is a multi-objective, multi-constraint optimization decision-making process and there are a lot of factors affecting the planning. This paper selects the two factors of them-urbanization development level and life cycle cost management, to evaluate whether the project is using the urban spatial information properly and whether the cost of the project is the least. The main research contents of this paper are as follows.

1. Firstly, the concept of new urbanization is introduced, compared with the traditional urbanization, it requires new urban and rural planning and ecological harmony development goals. This paper also summarizes the relationship between urbanization development and the growth of power demand , and expounds the influence that urbanization development level has on distribution network planning. Then the evaluation index system of urbanization development level is established, in which there are 5 first class indexes, 14 secondary indexes, according to the requirements of the new urbanization. The urban comprehensive index can be calculated by summing up the product of the 14 secondary indexes and their weight, in order to get the qualitative evaluation of the stage of urbanization.
2. Secondly, the basic concept and stages of the life cycle cost are Introduced. Also, this paper summarizes the present situation of the distribution network assets management in China and the problems which need to be improved, and analyses the necessity to apply the life cycle cost management into distribution network planning. The life-cycle cost of distribution network asset is decomposed into five parts: the investment costs, the operating costs, the maintenance costs, the failure costs and the decommissioning disposal costs. With this foundation this paper establishes the calculation model of life cycle cost, considering the influence of urbanization level on the whole life cycle cost.
3. In a 110 kV substation expansion scheme comparison and selection example, this paper uses comprehensive evaluation of urbanization level and the life cycle cost management related evaluation index and calculation model and analysis, to explain the influence of urbanization level on power load growth and the life cycle cost of distribution network equipment, namely the necessity of considering urban spatial information in the distribution network planning .

The innovation of this paper is to put forward the concept of coefficient of urbanization, defined as the ratio of power equipment replacement cycle and the equipment average life cycle. Once knowing the latter one , the actual replacement cycle of the equipment can be worked out. Urbanization level affects the electricity demand growth and power equipment replacement cycle. So, in the distribution network planning, distribution network construction should match with the process of urbanization. With the demands of load forecast satisfied, through life cycle cost management to evaluate the economy of the plan, after comparison of multiple schemes , the best scheme will finally be choosed .

Key words: Distribution Network Planning; Urban Spatial Information; Urbanization Level; Life Cycle Cost

目录

摘 要 I

Abstract II

目录 IV

第一章 绪论 1

1.1 研究背景 1

1.2 本文主要研究内容及创新点 2

第二章 基于城市空间信息的城镇化评估 3

2.1 城市空间信息 3

2.2 城镇化发展评估概述 3

2.2.1 新型城镇化定义 3

2.2.2 城镇化阶段划分 4

2.2.3 城镇化发展对电力需求和全寿命周期成本的影响 4

2.3 城镇化发展水平评估体系 6

2.3.1 评估指标及计算方法 6

2.3.2 城镇化水平综合度指标 8

第三章 考虑城镇化发展阶段的全寿命周期成本评估 10

3.1全寿命周期管理概述 10

3.1.1 全寿命周期管理的定义 10

3.1.2 配电网资产全寿命周期管理的阶段划分 10

3.1.3 全寿命周期管理研究现状 12

3.1.2 配电网应用LCC管理的必要性 14

3.2 配电网设备全寿命周期成本计算模型 15

3.2.1 投资成本模型 15

3.2.2 运行成本模型 16

3.2.3 维护成本模型 17

3.2.4 故障成本模型 17

3.2.5 退役成本模型 18

3.3 城镇化系数对全寿命周期成本的影响 18

第四章 考虑城镇化系数和全寿命周期成本的变电站扩容方案 20

4.1 变压器的全寿命周期成本及参数取值 20

4.1.1投资成本参数 20

4.1.2运行维护成本参数 21

4.1.3故障成本参数 21

4.1.4退役处置成本参数 22

4.2 负荷预测及扩容方案设计 22

4.2.1扩容方案一 23

4.2.2扩容方案二 24

4.2.3扩容方案三 26

4.2.4扩容方案四 27

4.3 计算结果与方案对比 28

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